Sebastian Baez picked up the biggest title of his career at ATP Rio last year, defeating Mariano Navone in the final. Now he’s facing the pressure of having to defend these points and will take on Sumit Nagal in the opening round. Who do you think will prevail?

ATP Rio Day 2 Predictions

Luciano Darderi vs Hugo Dellien

Head-to-head: First meeting

Luciano Darderi has won just one of his last 15 matches, and that was over Dominic Thiem in Vienna, with the Austrian retiring that week. The 24-year-old might be able to handle it a bit better mentally, knowing only one of these showings came on clay, but he’ll need to find that winning feeling again soon. This is no doubt an opportunity, but Hugo Dellien doesn’t feel outmatched here with the way that his form has been trending upward over the last three weeks or so.
Prediction: Dellien in 3

Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston

Head-to-head: Gaston 1-0

Francisco Cerundolo shed some tears at the trophy ceremony in Buenos Aires, clearly disappointed with his performance in the final against Joao Fonseca. But some matches along the way had him in top shape, and it’s not like the Argentinian isn’t entering the event with momentum. Hugo Gaston will try to make him uncomfortable with all the pace variation and defeated him in Lyon last year. Maybe Cerundolo can get his revenge, but it will be a struggle.
Prediction: Cerundolo in 3

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Pedro Martinez vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Head-to-head: Ugo Carabelli 1-0

Camilo Ugo Carabelli recently produced a crazy run to the title in Rosario, winning all five matches in deciding sets. His qualifying campaign here was also quite entertaining, especially with the messy third set against Tomas Barrios Vera. Knowing the 25-year-old, he’ll probably deliver another thriller, but Pedro Martinez should be regarded as the favorite here. The Spaniard’s form since the start of 2025 is flying under the radar, and his forehand is at the peak of its powers.
Prediction: Martinez in 3

Sebastian Baez vs Sumit Nagal

Head-to-head: Baez 1-0

Sebastian Baez won Rio de Janeiro and Santiago back-to-back last year, leaving him with many points to defend this month. So far, his form doesn’t suggest he’ll pull something like that off again; even dropping down to the Challenger level in Rosario was only partially successful. But he probably shouldn’t struggle here yet, as Sumit Nagal has been in dreadful form and hasn’t won a tour-level match since July.
Prediction: Baez in 2

Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch – USA TODAY Sports