This week, the PGA Tour stays out west at TPC Scottsdale for the 2025 WM Phoenix Open. The raucous crowd at the famous 16th hole followed by a memorable finishing stretch of holes has turned into a Super Bowl Sunday staple leading up to the big game.

Being sandwiched between two signature events has made the field slightly weaker than the last few years, but there will still be plenty of big names teeing it up. Some players making the trip to Scottsdale this week include Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Max Homa, Sungjae Im and Sahith Theegala. 

TPC Scottsdale is a par-71 that measures 7,261 yards and features Poa trivialis greens. 

Let’s take a look at several metrics for TPC Scottsdale to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Approach will once again be very important this week.

Last year, Nick Taylor gained 5.2 strokes on approach. In 2023, Scottie Scheffler gained over 10 strokes on approach. When Brooks Koepka won, he was second in the field in strokes-gained approach trailing only Jordan Spieth, who finished fourth. In 2020, Webb Simpson ranked first in the field in the category en route to a playoff victory over Tony Finau.

The greens are relatively flat and pins should be accessible.

Total strokes-gained approach over past 24 Rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.06)
2. Lucas Glover (+1.03)
3. Tom Kim (+1.00)
4. Tom Hoge (+1.00)
5. Tommy Fleetwood (+0.99)

TPC Scottsdale is a course that benefits players who can hit it long and straight with the driver. Being in the fairway and close to the green will give players plenty of scoring opportunities. 

Strokes-gained off the tee on driver-heavy courses over past 36 Rounds:

1. Min Woo Lee (+1.00) 
2. Luke Clanton (+0.81) 
3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.67) 
4. Sam Burns (+0.58) 
5. Byeong Hun An (+0.55) 

Greens tend to get really firm and fast in the Arizona desert. Statistically, the greens at TPC Scottsdale have qualified as “firm” and “fast” in every round but two since 2015.

Strokes-gained putting on fast greens over past 36 rounds:

1. Taylor Montgomery (+1.11) 
2. Max Greyserman (+1.08) 
3. Thomas Detry (+1.00)
4. Hayden Springer (+0.97)
5. Luke Clanton (+0.87)

This statistic will incorporate players who have fared well while playing desert golf in the past.

Strokes-gained total in the desert over past 36 rounds:

1. Justin Thomas (+2.40) 
2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.97) 
3. J.T. Poston (+1.88)
4. Sam Burns (+1.72)
5. Sungjae Im (+1.69)

Statistics from previous years at TPC Scottsdale say greens in regulation at the course are much more indicative of the winner at this tournament than Tour average.

With many bunkers and firm, dry areas around the greens, missing the putting surface can be consequential.

Total green in regulation percentage over past 24 rounds:

1. Taylor Pendrith (77.1%) 
2. J.T. Poston (75.7%)
3. Sepp Straka (75%)
4. Austin Eckroat (74.8%)
5. Nick Taylor (74.5%)

Scrambling percentage on difficult scrambling courses

Scrambling around TPC Scottsdale is tough. The rough around the green is penal and the bunkers are difficult. Players will need to make some tricky up-and-downs in order to be successful this week.

Scrambling percentage on difficult scrambling courses over past 36 rounds:

1. Greyson Sigg (71.2%) 
2. Matt Wallance (70.7%) 
3. Adam Schenk (67.2%)
4. Sungjae Im (66.7%) 
5. Si Woo Kim (66.4%) 

New this year, I am going to generate a “mini model” of the best players at each of the comparable courses. For TPC Scottsdale, I am using TPC Summerlin, Pete Dye Stadium Course, Summit Club, TPC Twin Cities, TPC Sawgrass, Nicklaus Tournament Course, Club de Golf Chapultepec, Concession and Shadow Creek.

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Sam Burns
3. Justin Thomas
4. J.T. Poston
5. Sungjae Im
6. Tom Kim
7. Matt Fitzpatrick
8. Nick Taylor
9. Si Woo Kim
10. Maverick McNealy

Statistical Model

Below, I have reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are strokes-gained approach (22%), strokes-gained off the tee on driver-heavy courses (14%) strokes-gained putting on fast greens (14%), greens-in-regulation percentage (12%), scrambling on difficult scrambling courses (12%), strokes-gained total in the desert (14%) and comparable course rankings (14%).

1. Hideki Matsuyama
2. Maverick McNealy
3. Tom Hoge
4. Sam Burns
5. Nick Taylor
6. Scottie Scheffler
7. Doug Ghim
8. Si Woo Kim
9. Lanto Griffin
10. Matthias Schmid

Last week’s picks results for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:

Justin Thomas (17-1): T48
Patrick Cantlay (22-1): T32
Jason Day (45-1): T13
Denny McCarthy (100-1): T58

Since this market has been up for quite a while, my card begins with a Justin Thomas 25-1 which is no longer available. He was shaky last week, and while I’m happy with the bet I have, I am unsure if there is any value at his current price, which is all the way down to 11-1 in most spots.

Sam Burns +3000 (DraftKings)

Sam Burns is the type of player who can go low and use his driver to pick apart a golf course. Over his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks fifth in strokes-gained off the tee on “driver heavy” courses. He also ranks fourth in strokes-gained total in the desert.

Burns has been getting better and better at TPC Scottsdale. After missing the cut in two of his first three starts at the course, the 28-year-old has finishes of T6 in 2023 and T3 in 2024. 

Last week, Burns had a solid performance at Pebble Beach, finishing T22. However, I feel as though TPC Scottsdale is a much better fit for Burns’s skill set. In addition to the driving prowess, Burns ranks eighth in strokes-gained putting on fast greens. He’s the type of player who will thrive off playing in front of the excitable crowd this week. 

Sam Burns has already won five times on the PGA Tour but it’s now been since May 2022 since the LSU product has won a stroke-play event on Tour. That can change this week with a strong performance at TPC Scottsdale. 

Sahith Theegala +4000 (DraftKings)

Sahith Theegala is a player who thrives on the West Coast and playing in the desert. He ranks ninth in the field in strokes-gained total in the desert and has already won on the PGA Tour out west. 

It’s been a sluggish start to 2025 for the former Nicklaus Award winner, but a trip to what has been one of his favorite courses throughout the early part of his career should get him back on track. In his three trips to TPC Scottsdale, Sahith has finished in the top five in two of them, including a T3 in his debut start in 2022. 

Theegala can get somewhat loose off the tee, which won’t be as debilitating this week as it has been in other events this season. He hits it fairly long and is excellent both around and on the greens, and is the type of player who can make the putts if going low is a requirement. 

This feels like a very fair price for Theegala this week at TPC Scottsdale.

Byeong Hun An +5500 (BetMGM)