ATP Masters 1000 Paris 1/32-Finals

Arnaldi – Rune: 28.10.2024 Time TBA
H2H: first meeting

Matteo Arnaldi has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Basel, Arnaldi lost his opening match against Goffin in three tight sets. The young Italian is aiming to get into the top 30 in the rankings. Matteo had his biggest results on the slower courts. So far in his career, Arnaldi has only won one main-draw match on the indoor hard court. Last year around this time, Arnaldi played in Vienna, where he lost his 1/8-Final match against Rublev in straight sets.

Holger Rune has won three of his last five matches. This week in Basel, Rune reached the semifinals, when he lost against Mpetshi Perricard in straight sets as we predicted. Rune had no answer for Giovanni, and just fumbled under pressure. Rune is looking for a solid result this week, to get closer to the top 10 in the rankings. Last year in Paris, Rune played solidly, and reached the quarterfinals, where he was stopped by Djokovic in three tight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Rune is a big favorite in this matchup. Arnaldi holds a negative record on the indoor courts, and is not comfortable with the speed of the surface. On the other hand, Rune enjoys playing under fast conditions, and had a solid tournament last year in Paris. We expect Rune to be ready for this matchup, and to dominate from the very start.

That being said, Rune winning in straight sets is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Holger Rune winning 2-0 @2.00 @bet365

Struff – Musetti: 28.10.2024 Time TBA
H2H: 0-1

Jan-Lennard Struff has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Vienna, Jan lost his opening match against de Minaur in three tight sets. His last win was two months ago in the Olympic Games, where he defeated Cabral, who was an unranked player, in straight sets. So far this season, Jan has only five hard-court wins. His biggest result was in Munich, where he won his maiden ATP title. Last year in Paris, Struff lost his opening match against Auger-Aliassime in straight sets.

Lorenzo Musetti has won three of his last five matches. This week in Vienna, Musetti reached the semifinals, where he was stopped by Draper in straight sets as we predicted. So far this season, Lorenzo has had some solid results, such as reaching the semifinals at Wimbledon. However, he is yet to win a title at the ATP tour level. Last year in Paris, Musetti lost his opening match against Dimitrov in three tight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Musetti is the slight favorite in this matchup. We believe that he is currently in a better form than Struff. Jan-Lennard has been winless for the last two months. We believe that he will continue in that fashion, and lose once again.

That being said, Musetti winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Lorenzo Musetti winning @1.57 @bet365

Main Photo Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports