It’s the final of the final Atlanta Open on Sunday afternoon, and it will be either Jordan Thompson or Yoshihito Nishioka sending the tournament into retirement with a title.

Thompson will try to equal Nishioka with two career ATP titles, but it won’t be easy for the Australian against an opponent who has mostly owned him in the past. Nishioka leads the head-to-head series 5-1, including 4-0 on the main tour. Thompson has not defeated the left-hander since 2018, and since then Nishioka has prevailed twice–both times in three sets. The Japanese veteran got the job done 7-5, 5-7, 6-4 at the 2019 Cincinnati Masters and 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-2 at the 2023 Paris Masters.

Regardless of Sunday’s outcome, this is an impressive and much-needed result for Nishioka. The world No. 86 had not been past a quarterfinal this entire season and went into Atlanta with a losing record for his 2024 campaign (10-11). He started to turn things around with a quarterfinal showing on the grass courts of Eastbourne and now it has all come together for him this week. Nishioka is through to the championship match following defeats of Zachary Svajda, Mackenzie McDonald, Frances Tiafoe, and Arthur Rinderknech–surrendering just one set to Rinderknech in the process.

“Yoshi’s another tricky lefty,” Thompson noted. “Such a good competitor; annoying game style. I think I’ve only beaten him once and he’s beaten me five times. Most of the time it’s been a battle, but he’s definitely got my number.”

Then again, Nishioka has not yet defeated the 2024 version of Thompson. The world No. 41 has won 23 tour-level matches this season, including his first ATP title in Los Cabos. He is one victory away from a second triumph after taking out Harold Mayot, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Jerry Shang. Thompson’s three-hour and three-minute grind against Davidovich Fokina was the longest match in tournament history and his three-setter against Shang on Saturday afternoon was another tough one.

“We know each other, many times playing [each other]–even practicing (together),” Nishioka commented. “It’s going to be long rallies, for sure. He has a great serve and tries to come into the net. It’s going to be a mental battle for tomorrow; we both want to win. Who can play aggressive [on] the important points?”

Thompson will definitely have to be aggressive and try to shorten points, because he is admittedly fatigued. The No. 4 seed may need to finish this in straight sets, but that is a difficult task against an opponent he has knocked off just once in six tries. All four of their tour-level meetings have required a decisive set–all won by Nishioka.

Given Nishioka’s relative dominance this week and his history of success in this particular matchup, he should have the slight edge on Sunday.

Pick: Nishioka in 3