For the AFC, the playoff picture is starting to become quite clear. 

On Wednesday, the Kansas City Chiefs handled the Pittsburgh Steelers and clinched the conference’s top seed. With that result along, with the Baltimore Ravens beating the Houston Texans, Baltimore now occupies the third seed, while Pittsburgh has slid to fifth. 

Meanwhile, the NFC could see clarity on Sunday. The Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams and Atlanta Falcons all have opportunities to clinch divisions, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks are attempting to hang onto their slim playoff hopes. 

Let’s look at where everyone stands coming out of Christmas.

Additionally, all playoff probabilities are courtesy of The Athletic’s model.

Record: 15–1, first place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 100%

By beating the Steelers, the Chiefs locked up the AFC’s top seed for the fourth time in Patrick Mahomes’s career. With one postseason win, Kansas City would make its seventh consecutive AFC championship game appearance. 

Record: 12–3, first place, AFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff probability: 100%

Buffalo can clinch the second seed this weekend by beating the New York Jets at home on Sunday. With a victory, the Bills would likely rest their starters in Week 18 against the New England Patriots. 

Record: 11–5, first place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff probability: 100%

After beating the Texans, the Ravens are now in first place in the AFC North with one game remaining. If Baltimore wins at home next weekend against the Cleveland Browns, it will win the division.

Record: 9–7, first place, AFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff probability: 100%

Houston is locked into the fourth seed and can now rest its starters in Week 18, using it as a de facto bye.

Record: 10–6, second place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 100%

Pittsburgh has now lost three consecutive games, sliding the Steelers into the wild-card portion of the AFC playoff picture. To win the division, Pittsburgh must beat the Cincinnati Bengals at Acrisure Stadium next weekend, and hope Baltimore loses at home to Cleveland. 

Record: 9–6, second place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff probability: 94%

With a win Saturday against the New England Patriots, Los Angeles would clinch a playoff spot for the second time in three years. With a victory and a Denver loss, the Chargers would clinch at least the sixth seed.

Record: 9–6, third place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 75%

Denver can clinch a playoff berth by beating the Bengals on Saturday at Paycor Stadium. If the Broncos lose, they’ll still control their own destiny, needing to beat the Chiefs at home in Week 18.

IN THE HUNT

Indianapolis Colts (7–8): To stay alive, the Colts must defeat the New York Giants this weekend and get a loss from Denver.

Miami Dolphins (7–8): Miami is still in play, but the Dolphins must defeat the Browns in Cleveland this weekend and get a loss from Denver.

Cincinnati Bengals (7–8): Cincinnati has a simple task this weekend: beat the Broncos. To make the postseason, the Bengals also need the Broncos to then lose in Week 18, while Miami and Indianapolis lose at least one game.

Record: 13–2, first place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 100%

The Lions can clinch the top seed and NFC North title this weekend, but it will take the Minnesota Vikings losing to the Green Bay Packers, and Detroit beating the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on Monday night.

Record: 12–3, first place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff probability: 100% 

Philadelphia can clinch the NFC East if it beats the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, or if the Washington Commanders lose at home on Sunday night to the Falcons.

Record: 9–6, first place, NFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 86%

Los Angeles can clinch the NFC West with a win at home over the Arizona Cardinals, along with the Seattle Seahawks losing to the Chicago Bears on Thursday night.

Record: 8–7, first place, NFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 51%

The Falcons have a shot to punch their playoff ticket, but it’ll take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers losing to the Carolina Panthers while Atlanta beats Washington on the road to win the NFC South.

Record: 13–2, second place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 100%

Minnesota will host Green Bay, which is coming to the Twin Cities on a short week. If the Vikings win, they will set up a winner-take-all game in Week 18 against the Lions. The winner would be the NFC’s top seed, while the loser would be the fifth seed.

Record: 11–4, third place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 100%

After beating the New Orleans Saints on Monday night, the Packers have clinched a playoff berth. They can’t win the NFC North and are locked into the wild-card round. 

Record: 10–5, second place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 95%

With a victory over the Falcons, Washington will be in the playoffs. The Commanders can also clinch a spot with a loss by the Buccaneers at home to Carolina. 

IN THE HUNT

Seattle Seahawks (8–7): The Seahawks are currently out of the playoffs, but with wins in the final two weeks over the Bears and Rams, Seattle would host at least one playoff game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8–7): The Buccaneers can keep themselves alive in the playoff picture by beating the Panthers. However, with a loss and anything but a tie between the Commanders and Falcons, they’d be eliminated from playoff contention.