Anyone who followed my advice last season knows that my biggest mistake was in doubting Saquon Barkley and the other older backs who changed teams heading into 2024. I did so because I trusted historical data over the player’s talent. One look at the early 2025 projections might suggest I am scared of making the same mistake again with the newly minted Super Bowl champion.

That takeaway ignores one of the first things I would like to tell you about these early projections. There is very little of my own opinion factored in. That will come in the next six months. For now, these projections are more about what have these players and coaches done in the past and what does that tell us about what they may do in the future. The hard decisions about what to do with the Barkley are still to be answered.

In order of concern, I would say the questions are mostly about Barkley’s age, the historical performance of players the year after 2 2,000 yard rushing season, and Barkley’s total touches in 2024. Barkley is now 28 years old, and that has been the start of a decline for many star running backs. Barkley ran for 2,005 yards last year and virtually every back who has ran for 2,000 yards in the past has either gotten hurt or been significantly worse in the following year. The same is true for backs who have come anywhere close to Barkley’s 482 touches from the regular season and the playoffs.

For now, I’m leaving these questions unanswered. He is the number one back in the projections below, and the only back projected for more than 320 Fantasy points. If you’re doing Best Ball drafts, I would rather draft Ja’Marr Chase, Bijan Robinson, and CeeDee Lamb, but Barkley would definitely be a top five pick. 

The most difficult thing to project this far out is volume for the backs that aren’t as good as Barkley. That could be changed by free agency and the NFL Draft. And in situations like the one in Jacksonville, the situation may not get more clear any time soon. Both Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne both have a strong case to be RB1 for the Jaguars and with a new head coach in Liam Coen this could go any direction. I had Dan Schneier on Fantasy Football Today Dynasty and we talked about the Jacksonville Jaguars and more. Check it out:

Here are my way-too-early running back projections: