This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not quite as strong as they previously were.

In the fifth edition of this blog for the 2025 run for the roses, the focus is on the changing landscape of the 3-year-old male division after the last two weeks of action.

HEATING UP

1. Journalism

A key component in writing this blog each week is weighing how far certain horses jumped up in my estimation versus which ones have the best chance to actually win the Kentucky Derby. I held both Journalism and Sovereignty in high esteem entering last weekend, so perhaps others jumped higher than them, but these are my top two this week because they are the two most likely Kentucky Derby winners. Journalism swept past Kentucky Derby Future Book darling Barnes in the stretch of the $300,000 DK Horse San Felipe Stakes March 1 at Santa Anita Park and defeated him by 1 ¾ lengths under Umberto Rispoli. The key here was the Curlin colt’s finishing ability as he drilled the final three-eighths of a mile in :36.82, the final quarter-mile in :24.68, and the final eighth of a mile in :12.34. He was absolutely flying late and earned a career best 108 Beyer Speed Figure, tied for the best by any 3-year-old this year at any distance. He also recorded a new career-top 110 Equibase Speed Figure for trainer Michael McCarthy while winning his third straight race, all by open lengths. It was a terrific race in his first start in 2 ½ months since winning the Los Alamitos Futurity in December. My only concern is that maybe this was too fast, but the other side of that is maybe Journalism is just that good. If he improves at all between now and Kentucky Derby day, Journalism will win the first jewel of the Triple Crown.

2. Sovereignty

I gave a shout out to BloodHorse’s Byron King in last weekend takeaways for being high on Sovereignty all along – he’s held down the top spot in every one of King’s 2025 Derby Dozen blogs – because the bay colt really delivered in his first start after four months on the bench. Sovereignty rallied from last to first in the $401,650 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes March 1 at Gulfstream Park, surging past River Thames in deep stretch to win by a neck under Junior Alvarado. The victory earned the colt by leading sire Into Mischief a career-best 95 Beyer Speed Figure and essentially matched his best Equibase Speed Figure. He looked like distance would be no problem and finished that way with an eighth of a mile in :12.61 for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. The Fountain of Youth was an impressive race in Sovereignty’s first start since winning the Street Sense Stakes Oct. 27, 2024, on the main track at Churchill Downs. He finished even better that day, closing out the win under the Twin Spires with a final furlong in :12.28 and a final quarter-mile in :24.12. The scary part is the Godolphin homebred should be even better in his next race, and potentially much better given how long he had between starts. He should relish the 1 ¼-mile Derby distance, he has a win on the main track at Churchill Downs, and he’s a maturing 3-year-old in Hall of Fame hands. He’s not as fast as Journalism yet, but make no mistake he is a Kentucky Derby win contender. In fact, right now I would take Journalism and Sovereignty versus the field.

3. Flood Zone

I have a hard time envisioning Flood Zone winning the Kentucky Derby at this point, but there is no doubt he significantly boosted his stock with a 3 ¼-length victory March 1 in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, a one-turn mile race. He entered the Gotham off a maiden win against Florida-breds in a sprint at Gulfstream Park and banked 50 Derby qualifying points by dispatching stakes winner and Gotham favorite Sand Devil at the eighth pole under Reylu Gutierrez. Flood Zone improved his Equibase Speed Figure by 12 points to a 107 and his Beyer Speed Figure by 13 points to a 98. I would have liked to have seen him finish a bit faster in a one-turn mile – his final quarter-mile in :25.92 isn’t blazing – but there is no disputing Flood Zone exceeded expectations in his stakes debut and rewarded his backers to the tune of $37.60 for a $2 win bet. The Frosted colt joined the barn of trainer Brad Cox before the Gotham and proved a welcome addition. “Reylu knew more about the horse than I did,” said Dustin Dugas, assistant to Cox. “He was a recent purchase and Reylu had ridden him the first two times as well. He said he was full of horse today and really happy with him.” Flood Zone has room to improve with only three starts to date, and his tactical speed is an asset. I really liked that he was relaxed enough to go to the lead, allow another horse to take control, and then rally back in the stretch. That shows maturity beyond his experience, and Flood Zone also has some stamina sources in his pedigree that lead me to believe he could excel at longer distances.

Also eligible: I feel bad that Coal Battle was among the also-eligibles in my initial 2025 edition of this blog on Jan. 9 and finds himself here again, because he really did look terrific winning the $1.25 million Rebel Stakes Feb. 23 at Oaklawn Park. He rolled past game pacesetter Madaket Road, who also impressed, in the stretch to win by 1 ¼ lengths. Coal Battle earned a career-best 104 Equibase Speed Figure and 91 Beyer Speed Figure, so while he needs to run faster he is trending in the right direction for trainer Lonnie Briley. … Both Rebel runner-up Madaket Road and Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes second-place finisher River Thames showed a nice combination of speed and fight and warrant close watching coming off career-tops for both in terms of Equibase and Beyer Speed Figures. … California Burrito was a determined front-running winner of the $175,000 John Battaglia Memorial Stakes Feb. 22 at Turfway Park, holding off favorite Baby Max by a half-length and also posting new career-best Equibase and Beyer Speed Figures. He’s also an improving 3-year-old. If the form he has shown on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park transforms to dirt, he’s a legit prospect. … There was a vast group of allowance and maiden winners over the last two weeks that are worth keeping an eye on – too many to mention here – but one America’s Best Racing readers should be keep to keep tabs on is debut winner Valentinian, winner by 3 ¼ lengths of a 1 1/16-mile maiden race March 1 at Tampa Bay Downs. The colt by leading sire Into Mischief was produced by Rachel’s Valentina, the Grade 1-winning daughter of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra.

COOLING DOWN

1. Rodriguez

This Authentic colt found himself in the top half of this blog twice in the first four editions, first as the third heating up selection after his Jan. 4 maiden win – a very fast race – and then as an also-eligible mention in the Feb. 4 edition after what I thought was an encouraging second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. I didn’t love Rodriguez’s race in the DK Horse San Felipe Stakes when he faded late to run a distant third behind Journalism while 9 ½ lengths behind runner-up Barnes. I don’t view this as a disqualifying race by any stretch, it’s just clear that he’s not yet close to the top two. In a race where I expected him to take a significant step forward, Rodriguez took a step backward. This is a quality 3-year-old, but I need to see a much better race in his next start before I consider Rodriguez among the true Kentucky Derby contenders.

2. Tiztastic

I was holding out hope for things to click for Tiztastic after he finished in the top three in the Street Sense, Kentucky Jockey Club, and Southwest Stakes in three straight starts from October to January. Things went the other way in the $1.25 million Rebel Feb. 23 at Oaklawn Park, where he made little impact in the stretch when running fifth, beaten by 6 ½ lengths by Coal Front. A stakes winner on grass and multiple graded stakes-placed on dirt, this Tiz the Law colt has a bright future. I just don’t know if it is on dirt or grass, and I’m less optimistic that he can become a real contender on the Kentucky Derby trail after a disappointing race in the Rebel.

3. Sacrosanct

A three-time stakes winner against New York-breds, Sacrosanct entered the Gotham Stakes unbeaten in four starts, including a win at the Gotham’s one-turn mile distance in the Sleepy Hollow Stakes. Sent off as the 5-2 second betting choice in the Gotham, Sacrosanct raced within a few lengths of the pace early but faded after a half-mile and finished 16 ¼ lengths behind winner Flood Zone. Dustin Dugas, trainer Brad Cox’s New York-based assistant, thought maybe the quality of competition led to Sacrosanct’s first defeat. “He came back good. He was just in kind of a little deep there. Maybe we hit the reset button and go back to New York-bred races.”

Of note: Both Barnes and Burnham Square failed as favorites in the DK Horse San Felipe Stakes and Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes, respectively, but I would encourage their supporters to exercise patience. I thought both of them ran well in defeat March 1. Sure, Barnes lost as the 2-5 favorite and thus his stock took a hit, but he got beat by a terrific racehorse in Journalism who ran a monster race and Barnes earned a new career-best 105 Beyer Speed Figure in defeat. That was his third start and first try around two turns; I still think Barnes is a very real threat to win the Kentucky Derby. Likewise, Burnham Square earned a new career-best 91 Beyer Speed Figure and nearly matched his career-best Equibase Speed Figure in the Fountain of Youth. What I liked best was that he never gave up and kept fighting in the stretch despite a wide trip. He was only beaten by three lengths while fourth as the 1.90-1 favorite. … I didn’t love the decision to take Speed King off the pace in the Rebel Stakes Feb. 23 at Oaklawn Park after he went straight to the front in his three previous races, earning a win in the Southwest Stakes and a second to Coal Battle in the Remington Springboard Mile. I’m drawing a line through his 10^th-place finish in the Rebel. He’s worth another chance, especially if he’s allowed to use his best asset, speed, early in his next race.