At VSiN, we’re giving tennis all the attention it deserves in 2025. Like last year, I’ll be previewing some of the biggest tournaments, offering up in-depth analysis and futures for all of the Masters 1000 events and majors. I’ll also be providing you with written daily best bets for all the 500-level events and higher. Gill Alexander will also be dishing out tennis picks on A Numbers Game (or the picks page – linked below), so sign up for a VSiN subscription if you want access to those! All of it begins with the Australian Open.

Below you’ll find my analysis for the men’s draw, along with my Australian Open futures. This is an event that should be very exciting, as we’re not short on storylines. Jannik Sinner, the top-ranked player in the world, is the defending champion, and he’ll be looking for back-to-back titles before he finds out whether or not he’s suspended for doping. Meanwhile, Carlos Alcaraz has never won the Australian Open, but the four-time Grand Slam champ will be hoping to change that. Then there’s 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic, who has won this tournament 10 times in his career. Nobody knows how much the 37-year-old has left in the tank, but he’s heading to Melbourne with the goal of winning major No. 25 — and he’s doing it with coach Andy Murray in his box. So, with all of that out of the way, let’s get into my 2025 Australian Open preview!

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!

Australian Open Men’s Draw Analysis

Click here to see the 2025 Australian Open men’s draw!

Quarter 1: The depth on the ATP Tour is insane right now. An opening-round meeting between Jannik Sinner and Nicolas Jarry does a good job of speaking to that. Jarry has been as high as No. 16 in the world, and it’s not like he’s washed up. The Chilean had a down 2024 season, but he’s unbelievably talented. So, seeing him as the opponent for the top-ranked player in the world definitely caught my attention. Having said that, Sinner should win comfortably. The Italian is also going to feel pretty good about his quarter.

The best player Sinner can face before the quarterfinals is probably Holger Rune. I’m extremely high on the Dane, as I think he has a real shot at bouncing back from last year to make the year-end ATP Finals in 2025. He has every shot in the book and is back to working with Lars Christensen. All of Rune’s biggest accomplishments have come with Christensen in his box, so I’m expecting him to get a lot better when it comes to game planning and showing up to matches with more purpose. However, even if things break right and Rune does make the Round of 16, I don’t see him having the overall game to beat Sinner right now. Christensen can help Rune a bunch, but it takes time to get rid of bad habits.

I also don’t see Sinner running into much trouble with his potential quarter-final opponents either. Barring something wild happening, that group includes Stefanos Tsitsipas, Karen Khachanov, Francisco Cerundolo and Alex de Minaur. I ultimately think it’ll be de Minaur that gets to the final eight. I was hoping to find a way to get some action on that, but the prices just aren’t there. At bet365, I did see -138 for the Australian to make the fourth round, as well as +225 to reach the quarterfinals. However, I’m not sure there’s much value there. While I think he’d beat Tsitsipas in a potential meeting, I’m not sure the odds would be much worse than -138 in that match. So, why sweat out the first few rounds?

Quarter 2: This is the quarter of opportunity. As good as Taylor Fritz was at the US Open, high-level players will feel confident they can beat him if they’re in good form. And Daniil Medvedev is more beatable than ever right now, as his serve has completely abandoned him. Medvedev also lacks the finishing power required to grind out wins against the very best that tennis has to offer. So, if you’re looking to throw some darts on guys to win their quarters, this is where you’ll want to do it. I’m especially interested in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Andrey Rublev and Joao Fonseca. I’ll get into that in the futures section below.

As far as the big picture goes for Quarter 2, we’re probably not looking at anybody that can actually win this tournament. However, there are several blockbuster matchups early in the event, including Mpetshi Perricard vs. Gael Monfils, Ben Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima, Matteo Arnaldi vs. Lorenzo Musetti and Alexei Popyrin vs. Corentin Moutet. That last one will be fascinating to watch. Moutet is a showman on the court, and he’s a Roddy Piper-level heel — but with the physical stature of an Enzo Amore. So, watching him play an Australian could give us an early Match of the Tournament contender.

Quarter 3: I originally liked Novak Djokovic’s chances of contending in Melbourne, but he got a pretty brutal draw. If the Serbian is playing well early in the tournament, he’ll likely breeze through to the Round of 16. However, a third-round meeting with Tomas Machac would be quite the test. And it isn’t crazy to think that Jiri Lehecka or Grigor Dimitrov can knock him out, if they’re healthy and playing well when it’s ultimately time for the match. But what’s especially daunting for Djokovic is that Carlos Alcaraz is the top-seeded player in Quarter 3. And having to go through a hungry Alcaraz before potentially facing Alexander Zverev in the semis and Sinner in the finals sounds impossible.

Of course, Alcaraz does have to get there. His last few hard-court majors haven’t gone as planned. The 21-year-old clearly prefers natural surfaces at this point in his career. But it does help that the Spaniard likely won’t be tested until a potential showdown with Jack Draper in the fourth round. Based strictly on conditioning and big-match experience, I’d like Alcaraz’s chances there.

Realistically, we’re probably going to get our Djokovic vs. Alcaraz quarter-final matchup here, and let’s hope that’s the case. I want as many matches between these two as possible before Djokovic hangs up his boots.

Quarter 4: This is probably the least exciting quarter, as I’m just not sure how many players here can actually beat an in-form Zverev in a best-of-five match. His serve and overall fitness are just too good.

This is, however, a section in which taking some shots could pay off. While I don’t think it’s likely, it’s definitely more possible that an unlikely run happens here than in Quarters 1 or 3. That said, I’d be keeping an eye on Felix Auger-Aliassime and Tommy Paul. Casper Ruud is the top-seeded player in the top half of the quarter, but there’s a real chance he’s eliminated somewhat early. His late-season form left a lot to be desired in 2024, and there are some landmines for him early in this event. Honestly, it wouldn’t completely shock me if Jaume Munar sends him home. And if it’s not Munar, a second-round meeting with Jakub Mensik could spell trouble.

Auger-Aliassime does have a difficult match against Jan-Lennard Struff in the first round, so it’s possible he’ll be sent packing very early. But I do like his big, powerful game in quicker conditions, and he’s due for a big year after a couple of shaky ones. Auger-Aliassime is a big-time talent, and he performs well on big stages. And Paul is no stranger to deep runs at majors, and he even made the semis here in 2023. The American has also looked pretty good early in the 2025 season.

Australian Open Futures

Novak Djokovic To Win Australian Open (+450): This was a pre-draw play for me, so I’m strictly including it for transparency. I no longer like Djokovic’s chances of winning this event, as he got some brutal luck in the draw. I wouldn’t be all that shocked if Djokovic finds a way to beat Alcaraz to earn a spot in the semifinals, but it’s a little hard to imagine him beating the Spaniard, Zverev and Sinner all in a couple of days. And if you disagree with me, you can find much better odds than +450 now. I’m stuck with a bad number.

Andrey Rublev (+900 – 0.5 units ) To Win Quarter 2 & Joao Fonseca To Win Quarter 2 (11-1 – 0.5 units): Given what we saw from Medvedev to end last season, I don’t think he should be the favorite to win the quarter. I actually have Fritz rated as a slightly better player than Medvedev right now. However, I don’t think either of them will win the quarter. I like the winner of the Rublev-Fonseca match to do that. The two of them will meet in the first round, so I’m going to lose one of these plays immediately. But the path for the winner isn’t all that bad. Rublev has obviously never been to the semifinals of a major, but I don’t believe that’s some sort of curse or barrier for him. He’ll eventually break through if he keeps giving himself bites at the apple. From a talent perspective, there isn’t much that separates Rublev from the Tier II guys in this sport. But facing Fonseca is going to be a challenge. I was hoping to stop myself from taking Fonseca on the futures market early in his career, but I really don’t hate the post-Rublev draw for him. Fonseca is a guy that I’ve been backing for quite some time now, and he’s probably the ATP player with the brightest future after Alcaraz and Sinner. But it’s becoming pretty clear that he’s ready to be competitive right now. He has a very dangerous serve, and it’s only getting better. He’s not yet consistently hitting his spots, but that will come. And he has a big, powerful all-court baseline game, with a borderline elite forehand — especially down the line — and good movement skills. When talking strictly about skill and athleticism, he’ll be in good shape against everybody he’d potentially face after Rublev — up until the Round of 16 or quarterfinals, where hedging would then become an option.

Felix Auger-Aliassime To Win Quarter 4 (16-1 – 0.25 units) – There’s a real chance Auger-Aliassime gets bounced in a serving battle with Struff, so don’t be surprised if this one is done super early. However, if the Canadian does make it through that match, it’s entirely possible he’ll make a lengthy run. Nobody will want to face a player with his raw power, especially with him coming into the event in good form. Auger-Aliassime won some matches at the United Cup and he did the same in Adelaide. He’s comfortable Down Under and isn’t coming into this thing completely cold. And he did make the quarterfinals here in 2022. The hope with a play like this is that he just makes the quarterfinals again. From there, depending on the matchup, hedging will be the goal.

Make sure you check out my Australian Open predictions and futures for the women’s side!