As fantasy football draft season closes out, it’s time to focus on what will happen during the 2024 campaign. That also means it’s time for bold fantasy football predictions for every NFL team.

To frame this in a way most helpful for fantasy managers interested in upgrading their bench or making a potential impact trade before Week 1, I approach this from the perspective of “don’t be surprised if X happens.” For example, don’t be surprised if you’re shocked by my bold predictions for Bijan Robinson, Xavier Worthy, Raheem Mostert and 29 other players across the NFL.

(Unless otherwise noted, the metrics detailed below are from either TruMedia/PFF or Pro Football Reference/Stathead).

Don’t be surprised if: Kyler Murray drops to the bottom of the QB1 tier due to vertical pass woes.

Murray does many things well from a fantasy scoring perspective, but he also ranked last in vertical pass PPG in each of the past two seasons. The addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. should help improve that scoring pace, but if Harrison doesn’t live up to expectations for any of a number of reasons, Murray’s other skills may not be enough to land him in a very competitive QB1 tier this season.

Don’t be surprised if: Bijan Robinson leads the league in scrimmage plays.

Robinson has never posted more than 277 scrimmage plays in a college or pro season, but Raheem Morris has repeatedly indicated the Falcons will utilize Robinson as often as possible both on the ground and through the air. That could result in 340+ scrimmage plays and may lead to Robinson topping all running backs in fantasy points.

Don’t be surprised if: Isaiah Likely is a low-end TE1.

The bar for inclusion in the TE1 tier isn’t very high — it only took 90 points in non-PPR leagues to land there in 2023. Likely posted 71 non-PPR points last season and that was before he ended the season with three straight games of 18+ PPR points. Baltimore will incorporate him into the offense more because of this and it may be just enough to earn Likely a TE1 designation.

Don’t be surprised if: Ray Davis leads the club in rushing touchdowns.

Buffalo drafted Davis in part because he was tied for second in the SEC in rushing touchdowns last season. James Cook doesn’t have the frame for goal line carries and the Bills also want to reduce the volume of hits on Josh Allen, which could result in Davis being the goal line back and leading this club in rushing scores.

Don’t be surprised if: Diontae Johnson lands in the WR2 tier.

Johnson is one of only five wide receivers to post three seasons with 140+ targets since 2020. Carolina wants him to take over the workhorse possession wideout role from Adam Thielen, and if it results in another 140+ targets, Johnson has a path to WR2 status.

Don’t be surprised if: Keenan Allen leads the Bears WRs in PPR fantasy points.

DJ Moore is expected to be the top-scoring wideout for Chicago, but don’t sell Allen short just yet. Allen has racked up 140+ targets four times since 2019. He also ranked eighth in vertical PPR PPG last year and was second in short PPR PPG, so he has a similar across-the-field skill set to Moore. Combine that with Allen being the likely slot receiver and that close proximity to the quarterback could lead him to the team lead in WR PPR points.

Don’t be surprised if: Chase Brown gives Zack Moss strong competition for the Bengals RB points lead.

Brown led the Big Ten in rushes of 10+ yards two years ago and had five carries of 10+ yards on only 44 total rushes last year. That is big-play caliber skill that will give Brown plenty of play-calling consideration and may turn this backfield into a platoon that ends with Brown very close to Moss in fantasy points.

Don’t be surprised if: Amari Cooper posts his first WR1-caliber season.

Cooper has been dealing with subpar quarterback play often of late, yet he still finished 13th in vertical PPR PPG in 2022 and moved to fourth in that category in
2023. If Deshaun Watson can stay healthy and give Cooper even more assistance versus a very favorable early-season schedule, it could help Cooper excel at every route depth level, earning him a place in the WR1 tier.

Don’t be surprised if: Rico Dowdle leads the team in rushing.

Last year, Dowdle was 21st out of 56 running backs with 100+ scrimmage plays in PPR points per scrimmage play. That will motivate the Cowboys to give Dowdle some work, and since Ezekiel Elliott has now shifted to being a top-flight, pass-catching back (he was 12th in PPR PPG in Weeks 12-18 last year) and is terrible on the ground (third lowest 10+ yard percentage among RBs with 150+ carries), it could result in Dowdle ending up as the lead rusher on this squad.

Don’t be surprised if: Jaleel McLaughlin leads the Broncos running backs in fantasy points.

Sean Payton has made it clear that the running back work will be an open competition, which is no surprise since Javonte Williams was 28th out of 34 backs (min. 200+ scrimmage plays) in PPR points per play. By contrast, McLaughlin was eighth in PPR points per play among backs with 100+ plays, so he may end up vaulting Williams both on the Broncos depth chart and in fantasy scoring.

Don’t be surprised if: Jameson Williams is a WR2.

Williams will finally get a chance to showcase his skills over a full pro season. Those skills were on display at Alabama in 2021 when he led the nation in touchdowns of 30+ yards, and that could be the case again since Dan Campbell has indicated Williams will be a featured player in this explosive offense. If so, Williams has a WR2 ceiling.

Don’t be surprised if: Christian Watson has a breakout season.

Watson has never been able to stay healthy and he may have figured out why with the help of a University of Wisconsin research team that determined it was likely due to an asymmetry in his leg muscle structure. Watson was one of only three wideouts to post 17+ PPR points in four straight games in the 2022 season, and if he’s solved the durability question, it can result in a WR2 campaign.

Don’t be surprised if: Joe Mixon is a solid RB1.

Mixon is the only player to post five seasons with 270+ scrimmage plays since 2018. That’s what Houston is counting on, and since the Texans possess one of the most talented offenses in the NFL, it’s a volume that can give Mixon — currently No. 16 in ADP for PPR leagues per Fantasy Pros — solid RB1 value.

Don’t be surprised if: The Colts field a top 10 D/ST.

Fantasy managers know schedule strength is a prime driver for D/ST value. That element can turn the Colts into a D/ST1 this year, as Indianapolis has the most favorable schedule in terms of pass coverage, pass blocking and volume of high-scoring offenses. Mark this team down as a strong spot-start candidate throughout the year.

Don’t be surprised if: Trevor Lawrence has a third straight QB1-caliber campaign.

Lawrence is one of only five quarterbacks to land in the QB1 tier in 2022 and 2023. He’s done this via strong passing and solid rushing numbers, as well as notable durability (only one game missed in his NFL career). The Jaguars have top 10-caliber offensive talent, so Lawrence has the ability to greatly outplay his No. 16 ADP.

Don’t be surprised if: Xavier Worthy leads the Chiefs in receiving touchdowns.

Worthy had the fastest 40-yard dash time in the history of the NFL combine. He also scored 26 career receiving touchdowns at Texas, which is third highest in program history. Worthy also posted 13 red zone touchdowns at UT. He offers Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid plenty of ways to get him into the end zone. It could be enough to move Worthy ahead of Travis Kelce on the Chiefs’ receiving touchdown list.

Don’t be surprised if: Brock Bowers is a mid-tier TE1.

Tight ends don’t usually rack up huge numbers in college, but Bowers was second in Georgia history in touchdown receptions, third in catches and fourth in receiving yards. He also tallied 10.2 yards per carry and five rushing touchdowns on 19 carries, so there is jet sweep value here as well. It’s a combination that can lead to mid-tier TE1 value if Bowers stays healthy.

Don’t be surprised if: Justin Herbert returns to QB1 status.

Jim Harbaugh is a run-centric coach, yet his “run the damn ball” Michigan squads were usually near the conference average in pass yards per game. Harbaugh also didn’t let J.J. McCarthy go underutilized last year, and he’s not about to let Herbert’s skills go to waste either. There still won’t be enough volume here to earn strong QB1 status, but a strong per-play total could vault Herbert to a low-tier QB1 ranking.

Don’t be surprised if: Blake Corum ends up with 200+ scrimmage plays.

Kyren Williams is a phenom, yet he’s still only 5-foot-9 and 202 pounds. That’s just not the kind of frame that typically leads to a bell cow workload and is probably why the Rams drafted Corum. That role should give Corum 125-150 scrimmage plays if Williams stays healthy, but since Williams has a track record of foot and ankle injuries over the past two years, it’s possible Corum also gets a start or two and ends up with 200+ scrimmage plays.

Don’t be surprised if: Raheem Mostert outscores De’Von Achane by season’s end.

One of the more surprising stats from the 2023 fantasy season is that Mostert outscored Achane on a PPG basis in standard, half-PPR and PPR scoring last season. This may be why Mostert is listed ahead of Achane on the Dolphins running back depth chart. It also could give Mostert a higher ROI this year at his low-end RB2 ADP than Achane’s low-end RB1 range.

Don’t be surprised if: Justin Jefferson lands in the lower half of the WR1 tier.

Jefferson is one of the toughest first-round quandaries for a fantasy manager due to the Vikings’ subpar quarterback situation. Jefferson overcame a QB carousel last year, ranking second in vertical and stretch vertical PPR PPG, but he still had solid quarterback play for a good portion of the season. There is also an incredible volume of elite wide receivers on this year’s board, so he can still have a very good year and finish in the bottom half of the WR1 tier.

Don’t be surprised if: Antonio Gibson ends up as a RB3.

Gibson was fifth among running backs (min. 100+ plays) in PPR points per play last year, so he has a breakaway ability that is in short supply in New England. Combine that with the potential for a platoon workload with Rhamondre Stevenson and it may result in Gibson generating RB3 value this year.

Don’t be surprised if: Alvin Kamara is a top 10 RB in PPR leagues.

Kamara hasn’t lost much off of his proverbial fastball, as Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams were the only running backs to post a higher PPR PPG mark than Kamara last year. Kamara is also highly durable. He is the only player with 250+ scrimmage plays in each of the past six seasons. If he stays near both of those production levels this year, Kamara will easily outplay his current No. 15 ADP at running back in PPR leagues.

Don’t be surprised if: No New York Giants player scores 200+ PPR points.

It’s tough to find any solid fantasy value on this squad. Daniel Jones may end up splitting time with Drew Lock. Devin Singletary could split carries with Eric Gray or Tyrone Tracy Jr. Malik Nabers may not be able to overcome the ineptitude of this offense. The Giants had only one player post 200+ fantasy points last year, but with Saquon Barkley now in Philadelphia, New York may not field a single player with that point total this year.

Don’t be surprised if: Garrett Wilson falls short of a WR1-caliber season.

Aaron Rodgers is in his age-41 season. Only two quarterbacks have ever thrown 500+ passes in a season at age-41 or older: Tom Brady (who did this five times) and Warren Moon (who did this once, in 1997). Rodgers may add to this list, but he was already showing signs of decline in Green Bay before last year’s injury. If Rodgers doesn’t hold up over a full season, Wilson could easily fall to a WR2 production pace.

Don’t be surprised if: A.J. Brown leads all wide receivers in fantasy points.

Brown is already considered a top-six wideout, but look at the potential impediments for the other five ahead of him on this list. Justin Jefferson has a mediocre quarterback. Ja’Marr Chase may hold out and miss time (and his quarterback is injury prone). CeeDee Lamb could regress now that he’s received his big contract. That leaves Tyreek Hill (whose quarterback also has an injury track record) and Amon-Ra St. Brown. If new OC Kellen Moore features Brown as much as anticipated, and those speed bumps hinder the other elite wideouts, Brown could lead the league in WR fantasy points.

Don’t be surprised if: Pat Freiermuth is a TE1.

Freiermuth ranked sixth among tight ends in plays gaining 10+ and 20+ yards in 2022. Steelers new OC Arthur Smith has put tight ends front and center in his play calling in the past, and since Pittsburgh needs as many big plays as it can get through the air, Freiermuth could end up with a target volume that turns into a TE1-caliber season.

Don’t be surprised if: George Kittle is a top-three tight end.

Kittle may be the best vertical and stretch vertical threat at his position, as he led the league in PPR PPG at both of those depth levels last year. He even had plenty of room to spare on vertical production, as Kittle had a 2+ point lead over second place in every scoring system. Merge a repeat of this with a highly favorable schedule and Kittle should be able to outpace his No. 6 TE ADP.

Don’t be surprised if: Kenneth Walker III falls to mid-tier RB2 status.

The Seahawks may need to manage Walker’s work, as he missed two games last year with an oblique injury and showed up on the injury report in five of the final seven games. Zach Charbonnet was a lead back in college, providing new OC Ryan Grubb a solution. If that happens as expected, Walker will fall short of RB1 production and end up as a mid-tier RB2.

Don’t be surprised if: Bucky Irving ends up as a RB3.

Tony Pollard was the only running back (min. 300+ scrimmage plays) to post a lower points-per-play pace than Rachaad White. That scoring pace is something White can improve upon, but it will likely take some reductions in carries and receptions. Irving would be the beneficiary of this, and it may be enough to earn him RB3 status.

Don’t be surprised if: Tyjae Spears outscores Tony Pollard.

As noted above, Pollard was last in points per play among running backs with 300+ scrimmage plays. Spears was on the opposite side of that, placing fourth in PPR points per play among running backs with 150+ scrimmage plays. Tennessee’s coaching staff will take note of this discrepancy and split the carries, and that can result in Spears being the top-scoring RB on this squad.

Don’t be surprised if: Brian Robinson Jr. is a mid-tier RB2.

Robinson is a superb pass catcher, placing first last year in YPT and YPR among running backs with 30+ receptions. Combine that with big-play scoring ability (Robinson was one of only nine running backs with two or more games with 27+ PPR points last year) and it can result in Robinson tallying RB2 value this season.

(Top photo of Bijan Robinson: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)