What began as a 59-man field at the start of the week has turned into a two-man race at the 2025 Sentry. Hideki Matsuyama and Collin Morikawa have separated themselves from the field and head into the final round well clear clear of a chasing pack spearheaded by Thomas Detry, who sits in third place and will round out the final threesome on Sunday.

Matsuyama enters the final 18 holes at the Plantation Course with a slim one-stroke lead over Morikawa at 27 under after setting a new 54-hole scoring record at the Sentry. Matsuyama’s 27-under score also ties the lowest 54-hole score on the PGA Tour since 1983, which was most recently shot by Nick Dunlap at the 2024 American Express. 

Matsuyama was the one to command the 36-hole lead as the man from Japan grabbed his seventh career lead at the halfway point. His one-stroke edge over Morikawa was erased immediately as the two-time major champion penciled a circle onto his scorecard on the very first hole.

The two continued to trade punches from there. Matsuyama made four straight birdies from holes Nos. 3-6, but it was only enough to keep pace with his playing competitor as Morikawa made a pair of birdies and an eagle on the par-5 5th to maintain a share of the lead.

Wyndham Clark appeared to be the man early on Saturday to turn this two-man party into a three-player shindig. Five birdies on his opening nine put him in position to pounce on the more accessible back nine, but an ill-advised tee shot on the short par-4 14th found the out of bounds and Clark tumbled down the leaderboard.

Runs were made by Sungjae Im and Detry, but neither seriously threatened the leading duo. Instead, the two went about their business and continued to add birdie after birdie and build on their advantage. Matsuyama made his move past Morikawa on No. 14 when his tee shot settled pin high and set up a kick-in birdie, and Morikawa failed to get up-and-down from a greenside bunker for his own.

Three birdies across the final four holes from both players put the finishing touches on matching 11-under 62s — one stroke off the course record at the Plantation Course — and set up a duel on Sunday golf fans have not seen before. Although both players have won at golf courses like Muirfield Village and Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, Matsuyama and Morikawa have never shared a final-round stage quite like this. Tomorrow they will as one of them will likely lay claim to the first signature event of the 2025 PGA Tour season.

The leader

1. Hideki Matsuyama (-27)

Following a season which included wins at Riviera and TPC Southwind as well as an Olympic bronze medal, Matsuyama still came into the new year flying under the radar. That is no longer the case. After failing to take advantage of scoring chances down the closing stretch of his second round, Matsuyama made amends on Saturday.

Of his 11 birdies — which made for a new career high — only three came from outside 10 feet with his longest putt coming from a hair over 12 feet on No. 4. While much has been made of the new putter in his bag — and the three others he has on standby just in case it betrays him — Matsuyama has made his hay in his standard way: by tee-to-greening the Plantation Course into submission.

Other contenders

2. Collin Morikawa (-26)
3. Thomas Detry (-22)
4. Sungjae Im (-21)
5. Harry Hall (-20)
T6. Max Greyserman, Will Zalatoris, Tom Hoge (-19)
T9. Corey Conners, Cam Davis, Adam Scott, Sepp Straka, Cameron Young, Maverick McNealy (-18)

Another round, and another case of Morikawa being inside the top 10 at Kapalua. Of his 23 rounds played on this golf course, the two-time major champion has finished inside the top 10 at the conclusion of 14 of them. While a win has eluded him, Morikawa may be the best version of himself he has ever been.

Once known as an iron specialist, he has since turned into a complete player with a wide array of short-game shots and a reliable putter to lean on. It was that area of the game that was his downfall when he squandered a seven-stroke lead in 2023, and it is that area of the game that may lead him to victory in 2025.

The third 62

Scoring conditions could not have been better on Saturday, and no man was better than Im, who nearly tied the course record at the Plantation Course but instead settled for a 62. Unlike Matsuyama and Morikawa, Im came to the par-5 18th with a chance to tie or break the course record with one last par breaker, but the South Korean was unable to add another circle onto his scorecard.

Im’s scoring rampage on Saturday was a continuation of his love affair with Kapalua. Although he did not win in 2024, Im set the PGA Tour record for most birdies in a 72-hole event (34). Through three rounds of this year’s tournament, Im has notched 23 birdies and an eagle.

2025 Sentry updated odds and picks

• Hideki Matsuyama: 2/3
• Collin Morikawa: 5/4
• Sungjae Im: 40-1
• Thomas Detry: 40-1

It’s a toss-up between two players, so let’s roll with the guy who has done just about everything but win at Kapalua — Morikawa. It came so easy to him on Saturday as he hit all 18 greens in regulation and led the field in strokes gained tee to green. He seems in slightly more control of his game between the two, and at the longer price it makes for the more attractive option.