The semifinals of the ATP event in Bastad have a very peculiar set of participants: we have Rafael Nadal, with his 22 Slam titles, 92 overall titles, 1078 match wins… then we have three players who have a combined 53 match wins at ATP level (nine of them this week) and 0 ATP finals reached. On paper, Nadal should be the overwhelming favorite to win the tournament, but current circumstances dictate that his victory is far from assured, with all the other three players surely believing in their chances to have the best week of their careers thus far.

ATP Bastad Semifinal Predictions

Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Nuno Borges

Head-to-head: Tirante 1-0 Borges

This is a huge opportunity for both players to reach a maiden ATP final. While Borges is the overall better and higher ranked player, Tirante is younger and won their one previous matchup, this year in a grass challenger. Aside from a first final, both players have a lot at stake here: a win will take Borges to a career high ranking of #46 (and could go even higher if he wins the final), while Tirane will return to the top 100 if he wins this match. It’s arguably the biggest match of both of their careers so far and a lot will come down to how they manage their nerves. Borges has a bit more experience at this level and that might make the difference in the end in what should be a very close match.
Prediction: Borges in 3

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Rafael Nadal vs Duje Ajdukovic

Head-to-head: first meeting

Nadal won an epic four-hour match against Navone today and is now the clear favorite to win a first ATP title since Roland Garros 2022. A title here would give him a much needed confidence boost ahead of the Olympic Games, where he surely believes he can aim for a second Gold Medal at his beloved Philippe Chatrier court. Ajdukovic is having an incredible week, but at this point Nadal will probably be too dialed in to be beaten by such an unexperienced player, even if his level is nowhere near what he once was.
Prediction: Nadal in 2

Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports