With only six openings in this year’s NFL head coaching carousel, the industry will breathe a momentary sigh of relief before realizing that we are very likely in for much more turnover next year. This season reminds me a lot of the 2023 cycle in which only five jobs came open. That season was a prelude to what industry sources feared would be a “coachpocalypse” in ’24 (eight jobs turned over). 

Given the prevalence of team-issued statements this year notifying fans that their teams’ head coaches would not be fired—a double-edged sword this time of year, for sure—we could already count a small handful of clubs that would be considered leaning in that direction.

Of course, some of what happens next offseason will be dictated by what happens in 2025. Owners tend to eschew what is historically successful for what is popular at the moment, which creates this constant cycle of hiring and firing—an adolescent-like search for the right shoes, clothes and bookbag. 

What never seems to change is that some of these teams are desirable landing spots for candidates while others are not. Thankfully, we have started to see some coaches in high regard simply ignore openings in places with a deep history of failure or ineptitude. Perhaps at some point, the embarrassment of getting left hanging will force a correction organically in certain places.

Until that happens, we’ll need to continue our yearly tradition of ranking the openings. I’ll do my best to explain, as this is often a major point of sensitivity among fan bases that don’t seem to understand why every candidate wouldn’t want to be their head coach. Sure, there are only 32 of these jobs, but, sometimes not being a head coach is better than setting yourself up to be unceremoniously fired. 

* As of the publication of this column, the Dallas Cowboys have reportedly denied head coach Mike McCarthy’s ability to speak with other teams but have not signed him to an extension. This is very likely an old-time, carnival barker way for Jerry Jones to get some attention for his increasingly irrelevant franchise while he draws up some kind of amenable, short-term extension. Had I needed to put the Cowboys on this list, they would probably have been a begrudging third, with Jones’s antics, unwillingness of late to spend money and overall willingness to force his entire staff to operate on one-year contracts (not to mention the fact that, if all worked out, he would take credit for any modicum of success and jump in front of any camera he saw along the way) representing some of the most significant drawbacks.

Pros: A league-leading $126 million in salary cap space; five picks in the top 105, including the No. 4 pick; a malleable, ascending rookie quarterback with big-league tools and the ability to perform amid brokenness; a traditional, blue-blood franchise with a massive, passionate fan base; a premier media market for coaches who thrive on bright lights; an inherited GM with a strong, respected family lineage in Eliot Wolf. 

Cons: An owner who clearly expects results now after firing Jerod Mayo at the end of Year 1; a dismal roster, including one of the worst and most injury-plagued offensive lines in the NFL and a limited stockpile of top-tier playmakers; a premier media market, which, for coaches without finesse, could be a bit of a hornet’s nest; a franchise that, while seeking to distance itself from the Bill Belichick era, prefers some degree of familiarity which can be difficult for outsiders; a building still staffed for the Belichick era, which means fewer available bodies. 

My take: The New England Patriots top my list in 2024 for the handful of reasons listed above, but primarily because of Drake Maye. It’s good business to hitch your wagon to a rising quarterback star and Maye, to me, exhibited a kind of bulletproof aura during his first season with the Patriots. With by far the worst roster of all the first-year signal-callers, Maye was about even with Bo Nix in terms of EPA per play and well ahead of Caleb Williams (Michael Penix Jr. has a small sample size but closed out the season strong).

I also like the job because, despite some Belichickian inference to the contrary, Robert Kraft has overseen the longest modern dynasty in the NFL. Say what you will about the Kraft family, but sharing a vision with a head coach and quarterback for almost two decades is impossible. Another owner in Kraft’s division can’t seem to manage it for a few weeks (we’ll get to him later). 

While this job involves taking on a general manager, Wolf spent the first 13 years of his career in the Green Bay Packers’ successful personnel incubator. A new head coach will get to immediately come in and ride the wave of popularity having spent money in the offseason and ushered in a new top-five pick. The most direct comparisons will be to that head coach and Mayo, and not the new head coach and Belichick. 

Best fits: Mike Vrabel, Ben Johnson, Brian Flores, Bill O’Brien, Josh McDaniels, Aaron Glenn 

My way-too-early-prediction: Mike Vrabel

This one is painfully obvious, but I cannot ignore the timing of New England’s dismissal of Jerod Mayo and the dead sprint to satisfy the Rooney Rule with the expedited interviews of two coaches who, while great, were both out of the NFL last season. Kraft was not going to let Vrabel go to the Jets. 

Pros: A solid stockpile of cap space with two of your most promising young players, Rome Odunze and Caleb Williams, on the second year of their rookie contracts; a historic franchise that has done the difficult work in churning a disjointed roster; a ready-to-compete team with a relatively low bar for a new incoming coach to be considered a success (i.e., help Williams, a smart and capable quarterback, get rid of the ball on time and understand how to manage a game); the kind of place where success would make you a statue-worthy legend (ignore what happened to Doug Pederson in Philadelphia). 

Cons: An absolutely brutal division and, arguably, the most difficult media market in all of professional football; a roster of players who looked demonstrably frustrated toward the end of last season and a family business that has amassed a large number of decision makers within the building; a quarterback who, while talented, exhibited some odd behavior in games and will cost the next head coach a job à la Trevor Lawrence if he’s not successful; the lingering pressure of a new stadium being built and an expedited timeline to succeed. 

My take: In looking at the Chicago Bears’ roster, it’s not hard to envision a team whose switch flips right away. This is not a gig for a first-time head coach or a play-caller with just a season or two of experience, though. The success of this job is going to directly correlate with a coach’s ability to enter with and maintain a certain gravitas. Winning truly solves all issues. On a granular level, Chicago has out-of-division matchups next year with the New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers—all winnable games on the surface. Chicago also possesses a top-10 pick, two early-second-round picks (one thanks to the Carolina Panthers) and an early-third-round pick. 

Best fits: Mike Vrabel, Brian Flores, Ben Johnson, Matt Campbell, David Shaw, Arthur Smith

My way-too-early-prediction: Ben Johnson

I think Johnson is going to have a lot of options, and the news of the Las Vegas Raiders clearing the decks at general manager is certainly worth noting here. Having an opportunity to coach outside of the NFC North would probably appeal to Johnson, though we know more about Chicago at the QB position than Las Vegas. That was my determining factor, though the Raiders moved up not only my overall rankings following the move at general manager but also on my Ben Johnson radar. 

More: The Ben Johnson Sweepstakes Is About to Begin

Pros: A low-pressure market; a defense with some outstanding edge players and an overall unit that is probably a defensive interior away from being very competitive; a quarterback with a high ceiling; a budding star at wide receiver; a winnable division without any true, consistent threats; an owner with other interests; a great, fast-growing area in a tax-free state that has yet to establish a true franchise identity beyond the very early Tom Coughlin years. After Urban Meyer and the end of the indifferent Doug Pederson era, the bar for someone to come in and impress is quite low. 

Cons: Inheriting a general manager with a streaky track record who clearly has the ear of ownership; a kitchen that can, at times, feel loaded with cooks; a commitment to being a dual-continent franchise, which means multi-week trips across the Atlantic; likely an inability to root out some of the main issues behind the reason that, outside of an AFC championship game run under previous head coach Doug Marrone and previous GM Dave Caldwell, Jacksonville has always been a historically woebegone franchise. 

My take: I would imagine for an offensive play-caller, the conversation begins and ends with a confidence—or lack thereof—in fixing Lawrence. Two coaches and two offensive staffs have now come and gone, and Lawrence has already made it to his second contract, despite just one Pro Bowl–caliber season. Obviously, the ability to carve out a say in personnel and fix the notable gaps in the roster left by Trent Baalke—the team’s personnel director since 2020—is going to be instrumental. This involves a different kind of finesse than the Bears’ job, which is more corporate in nature. 

Best fits: Liam Coen, Todd Monken, Joe Brady, Robert Saleh

My way-too-early-prediction: Liam Coen

Coen’s work with Baker Mayfield gets him the nod in Jacksonville, where he can plug into a promising young Jaguars offense looking for a dynamic play-caller. Coen’s Florida ties will make this a job of mutual interest. 

Pros: An iconic NFL franchise in a relatively new stadium, with new energy emanating from the Tom Brady and Richard Seymour ownership shares; a die-hard fan base seemingly incapable of being turned off by long periods of poor play and an easily conjurable ethos to tap into; a total blank slate at the quarterback position; an offensive line capable of facilitating a rookie or bolstering a veteran QB. With Brady in the ownership circle, there will be a no-excuses mentality toward winning. While I will never celebrate someone’s firing, the Raiders’ dismissal of general manager Tom Telesco also clears the slate for an aligned pairing at coach and G.M. 

Cons: A roster that, where good, is actually very good—but where bad is incredibly deficient and in need of immediate attention. This iteration of the Raiders is the product of a whiplash-inducing swing from the Reggie McKenzie era to the Jon Gruden–Mike Mayock era to a crack at remaking the Patriot Way with Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler. Some of the franchise’s best players were dealt, some of the draft capital squandered and, throughout this time, a quarterback was never settled upon. Having Brady as a boss will be a learning experience and he could be an acquired taste for some candidates based on his level of involvement.

My take: I think for the right kind of coach with some vision, this is the perfect fixer-upper candidate. Is Las Vegas going to make a turnaround like the Denver Broncos just did? Maybe. It’s unlikely we’ll see the Raiders in the playoffs next year no matter who is quarterbacking the team, but I don’t see this roster as too far away from being a seven- or eight-win team in 2025. There are some scrappy UDFAs and late-round picks on this roster that could fold into an expedited rebuild alongside some great players at ultra-premium positions. With five picks in the top 107, and the league’s second-most salary cap space coming into the offseason, there are a few quick avenues to immediate improvement. 

Best fits: Mike Vrabel, Ben Johnson, Todd Monken, Brian Flores 

My way-too-early-prediction: Brian Flores

Flores is not yet on the interview list, and while two of his former quarterbacks have come out and expressed some negative opinions in the press of late, one person who certainly wouldn’t care—and who would appreciate the attitude—is Tom Brady. 

More: Vikings DC Brian Flores Has Crafted a Defense That Fights Back

Pros: A roster loaded with name-recognizable talent in a big market; a top-seven pick and three picks in the top 107; a fan base starving for an iconic, swashbuckling head coach and quick to get behind anything—though equally quick to adapt a learned posture of boisterous pessimism. When the New York Jets are winning, there is an indescribable electricity about the team unlike other markets more accustomed to success. Rex Ryan nearly got there, but being the coach to fix this team would create a Theo Epstein–like aura which is perfect for the dreamer out there. 

Cons: A franchise that can viciously attack itself and step on its own foot, with an embedded narrative of incompetence and ineptitude that has only been shaken in small stretches; a wildly unpredictable owner who has seemed to develop a thirst for a quick trigger finger after being generally considered on the patient side; some of the team’s best young talent is going to quickly become top-of-the-market expensive, which is a difficult proposition without a quarterback. 

My take: After Robert Saleh was fired while a game out of first place for a narrow loss to the eventual 14-win Minnesota Vikings, and Joe Douglas was fired with six weeks remaining on his contract just one year removed from drafting both the offensive and defensive rookies of the year, I thought to myself: No one is ever going to work here again. Of course, as a sport and as a country, we have guessed similarly about these things again and again, and the truth is that the relentlessly hopeful and positive among us are always going to give it a shot. The Jets aren’t just going to get a head coaching candidate, the team is probably going to get a very good head coaching candidate. While the list the team is working with is exhaustively long, the direction is intriguing in that they are talking to a broad array of coaches. The inclusion of both old and young, experienced and inexperienced, should give Woody Johnson and his advisors from Mike Tannenbaum’s football think tank a sizable spectrum. As for the job itself, it’s brutal. Nestled in the middle of a tri-state area with tons of media attention and the unbreakable stigma this team carries, every coach is touted as a miracle worker, yet the team’s only real success came from a brash defensive coordinator from Baltimore who wasn’t given a shot anywhere else and was incapable of being humiliated. 

Best fits: Matt Nagy, Arthur Smith, Aaron Glenn, Joe Brady, Liam Coen

My way-too-early-prediction: Matt Nagy

I think Smith, Nagy and Coen are all in a strong position here, but this is why I would lean Nagy at this juncture, and I stress the earliness of this prediction: I would guess that Mike Tannenbaum, who is helping to run this search, is smart enough to know the value of pairing a head coach and GM together. Having been an NFL GM and head of personnel, Tannenbaum has seen the good and bad of NFL front office assemblage. And, to this point, only Nagy (Chiefs assistant GM Mike Borgonzi) and Coen (Buccaneers assistant GM Mike Greenberg) have complementary interviews (Mike Vrabel and Jon Robinson both interviewed for this job, however, Vrabel seems like a lock elsewhere). Greenberg is a Long Island native, which could go a long way toward sending an olive branch to the team’s beaten down fan base, though Nagy and Borgonzi coming off a potentially strong Chiefs playoff run would help owner Woody Johnson win a press conference. And boy does that guy need to win a press conference. 

Pros: An incredible fan base and unique locale for the right head coach; a division that, year after year, seems to elicit no interest in a runaway winner; a place where moderate success and salesmanship can lead to a long career. 

Cons: Quarterback issues and a salary cap nightmare (the Saints are a projected $66 million over the salary cap for next season) with the ever-looming threat that the team must pay its bills and get whacked for its eagerness to fund a near-two-decade quest for success; the core leaders on this team are rapidly aging out and the insular, family-oriented atmosphere of this ownership group often leads them to chase their own tails. 

My take: I don’t think it’s controversial to say that New Orleans is going to be a good job, but a tough job. I had heard the Saints are looking for someone who can really come in and weather the storm through strength of personality. I remember seeing situations in Atlanta, for example, where a coach had to come in and try to handle the back end of years of cap aggression—and one can argue that Atlanta is still trying to put a complete roster together. However, if the main hope for a coach is to win and continue coaching, the Saints offer—in my opinion—the most difficult avenue to do so right away. I would say that I am not alone in my opinion there. 

Best fits: Joe Brady, Aaron Glenn, David Shaw

My way-too-early-prediction: Aaron Glenn

I heard salesmanship was the most critical factor of this job. For at least another year, the heart and soul of this team will be aging defensive stars. Bringing in the masterful Glenn would be a huge PR win for the Saints, a familiar face and a warm embrace of the team’s current roster. At the moment, it feels like a slam dunk.