After only 11 games, the Premier League title race has narrowed, with Liverpool leading the charge. Their win over Aston Villa, coupled with Manchester City’s defeat to Brighton and Arsenal’s 1-1 draw with Chelsea, has given them a five-point lead over City and a significant nine-point gap on the chasing pack. But is the race really just between Liverpool and City?

Opta’s supercomputer places Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal with a slim 3.5% chance of winning the title, with Chelsea even lower at 0.2% and other contenders at virtually zero. Yet, former Arsenal forward Theo Walcott remains cautious, saying, “I would not write off anyone who is up there now, absolutely not. Liverpool at some point are going to stumble and they will have injury problems like every other team.” This sentiment reflects a wider feeling that Liverpool’s blistering form might not be invincible, despite their current lead.

Can Arsenal Mount a Comeback?

Arsenal fans started this season with high hopes, believing they might finally go one better after pushing City close in recent years. With City showing signs of vulnerability – four consecutive defeats across competitions – this season appeared to be Arsenal’s opportunity. Yet Liverpool, under new boss Arne Slot, have emerged as the team to beat, securing 28 points from a possible 33, a tally that has left Arsenal nine points adrift of top spot for the first time since the final day of 2021-22.

Reflecting on Arsenal’s struggles, Walcott commented, “The difference with Arsenal at this moment in time is that they are lacking in goals, while they are not conceding many – but at this point of the season it’s important to factor in who they have played.” He pointed out that Arsenal have faced a tough schedule, playing six of last season’s top 10 teams, with five of those fixtures away from home. Arsenal have also been without their main playmaker, Martin Ødegaard, for most of this period. Ødegaard’s return against Chelsea added much-needed creativity, and his assist for Gabriel Martinelli’s goal was a reminder of his influence on the team.

Still, former striker Troy Deeney issued a stark warning on MOTD2, saying, “Lose one more time and I think Arsenal are out of it. They are going to have to beat Liverpool and beat City as well.” The challenge for Arteta’s side is clear: they need a perfect run against the league’s top sides if they’re to remain in contention.

History is Not on Arsenal’s Side

History rarely favours a team that falls so far behind so early in the campaign. No team without games in hand has ever won the Premier League title after being nine or more points adrift after 11 matches. Manchester City managed a comeback in the 2013-14 season, but even then, Arsenal had played one more match than the rest of the title contenders.

Former Gunner Paul Merson was blunt in his assessment, “He [Arteta] has got to make sure it gets down to six points rather than go to 12. I think they’ll do well to catch Liverpool now. It might stay at nine until the end of December. If it goes to 12 then it’s finished.”

Arteta himself acknowledges the uphill battle. Speaking on the challenges ahead, he remarked, “We need to win, win, win, win, and win, because these guys don’t stop winning.” With Liverpool’s current form, even an extraordinary finish for Arsenal may not be enough to reclaim ground. If Arsenal were to win every remaining game, they would end on 100 points. However, Liverpool’s consistency puts them on track for 97 points—a daunting benchmark.

The Challenge Ahead

For Arsenal, the immediate path is clear but incredibly demanding. Not only must they overcome their current form struggles, but they must also defeat both Liverpool and City in the coming weeks to stand a chance. Liverpool’s form under Arne Slot has been formidable; they’ve combined tactical discipline with attacking verve, and their defensive solidity has given them an edge not seen since the peak of Jürgen Klopp’s tenure. Arsenal, meanwhile, must rediscover their scoring touch to remain relevant in this season’s title race.

Though Arteta’s squad may face doubters, Walcott remains optimistic, reminding fans, “People tend to forget all of that when they look into how Arsenal are not playing at the same level they were at last year, but for me, it is one of the reasons not to write them off in the title race.” However, with Liverpool’s current pace, even Arsenal’s best might not be enough.