Stefanos Tsitsipas has held sizable head-to-head leads in every one his matchups at the Dubai Duty Free Championships this week, and that won’t change in Saturday’s final.

Tsitsipas was 3-0 against Lorenzo Sonego, 8-1 against Karen Khachanov, 4-1 against Matteo Berrettini, and 2-0 against Tallon Griekspoor. Up next for the world No. 11 is Felix Auger-Aliassime, who trails their series 6-3.

The rivalry has been a tale of two very different times. Auger-Aliassime came out on tour like gangbusters and Tsitsipas was among his many victims, as the Canadian won their first two matches on the main tour in easy straight sets after also dominating the Greek in juniors. However, the tide has since turned. Tsitsipas has won six of their last seven meetings, including four in straight sets. Auger-Aliassime has not defeated Tsitsipas on an outdoor hard court since their first-ever showdown back in 2019 at the Indian Wells Masters.

Tsitsipas should have the advantage once again this weekend. The 26-year-old was incredibly impressive against Tallon Griekspoor during a 6-4, 6-4 semifinal victory, a result that leaves him well rested for the title match. That was preceded by defeats of Sonego (straight sets), Khachanov (three), and Berrettini (three).

Auger-Aliassime has played a ton of tennis this week–and this entire season as he looks to bounce back from a couple of disappointing years in 2023 and 2024. The world No. 21 is the ATP leader in match victories with a 16-4 record and he has already lifted trophies in Adelaide and Montpellier. Auger-Aliassime is one win away from a third title in 2025 after taking out Alexander Bublik, Nuno Borges, Marin Cilic, and Quentin Halys earlier this week. The 24-year-old has required three sets in all four of his matches.

Both guys are playing awesome tennis, but the edge goes to Tsitsipas due to his head-to-head success and Auger-Aliassime’s certain fatigue.

Pick: Tsitsipas in 3