The Third Saturday in October brings us one of college football’s best rivalries, as No. 11 Tennessee hosts No. 7 Alabama this weekend. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game using an expert model that picks winners and projects scores.

Tennessee started slow but had enough to get past rival Florida last week, moving to 5-1 overall and with a 2-1 mark in SEC play that includes a stunning loss at unranked Arkansas two weeks ago amid some concerns for the passing attack even as the Vols ground game and defense dominates.

Alabama is coming off a 2-point win at home against South Carolina, trailing late in that game and nearly giving it away after a special teams mistake that put the Gamecocks in scoring position, but the Crimson Tide came up with a takeaway to avoid another big upset.

What do the analytics expect from this classic SEC rivalry matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Alabama and Tennessee compare in this Week 8 college football game.

So far, the model favors the Crimson Tide over the Volunteers, but in a very close game.

SP+ predicts Alabama will defeat Tennessee by a projected score of 29 to 26 and to win the game by an expected margin of just 3 points.

The model gives the Tide a narrow 56 percent chance of outright victory over the Vols.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 26-26 (50%) last weekend.

Alabama is a 2.5 point favorite against Tennessee, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 56.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -155 and for Tennessee at +135 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …

A plurality of bettors currently expect the Volunteers to make this close against the Crimson Tide, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Tennessee is getting 57 percent of bets to either pull off the upset at home, or to keep the game within the narrow line.

The other 43 percent of wagers predict Alabama will win the game and cover the spread.

Other analytical models also predict the Crimson Tide will take down the Volunteers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Alabama is projected to win the game outright in a majority 53.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Tennessee as the expected winner in the remaining 46.1 percent of sims.

Alabama is projected to be just 1.2 points better than Tennessee on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Alabama is third among SEC teams with a 68.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.8 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Tennessee a win total prediction of 9.4 games and ranks it fourth in the SEC with a 44.7 percent shot at the playoff.

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 2:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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