The Cincinnati Bengals aren’t done yet. Cincinnati has very slim playoff odds — ESPN’s Football Power Index gives them just a 5.1% chance — but they’re still above zero.
But how exactly can the Bengals make the playoffs? The easiest scenario was laid out by NFL Playoff Scenarios. That scenario is as follows:
1. The Bengals must win out. This one seems pretty obvious. The Bengals have to get to 9-8. Not only are two of the Wild Cards already at nine wins, the third (Chargers) is at 8-6 and has the head-to-head tiebreaker on the Bengals, so Cincinnati has to get ahead of Los Angeles. We’ll dive more into that shortly.
2. The loser of Thursday’s Broncos-Chargers game has to then lose their last two games. As mentioned before, the Bengals have to get above the Chargers because of the Week 11 loss. So if the Chargers lose Thursday, they then would have to lose their last two games. Unfortunately for the Bengals, L.A.’s last two games are against the 3-11 New England Patriots and the 2-12 Las Vegas Raiders. Probably not happening.
The Broncos, however, are a different story and much more realistic. If Denver loses Thursday, the Bengals would need the Broncos to then also lose their last two games. The first of those two games just so happens to be against the Bengals, meaning the Bengals can play themselves into a playoff-clinching scenario in Week 18 against the Steelers by taking care of business against their biggest obstacle.
The Broncos then finish the season against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bengals would have to hope the Chiefs are still needing to play for the No. 1 seed, otherwise they may rest starters and that would be bad news for the Bengals. But if the Bengals catch the Broncos at nine wins, they would beat out Denver for the final spot…if one more scenario also plays out.
3. The Colts and Dolphins each have to lose one of their final three games. If the Bengals and Broncos are tied at 9-8 or if the Bengals are the only 9-8 team among the teams we’ve listed, they make the playoffs. We’ve already touched on the Chargers and why the Bengals would need them to finish 8-9 to beat them. So why are the Colts and Dolphins relevant here?
The reason is that the Bengals lose tiebreakers to both the Colts and the Dolphins. The Bengals are 3-6 in conference games, an inferior record to both the Colts and Dolphins, both 5-5. The Bengals didn’t play either team, so it next goes to conference record. If either or both teams also get to 9-8, they’d be 7-5 in conference while the Bengals would be 6-6. That knocks the Bengals out.
So, for example, if the Bengals, Broncos and Colts all get to 9-8, the Bengals would be out due to their inferior conference record. Same if we swap the Colts for the Dolphins. So this is why the Bengals need those two to lose once to get them out of the way.
The Colts finish the season against the Titans at home, Giants on the road and the Jaguars at home. Miami has the the 49ers home, then they visit the Browns and Jets.
Just for fun, since the odds are severely against it, if all the Wild Card contenders finish 9-8, it would be the Colts, Dolphins and Ravens getting in while the Chargers, Bengals and Broncos would be left out.
Division tiebreaks eliminate the Bengals (swept by the Ravens) and the Broncos (swept by Chargers in this scenario). Then, between the Colts, Dolphins, Ravens and Chargers, the Ravens and Chargers drop out on conference record (IND 7-5, MIA 7-5, BAL 5-7, LAC 6-6). The Colts beat the Dolphins head-to-head which would give them the No. 5 seed.
Repeat the process to fill in the rest of the spots. Miami would win the three-way tie over the Ravens and Chargers on conference record for the No. 6 seed and then the Ravens would get the No. 7 seed via their Week 12 win over the Chargers (division tiebreaks eliminate the Bengals and Broncos in both cases).
