Photo:

Casey Laughter / Eclipse Sportswire

The 2023 Breeders’ Cup was relatively formful compared to past editions and yet it still featured six different races in which a horse 15-1 or higher finished in the top two.

With deep, competitive fields in the majority of Breeders’ Cup races this year, it would be no surprise to see that number increase even further in 2024.

Below I analyze five horses who should outrun their odds and are legitimate win candidates in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup.

Arthur’s Ride – Breeders’ Cup Classic, 15-1

The son of Tapit would have been 5-1 or less in this race following his strong win in the Whitney Stakes (G1). It appears that he returned too soon and regressed off that big effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and now he is suddenly three times the price he would have been.

Bill Mott’s colt is going to the lead in this race. Fierceness, City of Troy and Next will be tracking him, but out of that trio only Fierceness truly has enough early speed to really pressure Arthur’s Ride. Fierceness employed rating tactics to help him stay the distance in the Travers and I believe similar tactics will be used again, leaving Arthur’s Ride unbothered. 

A classy front-runner on a track that favors speed is dangerous. Combine the fact that he has earned the two highest speed figures in this field and is trained by a Hall of Famer and you are left with a solid value play.

Post Time – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, 12-1

The Whitney Stakes (G1) may prove to be a key race as this colt ran a solid third against Arthur’s Ride. He also finished second in the Met Mile (G1) and picked up a few romping wins at Laurel Park along the way this year. He has never been out of the money in 13 career starts and has never been worse than second at a mile. 

A two-turn mile looks like the absolute perfect distance for this colt and he is one of the only true closers in a race loaded with front-runners. He will be flying late along with Domestic Product, but Post Time’s experience around two-turns could prove to be the difference at a much bigger price. 

Luxembourg – Breeders’ Cup Turf, 12-1

Aidan O’Brien’s classy horse has won a Group 1 race at the ages of 2, 3, 4 and 5, which is almost unheard of these days. He was in top form last year when finishing a half a length behind Auguste Rodin, who proceeded to win the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Though he has been less consistent this year, he showed that he is still capable enough to win a race like this when he earned a 122 Timeform Rating in his Coronation Cup (G1) win in May. He has tactical speed and a history of performing well over left-handed tracks, which are signs that he should adapt well to racing in America.

Ag Bullet – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, 10-1

Cogburn is a deserving favorite in this race and will be tough to beat, but it is hard stomach taking 7-5 odds in a five-furlong turf sprint in which a smooth trip is far from a guarantee.

For those looking for a better value, this filly is a tempting option. She is undefeated in four career sprints, has a win over this course, has the speed to be in contention and earned a figure in her Kentucky Downs win that puts her squarely in the mix. Fillies and mares have a history of doing well in this race when it is held in California and she could be the next in line.

Her chances were bolstered even more when two of the top European sprinters in this race, Believing and Bradsell, drew posts 1 and 12 respectively.

Remake – Breeders’ Cup Sprint, 8-1

The Japanese invader has won half of his career races, including the Riyadh Dirt Sprint in Saudi Arabia. He easily handled Skelly that day and was competitive with Nakatomi in Dubai.

He had a strong prep victory leading up to this race and will have a ton of pace to chase as this year’s Sprint is loaded with speed. He will be rolling late and should not be taken lightly.