The weekend of NFL football that some believe to be the NFL’s best has arrived. Divisional round playoff action will take place with two games on Saturday and two games on Sunday between the league’s elite eight, which still presents two days of postseason action with a lower chance of blowouts. 

There’s also a chance some unforeseen things events could  happen, so let’s take a look at five bold predictions for the nail-biting divisional round football ahead. 

Bills become first to miss conference title game as top-two seed three straight seasons 

Did you know there’s never been a team, since NFL playoff seeding began in 1975, to be a top-two seed in three straight seasons and miss the conference championship game in all three of those seasons? That’s according to CBS Sports Research, but the second-seeded Buffalo Bills (2022-2024) will become the first team to achieve this notorious distinction upon losing Sunday night to the third-seeded Baltimore Ravens. 

How has this never happened before you ask? Well, one reason is if a team was a top-two seed, it was probably good enough to win a playoff game or two. Secondly, before the postseason expanded to add a seventh team in 2020, the top-two seeds received a first-round bye in the 12-team format used from 1990-2019. That meant all top-two seeds had to do was win one game to be on the doorstep of appearing in the Super Bowl. 

This is also a bold prediction because of the game’s location in Buffalo. The Bills currently have a streak of 42 consecutive home games as the favorite, which is the sixth-longest by any team in the last 30 years, per CBS Sports Research. It’s rare that the Bills are expected to lose at home. They’re currently a one-point home underdog at the moment of this writing, per Caesar’s Sportsbook, which could change by kickoff on Sunday. 

A Bills loss against the Ravens would also be surprising for a few more reasons. The Bills are 9-0 in Buffalo this season, including the playoffs. Quarterback Josh Allen averages both the highest total yards per game (329.1) and total touchdowns per game (2.6) in NFL playoff history, minimum five games played, per CBS Sports Research. He also possesses the best passing touchdown to interception ratio in NFL playoff history (23-4, 5.8), among those with at least 300 playoff pass attempts. Allen also transformed from being a turnover machine, leading the league with 102 from 2018-2023, to averaging the lowest percent of plays with a sack, fumble or interception (4.17%) by any QB in a season since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, minimum 500 plays.

However, none of that will matter because the Ravens offense has a schematic and personnel advantage the Bills won’t be able to overcome. Baltimore ran over Buffalo, 271-81, in these two teams’ first meeting of the year in Week 4 in a 35-10 Ravens rout. The score might not be as lopsided as last time, but the matchup issue remains. Baltimore’s duo of quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Derrick Henry have the most rushing yards (2,836) and total yards (7,201) by a duo in a season in NFL history, per CBS Sports Research. Now for the scheme advantage. The Ravens utilize at least two tight ends in their formations on the highest rate in the NFL (47.9% of their plays) in 2024, and they use multiple running backs, mainly Henry and 6-foot-3, 300-pound fullback Patrick Ricard, on the third-highest rate of their plays (38.4%) in the league.

That’s a terrible matchup for the Bills, who play their base defense at the lowest rate (4% of their plays) in the league this season. Meaning, Buffalo heavily prefers to use the speed of sub-packages like nickel (five defensive backs on the field) dime (six defensive backs on the field) or quarter (seven or more defensive backs on the field). Buffalo was in its base defense at a much higher rate than normal, 26%, in Week 4, but that didn’t help them a whole lot.

They’ll lose on Sunday to make brand new history despite Allen’s historic playoff production and his efficient 2024 campaign. 

NFL rushing champion Saquon Barkley shredded the Rams for a career-high 255 yards and two rushing touchdowns on 26 carries in a Week 12 road win. In the postseason rematch in Philadelphia, he will go for under 100 yards. How is that possible? Well, 162 of his 255 rushing yards were after contact in the regular season, per NFL Pro. There’s no way Los Angeles can miss enough tackles and take enough bad angles to where it allows that again. 

Yes, Barkley did total 829 rushing yards before contact this season, the most by any player in a season since at least 2017 when the NFL’s Next Gen Stats began tracking this metric. However, a hot Rams defense — see more below — will contain the league’s best running back to under the century mark on Sunday. 

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts‘ streak of five consecutive playoff games without an interception ends 

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has 12 total playoff touchdowns (seven passing, five rushing) to two interceptions in six career playoff starts. He hasn’t thrown a postseason interception since his first career playoff start in the 2021 postseason against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, meaning he has five straight playoff starts of interception-free football. That’s tied for the second-longest streak by a quarterback in the postseason since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger behind only Patrick Mahomes‘ six consecutive such games. 

He’ll throw one on Sunday afternoon against a Rams defense — led by a great, young front of Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Byron Young and Kobie Turner — that has allowed under 10 points in each of its last four games when using their starters. That excludes Week 18 against the Seattle Seahawks when they rested players. 

* Held all four opponents under 10 points (SF, NYJ, ARI, MIN)

Hurts also thrives against man coverage, averaging an NFL-best 9.6 yards per attempt, but that’s not what the Rams do. They run zone coverage on 77.8% of their defensive plays, the third-highest rate in the NFL this season. That’s not an ideal matchup for Hurts, who averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt against zone, 18th in the NFL. Los Angeles will ride its hot streak, which includes sacking Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold an NFL-record nine times in the opening round, to intercept Hurts on Sunday. 

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes commits first divisional round turnover 

Three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes has won 15 of his 18 career playoff games and thrown for 5,135 passing yards, 41 passing touchdowns and only committed nine turnovers (eight interceptions and one lost fumble). He’s also run for 524 yards in the postseason. No player in NFL history has ever had an 18-game regular-season span of 5,000-plus passing yards, 40-plus passing touchdowns, 500-plus rushing yards and fewer than 10 interceptions. 

Mahomes is also readying to play in his best playoff round, the AFC divisional on Saturday against the Houston Texans. He’s 6-0 in his divisional round career with 16 total touchdowns and an immaculate zero turnovers. That 6-0 record is the best record by any quarterback in any playoff round in NFL history. One element of that division success is changing on Saturday: Mahomes will turn the ball over. 

The Texans are coming off a 32-12 win against the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round in which they became the first team since the historic Super Bowl champion 2000 Baltimore Ravens in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants to allow a completion percentage below 45% completion percentage and total at least four sacks and four interceptions. Houston did that against Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who entered the postseason with 23 passing touchdowns to only three interceptions this season. 

Houston’s cornerbacks — Derek Stingley Jr. (42.7% completion percentage allowed this season) and Kamari Lassiter (44.6% completion percentage allowed this season) — are the top two players in the entire NFL in completion percentage allowed this season, among those who have been targeted at least 50 times. Houston third-round rookie safety Calen Bullock stands alone as the NFL rookie leader in takeaways (six), interceptions (five) and passer rating allowed (31.5, minimum 200 snaps). This group is great enough to turn Mahomes over at least once, something he’s never done in the divisional round before. 

Chiefs don’t mess around, defeat Texans by multiple scores

The Chiefs have been a dominant 15-2 this season, a record that gave them their most wins in a season in franchise history. That’s ironic because they tied the 2022 Minnesota Vikings for the most one-score wins (11) in a season in NFL history and a point differential of plus-59, the lowest ever for any NFL team that’s won at least 14 games. 

They’ll be going up against a Houston team that outscored the Los Angeles Chargers in Round 1 32-6 in the final three quarters after trailing 6-0. Kansas City beat the Texans 27-19 back in Week 16, but this time, they’ll defeat Houston by at least two possessions in the divisional round. Why? Rest. There’s always a rest vs. rust conversation every postseason about if a first-round bye is actually a good thing. For a team like the Chiefs, rest is exactly what they need. They are relying on a 35-year-old Travis Kelce, Mahomes — who seemingly suffers an initially scary lower body injury every year (something that happened in Week 15 this season) — and defensive tackle Chris Jones, who is now 30 years old, to lead the way. Rest will have the back-to-back Super Bowl champions feeling refreshed and ready to embarrass a team lesser than them like the Texans.