In the behavioral economic community, the debate rages: Is there a hot hand? That is, does event X impact event X+1? Will Steph Curry make or miss his last shot, based on the outcome of the previous shot? Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman is credited with dispelling the hot hand phenomenon as a “widespread cognitive illusion,” a figment of imagination. Other researchers push back and make the case that momentum exists and we’d be foolish to ignore it.

At the 2024 U.S. Open, the women’s draw will help add data points. A few players enter on hot streaks. Aryna Sabalenka, a finalist in 2024, is fresh off winning in Cincinnati in dominating fashion. Qinwen Zheng, is your Olympic gold medal winner. Jessica Pegula was the winner in Canada and finalist in Cincy.

Other contenders (or are they?) come in with gears grinding and the check engine light blinking. Iga Świątek will be the top seed but hasn’t won an event since leaving clay. Coco Gauff is the defending champ but her summer has been forgettable. Danielle Collins, playing her final major, played only one hard court match this season and it was a loss in Mexico this week. 

In 16 days we’ll see how much this momentum mattered. Meanwhile, here with our 2024 U.S. Open women’s seeds report:

1. Iga Świątek

After Roland Garros, the question was Can she be beaten? Now it’s, Can she win a non-clay major? Świątek is a sublime player when everything goes her way (and the court is slow) but it’s been a rough summer. Complaints, defeats and a bronze at the Olympics she was expected to win. It would have been unthinkable to write this in June, but Świątek is looking like a vulnerable No.1. Watch out for that potential weekend match vs. Mirra Andreeva.

2. Aryna Sabalenka

It’s been such a strange year for Sabalenka. She defends her Australian Open title with a comprehensive performance. Then, she endures personal tragedy, some ill luck, some injury and fails to win a title for six months. Then, she absolutely dominates in Cincinnati and is the favorite to win the U.S. Open (an event she should have won in 2021 and was a few games from winning in ’23). 

3. Coco Gauff

The defending champion has had a rough go of it lately. One hopes that, to borrow a phrase, she comes in unburdened by what has been. There will be expectations, pressure and points to defend in equal measure. But Gauff is a master at resetting. If she can put herself in Washington 2023 mode (and control her forehand) she gives herself a chance.

4.  Elena Rybakina

In keeping with a theme … she’s a contender but also a player with little momentum. The Wimbledon champion in 2022 has stayed in the game’s upper echelon but is such a mystery. Rybakina hadn’t played since Wimbledon. No Olympics. An illness withdrawal in Canada. And then lost to Leylah Fernandez in Cincinnati. The WTA ace leader can serve herself out of trouble, but does she have the durability to win seven matches in 14 days? 

5. Jasmine Paolini

The sprightly Italian is now going for her third straight major final. Her results have tailed off since Wimbledon, but good for her for this mid-career vault.

6. Jessica Pegula

An admirable talent maximizer was in the throes of a disappointing year and missed Roland Garros. Then, she showed up in Berlin and won the event. She defended her Canada title and reached the finals in Cincy and is suddenly back in the mix. The inevitable mention of the inconvenient truth that she’s never reached a major semifinal, but this year could change that. 

7. Qinwen Zheng

A finalist in Australia and a gold medalist is always dangerous … especially on a zippy surface. She will win a major one day but still might be a year or two early. Still, a player to watch. 

8. Barbora Krejčíková

The winner of the previous major (the second of her career), has stormed back into the conversation. This will mark only her fourth U.S. Open singles appearance, but she has such a complete game. And the knowledge, twice now, that she can win seven matches, must fire her up with confidence. 

9. Maria Sakkari

The cut-and-paste: “A fine, fun, athletic, versatile player. But still—even under a new coach—a raging mystery.” Is she the Gauff-beater who reached the Indian Wells finals? Or the unsure basher who doubts herself in big moments and is only 3–3 at majors this year?

10. Jelena Ostapenko

Lil Wayne’s biggest Latvian fan is always dangerous if not an outright contender. Say what you will, but she dances to her own backbeat. She’s dangerous on any given day and also capable of losing to anyone on any given day. And capable of doing this. It’s been over seven years since her major title, credit to her for remaining a top-15 player.

11. Danielle Collins

Playing the final major of her singular career, Collins is perhaps more dangerous than ever. You just wish there were a little more momentum, the feast of the spring has turned into the famine of summer. The Olympics notwithstanding—a story unto itself—she hasn’t won a match since Wimbledon. Can she pull a Flavia Pennetta mic-drop? One can hope …

12. Daria Kasatkina

Kasatinka is a player thoroughly worthy of your admiration and support. But one who will be lucky to play to her seeding. She’s such a fun player to watch, but her deficit of power is exposed on surfaces other than clay.  

13. Emma Navarro

First, let’s pause to applaud this ascent. From Charlottesville to the WTA’s top 15. The next match she wins at the U.S. Open will be her first, but her progress up the org chart suggests she will play to her seeding at a minimum. 

14. Madison Keys

The former finalist brings so much power to the parts. Physical durability is often a challenge for Keys, but if she’s healthy and hitting, she’s got a puncher’s chance. She faces a dangerous first-rounder in Kateřina Siniaková.

15. Anna Kalinskaya

It’s been quite a summer for the 25-year-old Russian, some tennis-related, some not. Kalinskaya is an admirable player, but her first career title is unlikely to come here. 

16. Liudmila Samsonova

To borrow from Counting Crows, “She’s been hanging around for several years now.” A fine, 12-20 type player, but does Samsonova have a Week 2 major run in her? She’s never been beyond the fourth round at any major. 

17. Ons Jabeur

Sadly, there’s a sense the window is closed for this former finalist. Even at full health, which has seldom been the case this year, it’s always going to be challenging for Jabeur to hit through seven opponents. Zero titles. And a modest 16–14 record this year. 

18. Diana Shnaider

The ascending Russian has gone from college tennis to the top 20 in barely 18 months. Her summer includes a title in Hungary and a takedown of Gauff en route to the Toronto semifinals. Shnaider is a fine doubles player as well. 

19. Marta Kostyuk

 Root for any and all Ukrainian players. 

20. Victoria Azarenka

A finalist in 2012, ’13, and ’20. At 35, Azarenka may be past the prime of her meridian, but always dangerous. 

21. Mirra Andreeva

When people show you who they are, believe them. The best teenager in the world has quickly gone from a curiosity to a threat.

23. Leylah Fernandez

The 2021 finalist comes in playing well. She still gives no quarter and her lefty game still confounds. 

25. Donna Vekić

Her summer includes a run to the Wimbledon semifinals and a silver medal from the Paris Olympics.  

26.  Paula Badosa

The New York native is fresh off her Washington, D.C. title, looking healthy, confident and surge-worthy. 

28. Elina Svitolina

You know the rules. Root for all Ukrainians. (And she is a former U.S. Open semifinalist).

30. Yulia Putintseva

The combative Kazakh’s summer includes wins over both Gauff and Świątek.

Karolína Muchová: We’ll see about her health and fitness. But at this point last year, she was a wonderfully athletic player coming off a major final showing and playing deep into the U.S. Open. Now, she is allegedly ready to “make some mess.”

Bianca Andreescu: All former champions merit mention.

Naomi Osaka: All two-time former champs definitely merit mention. Even if they start against Ostapenko.

Sloane Stephens: Still another former champion. (Down to No. 60)

Emma Raducanu: Still another former champion. (Down to No. 71)

Karolina Plíšková: In the autumn—if not winter—of a fine career. Still, she serves bullets and was a finalist (in 2016).

Amanda Anisimova: She didn’t need a wild card. Anisimova is back in the top 50 and, for all she’s been through, still doesn’t turn 23 until next week. 

Venus Williams: She’s not in the draw. But at some point let’s acknowledge that this two-time champ remains an active player, defying convention start-to-finish.

Ostapenko vs. Osaka: A brutal draw for both.

Paolini vs. Andreescu: The finalist of the last two majors vs. the 2019 winner.

Collins vs. Caroline Dolehide: Friendly fire.

Pegula vs. Shelby Rogers: More friendly fire.

Andreescu vs. Paolini

Andreeva d. Fernandez

Sabalenka d. Gauff

Sabalenka d. Andreeva