ATP 500 Dallas final

Shapovalov – Ruud: 09.02.2025 20:00 CEST
H2H: 0-2

Denis Shapovalov has won four of his last five matches. The young Canadian has struggled with his form for the last few seasons. The last match he played before the ATP Dallas was at the Australian Open, where he lost against Musetti in the second round.

However, he played well this week in Dallas. He won the opening match against Kecmanovic in three tight sets. He served great, hitting 20 aces with only four double faults. Denis won against Fritz in the second round after losing the first set 2-6. After he lost the opening set, Denis started serving better and did not lose his serve in the second and third sets. In the quarterfinals, Denis easily won against Machac in straight sets. He trailed 1-3 in the opening set but successfully turned it around, winning in tiebreak. In the second set, Denis dominated from the start until the end, winning 6-0. Today, in the semifinals, Shapovalov won against Paul in straight sets, as we predicted. He offered and saved three breakpoints.

It is his second appearance in Dallas. Denis lost in the opening round against Wu in his debut campaign in straight sets. With this result, Denis climbed the rankings and is now a top-40 player.

Casper Ruud has won six straight matches. Last week, Casper did his best for Norway in the Davis Cup. He won both singles matches in straight sets, but Norway still lost against Argentina, as we predicted. Before the Davis Cup, Casper played at the Australian Open, losing in the second round against Mensik in four sets.

In the opening round in Dallas, Ruud won against Duckworth in three sets. Casper was great under pressure, saving 10/11 breakpoints.   It is his first appearance in Dallas. He defeated Mmoh in straight sets in the second round, as we predicted. Casper won the opening set convincingly 6-1. In the second set, he lost his serve once, but other than that, Ruud was a better player and deservedly won in straight sets. In the quarterfinals, Nishioka retired in the second set against Ruud. Today in the semifinals, Ruud defeated Munar in three tight sets, as we predicted. Munar was 5-4 up in the third set and served for the match. Ruud stayed calm and turned the match around.

Casper never had any success on indoor hard courts. It is his first appearance in Dallas. Around this time last year, Ruud played in Los Cabos, reaching the final. In the final match, Casper lost against Thompson in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, this will be an almost 50-50 match, but we disagree. Casper Ruud is a clay court specialist who has never had any success on indoor hard courts. On the other hand, Shapovalov had a tough draw this week but still found a way to get those wins. He enjoys playing on fast courts, and we expect him to win the title.

That being said, Shapovalov winning is a value bet.

Main Photo Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports