The NFL’s “Black Monday” is almost upon us. It’s the first unofficial day of the offseason for non-playoff teams, and traditionally when the majority of coaching firings are announced — with the search for a new era beginning.

We already know at least three teams who will be searching, with the Bears, Jets, and Saints all firing their coaches midseason and working under interims. As it stands, it doesn’t seem like any of these interim coaches have done enough to convert their temporary statuses into full-time jobs, so they go without mentioning here.

Instead we’re looking at the established coaches who could be out of a job come Monday, and there are some surprises.

Trending the wrong way — could be gone on Black Monday

Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars

There’s been a lot of silence out of Jacksonville, but when the dust settles it’s tough to imagine that Doug Pederson will return to the Jaguars. This season began with so much promise, with owner Shad Khan believing this was the most-talented Jaguars team since he took over as owner — and on paper he wasn’t wrong, but everything went off the rails.

Pederson’s decision making seemed out of touch this season. His staff let him down. Trevor Lawrence regressed after signing a massive contract, and everything went wrong. Six months ago it felt like the Jags would be vying for an AFC South title, and now they’re picking in the Top 10.

For all these reasons it wouldn’t be surprising to see Pederson gone on Black Monday.

Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders

This experiment didn’t pay off. Pressure from inside the locker room led to the Raiders keeping on Pierce after he was an interim coach in 2023, and on paper it seemed like a good move. Normally a franchise known for big, splashy, dumb coaching hirings made an intelligent choice and it felt like this was going to pan out.

A year later, it didn’t. Pierce is clearly out of his depth as a full-time head coach, and he needed another year or two of seasoning. The Raiders are under massive pressure to win right now, and with a quarterback change on the horizon it makes sense to just make wholesale changes across the board.

Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts

A surprise name to crop up in the last few weeks, Shane Steichen is getting a heaping helping of blame for the Colts missing the playoffs once again. Reports vary from his fighting for his job, to being a lock to return in 2025 — which puts this whole situation in jeopardy.

For what it’s worth: Firing Steichen would be a massive mistake. The Colts have largely out-swung their talent in each of the last two years, and the biggest blemish on the coaching staff is the unbelievable mishandling of Anthony Richardson, who was thrust into a starting role too early and has struggled to gain his form because of it.

Still, there’s not many better options this team could hire — so the status quo is the right move.

Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots

This would be a bit of a stunner to see the Pats drop Mayo after just one season, but there have been grumblings out of New England that the first year head coach doesn’t have a lot of fans in the locker room or front office.

Less of a case of bad performance causing a team to fire their coach (the Pats were exactly as bad as we thought they’d be in 2024), and more a case of “this isn’t the right guy,” don’t be surprised is Mayo becomes a “shock” firing after just one year.

Trending up — could have saved their job

Brian Daboll, New York Giants

If there’s one major argument for keeping Brian Daboll it’s that he inherited a lot of messes. Daboll didn’t ask for Daniel Jones to be his starting quarterback or for the front office to let Saquon Barkley leave.

Deep down the Giants know their problems are deeper, and independent of Brian Daboll. Down the stretch he’s managed to get this haphazard team swinging above their weight class and beating the Colts in Week 18.

This organization knows it couldn’t court a top-tier coach if they fired Daboll, while every needy team in the league would inquire about the Giants’ coach if he got fired. That’s why he’s got a better chance of staying at this point.

Needs to perform in the playoffs

Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles’ head coach was on the fast track to being fired after Philly’s horrific start, but the team steadied itself a high playoff seed and seemingly saved his job.

That said, there’s still some murmurs that there’s a strong belief Sirianni was bailed out by the stellar play of Saquon Barkley this season (he was), and with a contract only set to run through 2025 he’s at a crossroads where the team will either need to commit to him long-term, or cut bait and find a new coach.

Everything could hinge on the playoffs for Sirianni’s future. A win or two would likely keep him with the Eagles, but if there was a stunning loss in the Wild Card round then anything could happen.

Who the hell knows

Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

Trying to guess what the Cowboys will do is a bit like sending a five-year-old into their room and tell them to dress themselves. There’s a good chance they’ll come out looking bizarre, or wearing an old Halloween costume.

It’s abundantly clear McCarthy isn’t the guy to lead Dallas back to Super Bowl glory, and yet the team seems content to maintain the status quo. That makes this job a total tossup where it wouldn’t be surprising if McCarthy stays, or the team hires a wild coach nobody saw coming.