Almost exactly 12 months after their first meeting in the 2023 ATP Hamburg semifinals, Alexander Zverev and Arthur Fils will now face each other in the final of that event. The German is trying to defend his title while his young opponent is playing in his first ATP 500 championship match. Who do you think will prevail?

ATP Hamburg Final Prediction

Alexander Zverev vs Arthur Fils

Head-to-head: Zverev 2-0

Alexander Zverev has been nothing short of incredible this season, as he’s No. 3 in the ATP Race and leads the tour with 44 tour-level wins. Even the knee injury sustained at Wimbledon hasn’t stopped him from dominating his opponents this week, with only Hugo Gaston coming close. The 27-year-old survived that encounter 7-5 in the 3rd and was at his overwhelming best in all the other matches. Zverev was born in Hamburg and has plenty of good memories from that event, including his breakout run in 2014 and the title last year.

Arthur Fils was disappointed with his first half of 2024, but it seems like the Frenchman is really rounding into form by now. Making a Slam in the second week at Wimbledon was a bit of a surprise, and now he’s also into his first ATP 500 final. The Frenchman never looked back after dropping the opening set this week to Jaume Munar and is now into the biggest final of his career on the back of two Top 20 wins (Holger Rune and Sebastian Baez).

The matchup is tough for Fils, though. Zverev was pushed by Gaston this week, and the Frenchman unleashed all his variety and unpredictability on his opponent. While the youngster has that absolutely incredible topspin forehand, one shouldn’t expect too many surprises. There’s not much he can do to potentially fluster Zverev and the World No. 4 has been deadly when facing lower-ranked opponents in 2024 (35-4 against players ranked outside the Top 20). The defending champion serves big and is so tough to hit through as well. For someone like Fils, who’s really up and down, that’s usually a threatening combination.

Prediction: Zverev in 3

Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane – USA TODAY Sports