ATP 250 Montpellier final

Kovacevic – Auger-Aliassime: 02.02.2025 15:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1

Aleksandar Kovacevic has won six straight matches. Kovacevic won the Challenger title two weeks ago in Oeiras, defeating Piros in the final in straight sets. En route to the title, Aleksandar lost only one set.

In Montpellier, Kovacevic successfully qualified for the main draw tournament. He easily won both qualifying matches in straight sets. As we predicted, Aleksandar defeated Goffin in three tight sets in the opening main draw round. Kovacevic broke Goffin’s serve only once in the deciding set, which was enough for a comfortable win. He won against Bellucci in three sets, as we had predicted in the second round.  Aleksandar had an excellent serving performance, offering only one breakpoint. Alexander Bublik also had no answer for Aleksandar’s game. Kovacevic won the quarterfinal match in straight sets, as we had predicted. This time, Aleksandar saved eight breakpoints and won without losing his serve.

Today, in the semifinals, Kovacevic upset Rublev in straight sets. It is safe to say that Aleksandar got himself the biggest win of his career. He will play tomorrow in the first ATP final of his career. En route to the final, Aleksandar defeated the defending champion, first and sixth seed, as well. It is his first appearance in Montpellier.

Felix Auger-Aliassime has won four of his last five matches. A few weeks ago in Adelaide, Felix won the title, winning against Korda in the final in three tight sets. With this title, Felix now has six ATP titles under his name. A week later, Felix was upset by Davidovich Fokina in the second round of the Australian Open, losing in five sets after being 2-0 up.

This week in Montpellier, Felix won the second-round match against Cazaux in straight sets. He trailed 2-5 in the second set tiebreak but turned it around. In the quarterfinals, Auger-Aliassime won against Bu in straight sets. He offered no breakpoints and was excellent on his serve throughout the match. Felix ended the match with 11 aces and zero double faults. Today, in the semifinals, de Jong kept it close against Felix as we predicted. However, Auger-Aliassime found the way and won in straight sets. He even saved consecutive set points in the second set.

Last year in Montpellier, Felix reached the semifinals, losing against Bublik in three tight sets. He will play his 11th ATP final match tomorrow. Felix won his last ATP title last year in Madrid on clay, and his last ATP title on hard court happened in 2022 in Marseille.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Kovacevic is the big underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He has nothing to lose. No one expected him to reach the final this week. On the other hand, Felix tends to lose his temper in important matches like this. Aleksandar is a big server, and we expect him to keep this match tight. Who knows, he will maybe even get his first ATP title tomorrow.

That being said, Kovacevic covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Aleksandar Kovacevic +3.5 games handicap @1.75 @bet365

Main Photo Credit: Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports