A beautifully awful College Football Playoff race still has more surprises to come

Posted by Admin November 26, 2024 Football

Everybody sucks. There, happy now?

As we move forward in this critical juncture of the College Football Playoff, the teams in this demolition derby of a race have never looked so flawed.

And yet so beautiful.

This is what we all wanted. A real, honest-to-goodness race in the final weeks of the regular season dictating the precious 12 spots in the tournament.

Want to bet on a horse now? Don’t be ridiculous. Ole Miss was a lock before last weekend. So was Alabama.

And if you think Ohio State is a lock now as a high seed, I’ve got three syllables that will spook the ever-loving Bucknut out of you: Mee-shee-gan.

“The minute it hit triple zeroes on that clock,” Ohio State coach Ryan Day said last weekend after the No. 2 Buckeyes beat No. 5 Indiana, “It was onto the team up north, onto the rivalry game.”

Because if Michigan – which has won three in a row in the bitter rivalry – beats Ohio State, the Buckeyes won’t play in the Big Ten championship game (unless Indiana loses to pitiful Purdue). That could be the difference in being the No. 1 seed (with a Big Ten championship), or a fall to the No. 7 seed.

From a potential first-round bye to hosting an SEC team in the first round. Just in case you’ve forgotten: Ohio State is 2-13 all-time vs. the SEC in the postseason.

This is the beauty of the new 12-team format, weekly November pressure revealing flaws and creating heroes. The dynamics of the race turn with every change of the Saturday television window.

You’re in, you’re out. You need help, you don’t have a chance.

Until the following week, and the next round of the improbable unfolds. Until the next gimme putt against a team with a coach on the hot seat turns into 575-yard par-4, carrying a ravine into an undulating green surrounded by water.

Or basically how Lane Kiffin felt last weekend.

By the time this thing plays out on the first Saturday of December, two of the four teams securing first-round byes will more than likely be teams that wouldn’t have dreamed of reaching the CFP in the original four-team format.

Arizona State, one of the three worst Power Five programs in 2023, and Colorado (not far behind the Sun Devils last season) could be playing in the Big 12 championship game for a first-round bye. So could SMU, which had to literally buy its way into the ACC — and by buy, I mean pay the league a $200-plus million entry fee.

Meanwhile there’s unbeaten Oregon, which is No. 1 by default. Because who else fits?

The Ducks can’t possibly stumble at this point, can they? All that stands between them and the No. 1 seed, a first-round bye and a quarterfinal game in the Rose Bowl against the No. 8/9 winner, is a home game against bitter rival Washington and the Big Ten championship game.

But don’t mistake that inevitable as invulnerable. Oregon’s two biggest wins were both in Eugene, both ending on the last play of the game, and games Ohio State and Boise State could’ve won.

And in case this means anything to anybody: Ducks coach Dan Lanning is 0-3 vs. Washington.

Georgia did things to Texas that no one should have to endure — did you see Longhorns QBs Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning on the sidelines, in utter shock? — and also lost to Alabama and Ole Miss.

The same Alabama that was clobbered by double-digit underdog Oklahoma last weekend, six weeks after getting humiliated by, of all things, Vanderbilt.

The same Ole Miss that needed to beat Florida and Mississippi State to reach the playoff, and somehow figured a way to screw it up last weekend in Gainesville — losing to a Gators team whose coach (Billy Napier) was so embattled, athletic director Scott Stricklin two weeks ago issue a vote of confidence to keep angry boosters at bay.

Then there’s the Indiana wing of the CFP, or those with sparkling records and horrific schedules. It includes:

Notre Dame, which keeps beating service academies (have you seen that Irish schedule?) and keeps climbing in the CFP poll. Somehow, everyone has forgotten all about the home loss to something called Northern Illinois.

Penn State, whose grand contribution to the season has been four disgusting attempts to score on the Ohio State defense from the three yards out and whiffing every single time. For their effort, the Lions will likely be the No. 6 seed.

Then there’s Boise State, whose biggest win is a three-point loss at Oregon. Because as much as Ashton Jeanty deserves the Heisman Trophy, Georgia Southern, Portland State and the Mountain West schedule isn’t scaring anyone.

Finally, we give you Tennessee and Clemson. Both get to essentially sit out the final two games of the season, and both have as good a chance as anyone to reach the CFP.

Clemson beat Citadel last weekend, and Tennessee beat Texas-El Paso. The Tigers can lose to South Carolina on Saturday and still reach the ACC championship game (with a playoff spot on the line) if Miami loses at Syracuse.

The Vols, meanwhile, only have to win at Vanderbilt to likely secure a spot in the CFP.

The same Vanderbilt that beat Alabama, which beat Georgia, which beat Texas, which hasn’t played anyone and is currently the No. 3 seed.

Yeah, everybody sucks.

But it sure is fun.

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.