We haven’t even reached this year’s Super Bowl, but the debate about draft position, positional rankings and rookie landing spots for 2025 fantasy football has begun. One of the most important things to decipher over the offseason will be how to interpret the performance of players in 2024 and use it to predict their stats in 2025.

Plenty of the 2024 superstars will rightfully claim their place at the top of 2025 draft boards and average draft position (ADP), but what about some of the more controversial players in 2024? What about players who saw uneven performances including some weeks among the best at their position, but others where they looked like they did not belong on fantasy football rosters?

The NFL and fantasy football offseason are the perfect times for these kinds of debates. Below we will look at five of the most polarizing players headed into the 2025 NFL season and debate where they might land in upcoming drafts and fantasy ADP.

Most Polarizing Fantasy Football Players

Sam Darnold (QB – MIN)

Throughout the 17 weeks of the traditional fantasy football season, Sam Darnold looked like the player who was supposed to be a star when he was drafted third overall by the New York Jets in 2018. With an average of 19.5 fantasy points per game, Darnold was the QB8 on the season. He had three times as many games over 20 fantasy points (nine) as he did games with fewer than 15 (three). Darnold led the Vikings to a 14-2 record in those 17 weeks and looked poised to make major noise in the playoffs.

Then Week 18 and the Wild Card Round of the playoffs happened.

In Week 18, with a chance to clinch the NFC North division against the Detroit Lions, Darnold was awful, scoring only 7.6 fantasy points while throwing for 166 yards, zero touchdowns and just 4.0 yards per attempt. That set up the Vikings to take on the L.A. Rams in the first round of the postseason, and things didn’t get much better. Darnold managed just 245 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception and took nine back-breaking sacks. After two duds to end the season, the Vikings (and fantasy managers) have a decision on their hands.

Sam Darnold and Jordan Addison are electric

pic.twitter.com/VOYpPtMCwz

– Steve Palazzolo (@StevePalazzolo_) December 29, 2024

The Vikings could retain him on the franchise tag, sign him to a long-term deal or simply let him walk in favor of Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy. There were some warning signs this season, despite the typically strong fantasy outputs. Darnold was just 20th in clean pocket completion percentage (68%). He was 17th in accuracy rating and also 15th in overall true completion percentage. He made up for it, however, by ranking fourth overall in red-zone completion percentage (64.6%), leading to big touchdown numbers.

Verdict: A wide receiver duo of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison can mask a lot of mistakes, not to mention a tight end like T.J. Hockenson. If Darnold remains with the Vikings, draft him in the QB10-14 range. If signs elsewhere, he will fall further down the quarterback fantasy football rankings.

Rico Dowdle (RB – DAL)

It was a tale of two halves for Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle. Through Week 8, Dowdle was the RB33 in half-PPR fantasy points per game with 9.6 per contest. His usage was erratic and his performance was like a roller coaster with scores ranging from 18 points to zero. From Week 9 to the end of the season, however, it was a different story. In that span, he averaged 12.1 fantasy points per game and was the RB19. He was RB16 among those who played at least eight games in that span.

Highest % of carries with 3+ yards after contact in 2024 (min. 150 carries):

1. Rico Dowdle (51%)
2. Bucky Irving (48.8%)
3. Derrick Henry (48.6%)
4. Chuba Hubbard (48.4%)
…
28. De’Von Achane (35%)
29. D’Andre Swift (34%)
30. James Cook (32%)
31. Jonathan Taylor (31%)

– Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 17, 2025

Health was one of Dowdle’s biggest assets in 2024, along with his ability to catch passes, convert at the goal line and show the ability to handle a full workload. That’s the glass-half-full perspective. The other side of the coin would require we point out that Dowdle will be 27 next season and the Cowboys are almost certainly going to draft a running back to at least share work with Dowdle. You won’t have to look far to find a mock draft where the Cowboys take uber-prospect Ashton Jeanty out of Boise State.

If that happens, expect Dowdle to take a backseat to Jeanty and see his workload decrease drastically.

Verdict: If the Cowboys end the offseason by not drafting or signing a running back with full workload capability, draft Dowdle as an RB2. Otherwise, he is a clear RB3/bench material assuming a sharp drop in usage.

Chris Godwin (WR – FA)

Through the first seven weeks of the 2024 NFL season, three wide receivers played all of their team’s games and averaged at least 19 PPR fantasy points per game. Those receivers were Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Chris Godwin. Before Godwin was lost for the season with a dislocated ankle, he was incredible, never once scoring below 12.5 PPR points in his seven games played. The combination of Godwin, Baker Mayfield‘s career year and Liam Coen’s offensive scheme was working magic now that Godwin was moved back into the slot receiver role.

Which will teams care more about in the 2025 offseason? Godwin’s injury or his resurgence in the first third of 2024? Chris Godwin is a free agent heading into his age-29 season in 2025. He just finished a three-year, $60 million extension with Tampa Bay and now will be able to test the open market. With the emergence of Jalen McMillan and Mike Evans‘ continued dominance, there are rumors the Buccaneers will be fine to let Chris Godwin walk. Where he ends up landing will determine a lot about his fantasy value.

People aren’t going to remember how amazing Chris Godwin was this season until his injury… and it’s a shame.

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– Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner) January 21, 2025

There should be no lingering issue from the ankle injury, and Godwin is young enough that we don’t have to worry about age or a lack of speed popping up unless something goes wrong with his rehab. He is still as reliable as they come (100% true catch rate and 16th-best yards per route run) but carries so many unknowns heading into 2025.

Verdict: Assuming Godwin lands on a team that will allow him to play slot receiver and has a competent quarterback, he can remain a solid, late WR2 or early WR3 that might have the opportunity for upside in 2025.

Keenan Allen (WR – FA)

If you look at any early 2025 wide receiver rankings, you are likely to find a large gap between where Keenan Allen is ranked for next year and how he finished the 2024 season. From Weeks 8-17, Allen was the WR18 in half-PPR total points, including four games with over 17 fantasy points. He became Caleb Williams‘ wide receiver safety valve when Williams spent so much time under pressure last year. Allen’s former PPR glory was on full display as the season ended.

Keenan Allen this year with the Bears ????

121 Targets
70 Receptions
744 Receiving Yards
7 Receiving TDs pic.twitter.com/OBAnFphECU

– Marquee Bears (@BearsMarquee) January 16, 2025

However, many are predicting Rome Odunze will make the sophomore leap and join DJ Moore as one of the top two options in a new-look Chicago offense. With Matt Eberflus long gone and Ben Johnson now in town with his creative and dynamic play-calling, the Bears offense should take a step up, but will that include 33-year-old Keenan Allen? That elevation for Odunze could happen naturally with Allen being a free agent, or it could happen even if Allen signs a short-term deal to come back to Chicago.

Under the hood, there were some signs of aging with Allen. He was just 34th in air yards, 45th in yards after the catch and 65th in yards per route run. He relied on tremendous volume at the end of the season to gain his fantasy production. In year two, Odunze will likely step up. He was better than Allen in air yards share, deep targets and red-zone targets. With better protection and play-calling coming in 2025, Odunze is likely the Bears receiver you want after Moore is off the board.

Verdict: Keenan Allen will likely be just a Flex play in PPR leagues in 2025 assuming he re-signs with the Bears or plays in a similar situation. He can’t be the Amon-Ra St. Brown in Johnson’s offense at this stage of his career and would find himself a clear third in the pecking order behind Moore and Odunze.

Isaiah Likely (TE – BAL)

Week 1 of the 2024 season seems like it was played 100 years ago, but that opening game between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs was Isaiah Likely’s coming-out party. He led all tight ends that week with 21.6 half-PPR points (nine more than anyone else at the position) and relegated Mark Andrews to a big fat donut. A lot of FAAB dollars were dumped frivolously for Likely, but things never got close to that Week 1 high again.

Over the next 16 weeks, Likely passed 10 fantasy points just three more times, and never scored more than 14.8. He finished with seven games with fewer than five fantasy points. Meanwhile, Andrews caught fire in the second half of the season and finished as the TE7 in fantasy points per game from Weeks 10-17.

Likely clearly looks more athletic on the field and is five full years younger than his tight end counterpart, but Lamar Jackson trusts Andrews in the red zone. In Andrews’ last eight games of the regular season, he caught seven touchdowns. Likely caught three touchdowns over the final 11 games of the regular season.

Verdict: As long as Andrews is healthy and in Baltimore, Likely should be viewed somewhere in the TE16-20 range.