Fantasy managers love debating player values, trade targets, waiver wire options and more. Yet, there is one opinion universally shared across the fantasy football community: Injuries are the most challenging part of the game we all love. Given the aggressive nature of the sport, injuries are unfortunately an inevitable topic of conversation after every NFL game week. This week’s injuries, however, felt particularly damaging for many rosters. Those who roster the likes of Chris Olave, CeeDee Lamb, Drake London and A.J. Brown may head into a playoff push without their star wide receivers.

That said, there were certainly some bright spots in this week’s games. Many superstars, including the likes of Saquon Barkley, De’Von Achane and Garrett Wilson, reminded us why they were selected in the early rounds of fantasy football drafts. We also saw several players who, despite struggling to make an impact early on, have started to produce at an intriguing rate.

In what follows, I’ll highlight some players poised for a shift in perceived value in the weeks to come. For each profile, I’ll assess whether the recent change in production is a mere anomaly or is set to continue as the NFL season approaches its end.

NFL Players Trending Up & Down

Fantasy Football Risers

Chase Brown (RB – CIN)

At the beginning of the season, Chase Brown primarily occupied a secondary role to Zack Moss in the Bengals’ backfield. With the limited touches he got, it became abundantly clear Brown was the far more explosive player. The eye test suggested Brown was poised for an increase in touches. The next question was whether the Bengals’ play-callers would come to this same conclusion.

It would appear as though in Week 9, after a slew of injuries and ball security issues for Moss, the Bengals finally handed the keys of the backfield to Brown. The latter capitalized on Moss’ absence and accumulated 32 touches for 157 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in the Bengals’ win against the Raiders.

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF) efficiency metrics, Brown’s appointment as the starting running back has been long overdue. He’s outperformed Moss in terms of rushing grade, yards after contact per attempt and elusive rating. As long as the Bengals offense continues to feature Brown heavily, he’ll continue to provide efficient production through the ground game.

Chase Brown was able to be a true “feature back” today against the Raiders because Zack Moss was out with an injury.

The Bengals had one of their most effective games out of their backfield.

I asked Chase Brown if getting more snaps had anything to do with his success. He… pic.twitter.com/T5FolqENld

— Marshall Kramsky (@marshallkramsky) November 4, 2024

Many fantasy analysts preach the idea of emphasizing players who are part of good offensive ecosystems. Cincinnati boasts an impressive group of weapons, headlined by the superstar receiver tandem of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Joe Burrow is in the running for MVP and has this offense firing on all cylinders at the moment. With plenty of offensive threats to be accounted for on this team, defenses will struggle to contain the electric sophomore running back. He should be ranked as an RB2 moving forward.

Taysom Hill (TE – NO)

Taysom Hill has often been the subject of criticism from the fantasy football community. This is mainly due to his featured role in the red zone, which has often led to touchdowns being “vultured” from surrounding pieces in the New Orleans Saints’ offense. Hill has had an injury-riddled start to the 2024 campaign, which has mostly made him irrelevant for fantasy football purposes.

However, upon his return from injury in Week 9, the Swiss army knife resumed his key role in Klint Kubiak’s system. He earned nine total touches and produced 16 fantasy points in the Saints’ loss to the Panthers. In the dire tight end landscape, this level of involvement is invaluable and warrants immediate fantasy attention.

The Saints’ lack of weapons also bodes well for Hill’s volume. The team lost standout sophomore wide receiver Rashid Shaheed to a season-ending knee injury a few weeks ago. Chris Olave’s Week 9 concussion is his second of the season and, given the player’s history of head trauma, may keep him sidelined for multiple weeks. Alvin Kamara and Hill are the only remaining weapons with a proven history of success with Derek Carr.

Hill’s path to production is quite unconventional. He rarely earns high reception totals as elite tight ends typically do. His four receptions in Week 9 were a season-high. That said, with the aforementioned injuries to the main pass-catchers in this system, expect Hill to see an increase in targets. Through the ground game, Hill has consistently served as a change-of-pace runner to spell Kamara. To this end, Hill will continue to see his fair share of carries and will likely be the preferred goal-line back.

Hill offers a unique combination of rushing and receiving production. His touchdown upside is higher than most at the tight end position. While his usage should continue to be monitored, I’ll go out on a limb and say Hill will be a weekly starter from here on out.

Fantasy Football Fallers

DJ Moore (WR – CHI)

Savvy fantasy managers may have noticed Caleb Williams‘ steady improvement along with Chicago’s favorable wide receiver schedule and identified DJ Moore as an ideal trade target. Unfortunately, those who executed this move are likely regretting this decision as Moore’s struggles have persisted over the past couple of weeks. He’s now failed to surpass 33 receiving yards in four of the past five games.

In hindsight, it was certainly an uphill battle for Moore to replicate his 2023 breakout season. With Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze now in the fold, Moore’s competition for targets is greater than ever. What’s more, rookie quarterbacks tend to have quite a steep learning curve in the NFL. Aside from the likes of C.J. Stroud and Justin Herbert, most rookie signal-callers fail to support consistent fantasy production for the receivers in their offense. This appears to be the case for the Chicago Bears in 2024.

29. Since Keenan Allen returned to a full snap share in Week 5, here’s how many 15+ fantasy-point weeks CHI receivers have had.

D.J. Moore: 1
Cole Kmet: 1
Rome Odunze: 1
Keenan Allen: 1

It was Odunze today, though Allen (10) and Moore (9) out-targeted him. Good luck guessing.

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) November 4, 2024

Moore’s struggles can also be attributed to a significant drop-off in efficiency. Per PFF, he’s seen a steep decrease in receiving grade and yards after catch per reception since last year. The star wide receiver has also seen a severe drop-off in the quality of the targets headed his way. Despite being an excellent deep threat, the majority of his looks have come near the line of scrimmage. His 2024 average depth of target (aDOT) of 9.4 yards is significantly lower than his career average of 11.8, per PFF.

Time is running out for Moore to make a significant impact in fantasy football. His high level of volume — seven targets per game thus far — makes him a weekly start-worthy, but fantasy managers should nevertheless temper expectations moving forward. The veteran receiver should be ranked on the WR2-WR3 border in the coming weeks when making fantasy start sit decisions.

Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)

Managers had long been awaiting the return of Tua Tagovailoa in the hopes he would revitalize Jaylen Waddle’s fantasy value. Tagovailoa has now started two consecutive games for the Dolphins. To the surprise of many, Waddle has made very minimal improvements in his fantasy output. He’s failed to surpass four receptions or 50 receiving yards in both games with Tagovailoa under center.

What’s been most perplexing about Waddle’s 2024 struggles is his lack of volume. In years past, the Dolphins’ passing attack has always been a one-two punch spearheaded by Tyreek Hill and Waddle. The two have historically monopolized a massive portion of the targets in Miami. However, this hasn’t translated to 2024. Waddle is currently being out-targeted by the likes of De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith.

Waddle’s efficiency metrics have been far from encouraging. Among wide receivers with at least 30 targets, he currently ranks 59th in receiving grade, 53rd in yards per route run and 43rd in yards after the catch per reception, per PFF. At this point, it’s fair to question whether Mike McDaniel’s offensive system has shifted toward the other playmakers on this roster.

Nevertheless, I’d still prescribe a bit of patience for Waddle managers. After all, it has only been two games since Tagovailoa has returned from injury. Managers certainly won’t be getting the production they envisioned when they selected Waddle in the third/fourth round of fantasy drafts. At any rate, he is still worth starting as a high-upside WR3 in the weeks to come.

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