Carlos Alcaraz v Andrey Rublev (1300 GMT)
There must be a chance this match doesn’t even take place.
Alcaraz was clearly below par in his defeat to Casper Ruud on Monday and afterwards admitted suffering illness, concluding: “I feel bad”.
He also spoke of stomach problems and that looked to be the case again on Tuesday when his practice session lasted less than 10 minutes, a fact which raised doubts about him playing again Turin.
For the record, Grigor Dimitrov would step in were Alcaraz to withdraw.
Yet, I suspect Alcaraz will do all he can to make it onto court.
A lot of the players down the years have felt obliged to play at the ATP Finals given it is the tour’s marquee event and Alcaraz is one who takes his obligations to the sport seriously.
Playing whilst ill probably isn’t the best move if we’re honest though and if he does, then Rublev has to be worth a bet at 17/10, especially with firms who will pay out if Alcaraz quits mid-match.
The Russian didn’t do a great deal wrong in his opening defeat to Alex Zverev. He was simply outserved and virtually anyone would have been given how Zverev played that night.
Importantly for me, he didn’t let his frustrations get the better of him, as has so often been the case, and he shouldn’t be too down about his performance in that one.
Mentally, he should also take plenty from the fact he beat Alcaraz in his own back yard the last time they met. That was in Madrid in May when Rublev triumphed on the Spaniard’s favourite surface.
He’ll certainly prefer to look back at that rather than last year’s meeting on this very court when Alcaraz won 7-5 6-2 and didn’t face break point.
Still, given what’s happened in the past couple of days, it’s hard to see how Alcaraz will hit such heights.
At the prices, Rublev has to be worth a go – we’ll just get stakes back if the match doesn’t happen.
Alex Zverev v Casper Ruud (1930 GMT)
Zverev was superb on serve in his straight-sets win over Andrey Rublev on Monday night and a repeat here would surely be too good for Ruud.
The head-to-head does give the Norwegian some hope – it’s only 3-2 to Zverev – but conditions in Turin heavily favour the German.
It remains pretty speedy and that aids that big Zverev serve. He made the most of the fast conditions in Paris recently where he won the title and he’s started here in the same groove.
The tour stats also help show why I expect the German to win this.
First, only Jannik Sinner has won a higher percentage of service games in 2024 than Zverev (90%).
Second, while Ruud sits a decent 11th across all surfaces for return games won, it’s highly significant that when that list has the hardcourt filter applied, he slips down to 25th, winning only 19.7% of return games.
It’s also notable that in the pair’s only previous meeting on indoor hard – in Paris in 2021 – Zverev won 7-5 6-4 without losing his serve.
Of course, Ruud will come into this one buoyant after beating Carlos Alcaraz on Monday but he was the first to admit it wasn’t Grade-A Alcaraz. Deep down, he’ll know this is a bigger challenge.
I’m expecting Zverev to win this but he’s only 4/7 to do so in straight sets. I was hoping for bigger and can’t back him at that price.
If Ruud serves well, he can at least keep it close with over 21.5 games at 10/11 of possible interest.
However, for my bet I’m going to turn to the aces market where Zverev is 10/11 to serve over 8.5.
He’s managed this in seven of his last eight matches, hitting exactly nine against Rublev the other day.
He banged down 19 – on clay – the last time these two met at Roland Garros, a match which lasted four sets, while their previous hardcourt meeting saw Zverev hit 10.
The way he served against Rublev was very impressive, although his first-serve percentage of 70% was actually a little below his average for the season, so there’s still room for improvement.
Obviously were this to be pushed to three sets, the bet would stand a very good chance but I feel it can land in two and will back it accordingly.
Posted at 1520 GMT on 12/11/24
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