First Downs per Route Run (1D/RR)

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Overperformer: Kayshon Boutte (New England Patriots)

1D/RR: 0.063
Result: 3 receptions, 59 receiving yards, 1 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 13.4 (half-PPR)

Kayshon Boutte overperformed in terms of his 0.063 1D/RR, which isn’t an ideal number for sustained fantasy relevance. However, he ran 32 routes and caught a great deep ball from Drake Maye for a touchdown, flashing some big-play potential. While Boutte isn’t someone I’d rush to pick up or start, even in deeper leagues, his involvement in the offense is something to monitor. The fact that Maye threw for over 200 yards, a big improvement over Jacoby Brissett‘s earlier performances, makes Boutte worth keeping on the radar in case his usage grows.

Underperformer: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions)

1D/RR: 0.16
Result: 4 receptions, 37 receiving yards, 1 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 11.7 (half-PPR)

Amon-Ra St. Brown underperformed with his 0.16 1D/RR, but the Lions’ blowout win over Dallas made it less significant. It’s definitely frustrating to watch Detroit put up 40 points and see St. Brown walk away with just 11.7 fantasy points, but that’s what happens when your Pro Bowl lineman, Penei Sewell, is getting in on the action. St. Brown was efficient with his opportunities, securing four targets, four receptions, and four first downs. He’ll be just fine going forward, so there’s no need to panic despite the quieter week.

Targets per Route Run (TPRR)

Check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run deep dive as well!

Overperformer: Mack Hollins (Buffalo Bills)

TPRR: 0.087
Result: 1 receptions, 8 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 7.3 (half-PPR)

Mack Hollins overperformed with his low 0.087 TPRR, continuing to be an end zone threat but offering little else. He saw just two targets in the game, and with Amari Cooper now coming to town, Hollins is likely about to be phased out of the offense entirely. His role has been diminishing, and unless he starts seeing more consistent targets, he’s not someone to rely on moving forward. The touchdown opportunities may fade even further with Cooper in the mix.

Underperformer: Noah Brown (Washington Commanders)

TPRR: 0.30
Result: 4 receptions, 58 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 7.8 (half-PPR)

Noah Brown looks primed to be the WR2 for the Commanders moving forward, and I, for one, want him on my roster. While he may have underperformed his impressive 0.30 TPRR this past week, that target rate is extremely promising. With Jayden Daniels emerging as the real deal at quarterback, Brown is positioned for a strong role in this offense. If this target share continues, Brown could become a solid fantasy asset in the weeks to come. By no means am I trying to throw him into my lineup immediately, but I am interested in throwing him on the bench to give it one more week to see what happens.

Yards per Route Run (YPRR)

Overperformer: Xavier Legette (Carolina Panthers)

YPRR: 0.719
Result: 3 receptions, 23 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.8 (half-PPR)

Xavier Legette overperformed his 0.719 YPRR, but the Panthers’ offense has shown some life since Andy Dalton replaced Bryce Young. While Legette is getting more involved, it’s clear that Diontae Johnson is the first read in this offense. Until Legette starts seeing more consistent targets, he’s best viewed as an emergency play or a flex option in deeper leagues. If X does find more work in this offense, he could be a nice option down the stretch run, but for now, his upside remains capped until his role becomes more defined.

Underperformer: Rashod Bateman (Baltimore Ravens)

YPRR: 2.536
Result: 4 receptions, 71 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.1(half-PPR)

Rashod Bateman underperformed his impressive 2.536 YPRR this week, but his downfield role remains promising with a 13.5 aDOT. While his target rate isn’t great, Lamar Jackson consistently looks his way on deeper routes, giving him big-play potential. Bateman has shown improvement this year, and with bye weeks approaching, he could become a decent option for fantasy managers in need of a fill-in. His ability to stretch the field makes him a player to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

Applying PRS to Predict Fantasy Points

As we wrap up the analysis for Week 6, it’s clear that AJ Brown’s two stellar performances have rocketed him to the top of the Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) rankings, showcasing his explosive potential. Meanwhile, Cooper Kupp has maintained his presence in the top 24 all season long, and with his return to action, we can expect Matthew Stafford and Kupp to continue their dynamic partnership — affectionately dubbed “The Breakfast Club” — to produce some serious fantasy points together.

Garrett Wilson has made his way into the top 24 as well, demonstrating the budding chemistry with his quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. However, with Davante Adams now in town, it’s worth keeping an eye on how this impacts Wilson’s opportunities. Notably, Allen Lazard has been a solid performer so far this year, and the addition of Adams might hit him harder than anyone else on the team, potentially shaking up the fantasy landscape.

If you’re looking to make a savvy move, consider trading for Josh Downs while he’s still under the radar. His role is growing, and he could be a key contributor as the season progresses. Best of luck as we head into Week 7!