Third seed Karen Khachanov has made his way to the ATP Almaty final despite dropping the opening set to Aleksandar Vukic on Saturday. Meanwhile, Gabriel Diallo is putting together a breakthrough run and has already secured his Top 100 debut. Can the Canadian keep going to pick up his maiden ATP Tour title as well? Who do you think will leave Kazakhstan with the winner’s trophy?

ATP Almaty Final Prediction

Karen Khachanov vs Gabriel Diallo

Head-to-head: Khachanov 1-0 Diallo

Khachanov has endured some tough moments this year especially in the summer, but making a second final in one season is something he’s done just for the second time in his career. The Russian has had plenty of practice returning big serves this week, defeating Otto Virtanen and Beibit Zhukayev in his first two matches. Aleksandar Vukic took the opening set against him on Saturday, but the 6-time ATP Tour champion stood strong.

Facing him in the final will be Diallo, who before this week had never even made an ATP Tour quarterfinal. This isn’t coming out of nowhere though with the Canadian’s record since the US Open hard court swing standing at 28-7. With that incredible stretch he’s already secured his Top 100 debut, which might help him keep a clearer head on Sunday. Diallo took out second seed Alejandro Tabilo and fourth seed Francisco Cerundolo on the way to the final, delivering two superb performances to upset his higher-ranked opponents.

Khachanov and Diallo played just two months ago in the Canadian’s hometown, Montreal. That encounter ended up going to the favourite a bit more comfortably than expected. With the way that Diallo is playing this week, he’d love to push Khachanov much harder. His serve has been thriving in the altitude conditions and he’s making good use of his athletic potential to sustain a rally if needed as well.

Against this opponent Diallo will need to go more all-out than he did in his recent matches as a locked-in Khachanov isn’t going to be as easy to outrally as Tabilo or Cerundolo. The Russian plays an efficient, high-percentage game and facing big servers the whole week can only help him here. Overall, it’s clear that it’s Diallo who will be less in his comfort zone here.

Prediction: Khachanov in 3

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