Connecticut may see job losses if Congress does not reauthorize Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits for Medicaid, but will still fare better than most states, according to a recent analysis by the Commonwealth Fund. 

The Commonwealth Fund is a nonprofit organization with a mission “to promote a high-performing, equitable health care system that achieves better access, improved quality, and greater efficiency, particularly for society’s most vulnerable, including people of color, people with low income, and those who are uninsured.”

The analysis findings estimate that, if the tax credits are not reauthorized, almost 600 people would lose their jobs in Connecticut. Analysis authors estimate that, nationwide, 286,000 jobs will be lost. This estimate includes jobs lost in health care and other industries.

“Ending the tax credits would not only increase costs for consumers but also create a cascading decline in economic activity,” a news brief about the study states. “As insurers receive fewer federal subsidies, they could cut payments to hospitals, doctors’ offices, pharmacies and other providers. In turn, health care employers would likely reduce jobs and spending, leading to broader projected job losses across industries like retail, real estate, and manufacturing.”

The states that would be hit the hardest are the ones that did not expand Medicaid on their own, the analysis claims. The Commonwealth Fund team identified 15 states they believe will suffer the most if the tax credits are not renewed. The list did not include Connecticut.

For years, the state has been expanding its Medicaid program, although many argue that the changes haven’t gone far enough. 

In 2019, Gov. Ned Lamont signed an agreement that guaranteed hospitals a 2% rate increase through 2026. Despite this, hospitals are still losing money every year, mostly due to Medicaid and Medicare payments, Inside Investigator reported. This year, the Connecticut Hospital Association (CHA) called Lamont’s proposed budget “devastating to hospitals, their workforce, and their patients.”

At the start of the legislative session, State Comptroller Sean Scanlon proposed an increase to Medicaid reimbursement rates for health care providers, and Democrats are championing that cause. 

Across the country, physicians and medical professionals make significantly less money when treating Medicaid patients, when compared to patients with private insurance. In some cases, commercial insurance pays 90% more than what Medicaid does. 

Many health care associations, including the CHA and the Connecticut State Dental Association, have called for higher reimbursement rates this legislative session.

The Connecticut Health Policy Project estimates that, by 2028, Connecticut will need 5,700 more providers in five critical areas. Many health providers say that they cannot make a living when reimbursement rates are so low. This is especially true for providers who primarily treat Medicaid patients and operate out of low-income areas.

In 2024, more than 830,000 people renewed or retained a state Medicaid plan, a.k.a. HUSKY, or a Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) in the state, according to the Connecticut Department of Social Services (DSS).

Depending on the estimate, between 3% and 10% of all healthcare expenditures are for fraudulent purposes or claims, according to the National Health Care Anti-Fraud Association (NHCAA). That translates to tens of billions of dollars being stolen on the low end, and over $300 billion on the high end. 

In his proposed budget, Lamont recommended increasing state funding for Medicaid reimbursements by a total of $70 million in the next three years. In January, after President Donald Trump ordered a freeze on all federal grants and loans—which was promptly blocked by a federal judge—Connecticut Democrats proposed increasing funding for Medicaid reimbursement for more than $250 million over four years.