ATP 500 Rotterdam final

Alcaraz – de Minaur: 09.02.2025 15:30 CEST
H2H: 2-0

Carlos Alcaraz has won four of his last five matches. So far this season, Carlos has played in just two tournaments. Two weeks ago in Melbourne, Alcaraz lost against Djokovic in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open in four tight sets. He is the second seed this week in Rotterdam.

Carlos won against Van de Zandschulp in three sets in the opening round. After losing the second set 3-6, Alcaraz stepped up his level and demolished Botic in the deciding set. In the second round, he dominated against Vavassori in straight sets. Andrea had no answer for his game. Carlos won just over an hour, 6-2, 6 -1. It is his first appearance in Rotterdam. In the quarterfinals, Alcaraz demolished Martinez in straight sets. Once again, Carlos dominated from the very start and was unplayable. He offered no breakpoints and was great on his serve.

Today, in the semifinals, Carlos won against Hurkacz in three tight sets. He trailed 1-4 0-40 in the opening set but turned it around. Carlos broke Hubert’s serve once in the deciding set, which was enough for a comfortable win. He has yet to win a Title in an indoor event on the main tour. So far in his career, Alcaraz played 22 finals and has a winning 17-5 record.

Alex de Minaur has won four of his last five matches. Last week, he helped Australia defeat Sweden by winning against Mikael Ymer. Before the Davis Cup, he reached the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, losing against Sinner in straight sets, as we predicted.

This week in Rotterdam, in the opening round, de Minaur won against Goffin in straight sets, as we predicted. He saved all three breakpoints and was great under pressure.  In the second round, Alex won comfortably against Mensik in straight sets, not offering any breakpoints. He broke Jakub’s serve once in each set, enough for a comfortable win. In the quarterfinals, he demolished Altmaier in straight sets, as we predicted. Besides losing his serve once in the second set, Alex served well throughout the match. Today, Alex dominated against Bellucci in the semifinals, winning straight sets. In just over an hour, de Minaur lost only three games. He offered no breakpoints.

With this result, Alex will overtake Novak Djokovic on the ATP rankings list and rise to number 6. He has lost his last seven matches against top-5 players. Alex has played 19 finals so far in his career and has a losing record of 9- 10. Last year in Rotterdam, Alex finished as a runner-up, losing against Sinner in the final in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the big favorite in this matchup, but we disagree. Alex lost only eight games in the quarterfinal and semifinal matches. He enjoys playing on indoor hard courts, while Alcaraz has never had any success on indoor hard courts. We expect a very tight match that could go either way.

That being said, de Minaur covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Alex de Minaur +3.5 games handicap @2.10 @bet365

Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports