ATP 250 Buenos Aires final

Cerundolo – Fonseca: 16.02.2025 20:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Francisco Cerundolo has won four of his last five matches. The last match he played before the ATP 250 Buenos Aires was at the Australian Open, where he lost against de Minaur in the third round.

This week in Buenos Aires, Cerundolo won the opening round match against Darderi in easy straight sets. He dominated from the start until the end.  Francisco won against Juan Manuel Cerundolo in straight sets in the second round. He was great under pressure, saving all four breakpoints. Francisco needed just over an hour for a comfortable win. Cerundolo upset Zverev in three sets in the quarterfinals, as we had predicted. Alexander was the first seed this week in Buenos Aires, but Francisco had other plans. After losing the opening set 3-6, Francisco reduced his unforced errors and started playing better. In the deciding set, Cerundolo saved all three breakpoints and deservedly won. Today, in the semifinals, Francisco won against Pablo Martinez 6-2 6-4. He was great under pressure once again, saving all seven breakpoints he offered.

Cerundolo aims for the fourth ATP title. He won two of his ATP titles on clay. Last season, Francisco lifted the trophy in Umag. It is his seventh appearance in Buenos Aires. He was the finalist in 2021 here in Buenos Aires, losing against Schwartzman in the final.

Joao Fonseca has won four of his last five matches. Fonseca won the Challenger title in Canberra in his season-opening tournament without losing a set. Fonseca qualified for the main draw tournament in Melbourne without losing a single set. In five tight sets, he was stopped in the second main draw round against Sonego.

It is his first appearance in Buenos Aires. In the opening round, Joao won against Etcheverry in straight sets. Etcheverry had no chance against Joao. As we predicted, Coria kept the match tight against Fonseca in the second round. After losing the opening set 2-6, Fonseca started playing better and successfully turned the match around. Joao lost the opening set against Navone in the quarterfinals but successfully turned the match around. He spent almost three hours on the court in a three-set thriller. Fonseca trailed 3-5 in the deciding set and saved even consecutive match points.

Today, in the semifinals, Fonseca won against Djere in three sets after spending almost three hours on the court. He was 5-3 up in the second set and had a chance to close out the match, but he fumbled under pressure. However, in the deciding set, Fonseca kept his level and closed out the match. Around this time last year, Joao played at the Challenger Tour level.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, this will be an almost 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Cerundolo is a more experienced player, and we believe his experience will help us win this matchup. Besides losing the opening set against Zverev, Cerundolo won all matches in straight sets and was dominant. On the other hand, Fonseca won the last three matches in three tight sets. He spent a lot of time on the court, which affected his body. We expect Cerundolo to dominate in this matchup and win with the help of the crowd.

That being said, Cerundolo winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Francisco Cerundolo winning @1.80 @bet365

Main Photo Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports