There’s not a wrong answer between Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. Target domination, which Nabers showed in spades, is one of the best traits at predicting fantasy success, giving him a slight edge for my top spot. Nabers set the record for targets by a rookie (170) and his 109 grabs are now the rookie record among wide receivers. Nabers also earned the most expected fantasy points of any rookie wideout since 2000. ESPN’s player tracking data gave him a 91 Open Score, the second-best mark of the season. Nabers is always open in a way few other players can claim to be, giving him the makings of a perennial WR1.
The argument for Thomas—and it’s a good one—is that he looked like a top-five receiver over the final two months. From Week 11 onward, Thomas averaged 21.5 fantasy points per game. He upped his target share to 33 percent during this stretch and accounted for nearly half of the Jags’ air yards. Even when looking at the whole year, Thomas was more efficient than Nabers, averaging an extra .28 yards per route run (YPRR) and 2.5 yards per target.
I have Nabers slightly ahead of Thomas Jr., but both players should hang around the 1-2 turn in early fantasy drafts.
McConkey rounds out the A Tier of rookie wideouts. He didn’t top Nabers or Thomas in many of the previously cited metrics. Like Thomas, a strong finish closes the gap between McConkey and his competitors. From Week 11 onward, McConkey earned 29 percent of LA’s targets and earned a look on 26 percent of his routes. At 6’/186, McConkey didn’t have the same physical advantages as BTJ or Nabers. Despite this, he led the class in YPRR versus man coverage (2.96) and versus press coverage (2.31). Both marks were top-10 among all receivers.
McConkey was a phenomenal route-runner at Georgia and showed elite athleticism at the NFL Combine. When you put those two traits on the field and get to catch passes from Justin Herbert, the counting stats naturally go brrr.
In a class of superstar receivers, MHJ was supposed to outshine them all. Instead, the No. 5 overall pick finished behind three receivers and a tight end in receiving yards. His 885 yards were nearly 400 fewer than BTJ, the rookie leader. The blame for Harrison’s struggles doesn’t lie solely with one person. His catchable target rate of 61 percent trailed only Demarcus Robinson among wide receivers with at least 300 routes. Harrison’s 33 percent contested target rate was the third-highest among wide receivers. He finished the year 24th in total routes but sixth in routes with a break 15+ yards downfield. This is to say that he was running a disproportionate amount of slow-developing routes that were better at clearing space than generating targets. Harrison Jr., however, failed to make the most of a bad situation and actively struggled in his role. Out of 65 qualified receivers, he ranked 45th in yards per target on contested looks (5.8) and 56th in catch rate (39 percent). His Catch Score, via ESPN’s player tracking data, was outside the top 100 receivers. Given time, I think Harrison Jr. will adapt to this role. On the other hand, it’s not a job fit for a No. 1 receiver and it won’t get him into the WR1 ranks next year.
Odunze began his career in a crowded receiver room with a struggling rookie as his quarterback, quickly putting any hopes of a breakout campaign to rest. He managed 734 yards and three scores on 54 grabs. Odunze’s role as Chicago’s deep threat led him to a feast-or-famine game log. He was held under 50 yards 13 times and topped 100 yards twice. Only 61 percent of his targets were deemed catchable. As I noted in my re-ranking of the quarterbacks, Caleb Williams was near the bottom of the NFL in accurate throw rate, as charted by PFF. Williams’ shortcomings make it hard to blame Odunze for a quiet debut, but Odunze also came up short in ESPN’s Open Score, ranking 70th in the metric. The impact of Keenan Allen vacuuming up targets was also readily apparent in Rome’s splits.
With Allen likely gone in free agency and Ben Jonhons calling the shots as the head coach, I suspect things will get better in a hurry for Odunze. He looks like a clear buy-low heading into his second season.
Worthy was supposed to save the Chiefs’ deep passing game with his record-setting speed. Instead, he became another cog in the checkdown machine that is Kansas City’s offense. Worthy initially looked like a poor fit for this style. He averaged 27 yards per game at a stunningly low .9 YPRR over the first 10 weeks of the season. Even though the acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown didn’t drastically change the offense, the attention they drew was a game-changer in the second half of the season. After Week 10, Worthy averaged 49 yards per game at 1.63 YPRR. The Chiefs scaled his aDOT back from 11.9 during the first 10 weeks to 7.5 over the remainder of the season, fully integrating him into their quick-passing game. Once healthy, Rashee Rice should still dominate the targets for Kansas City, but Worthy proved to be much more than just a gadget player during the final three months of his rookie season.
McMillan was a disaster early in the year. He peaked at 35 yards through 13 weeks and missed games multiple times with lingering hamstring issues. The down bad Bucs, having lost Chris Godwin for the season and Mike Evans for a month, were then forced to rely on McMillan anyway. Over the final five weeks of the regular season, McMillan averaged 4.8 catches for 63 yards and scored seven times. It’s a small sample, but McMillan looked like an entirely different play in the final month. Godwin has a long road to recovery from his ankle injury and is an impending free agent, creating a path for McMillan to be the team’s long-term WR2.
Pearsall didn’t play much as a rookie. He was shot in the chest before the start of the season and didn’t make his first appearance until Week 7. Pearsall showed some juice in his first three games, totaling 11 grabs for 132 yards and a score. He then fell off the map and was held to one or fewer receptions in each of his next five games. Despite the quiet and tumultuous rookie season, Pearsall sent fantasy managers off on a high note. He torched the Lions with an 8/141/1 line in Week 17, securing a fantasy championship for the one person on the planet who started him.
For as awful as his offseason was, I think you have to chalk up his rookie campaign as a slight win under the circumstances. With Brandon Aiyuk recovering from a torn ACL and Deebo Samuel’s play collapsing in 2024, there’s a chance Pearsall opens 2025 as a starting wide receiver.
Coleman left college as a slow boundary receiver who struggled to separate, and that’s roughly what he was in the NFL. He ranked 84th in Open Score and PFF charted a third of his targets as contested, the second-highest rate in the NFL. He averaged just 5.2 yards per target on contested looks. The FSU alum also struggled with drops, losing five balls at a 14 percent drop rate. Coleman did manage to do some X-receiver stuff well. He averaged 2.3 YPRR versus press coverage and a decent 1.9 YPRR against man coverage. He did this while running nearly 90 percent of his routes from out wide. I’m not sure there’s much ceiling with Coleman, but I could see him refining his game and becoming a Courtland Sutton-level hit down the road.
Mitchell did little as a rookie, catching 23 passes for 312 scoreless yards, but the advanced numbers all seem to like the Texas alum. Fantasy Points’ average separation score showed him as an elite separator versus man and zone coverages.
Mitchell also ranked as a top-10 receiver in ESPN’s Open Score. He was targeted on a quarter of his routes and averaged 1.5 YPRR. There were a few flaws in his profile, however. Mitchell’s per-route numbers are inflated by the fact that he came onto the field for plays designed to get him the ball via first-read targets and then left entirely when he wasn’t being schemed the ball. Had the team made him a mainstay of the three-receiver mix, he wouldn’t have graded out as well in the per-route metrics. Mitchell also led the rookie class with a 15 percent drop rate, including multiple which came on would-be bombs from Anthony Richardson. Alec Pierce improved drastically in 2024, setting up a potential roadblock for Mitchell’s development. I don’t mind floating a buy-low offer for him in dynasty, but I fear we’re still a year away from a true breakout.
Legette entered the league as a project with game-changing upside. He was indeed a project but rarely showed the upside. The No. 33 overall pick peaked at six catches for 66 yards. He averaged a dreadful 5.9 yards per target. The advanced numbers were equally as grim. His mark of 1.2 yards per route run ranked 82nd among wide receivers. He sat at 51st in targets per route run. Legette was a raw route-runner in college and struggled to generate separation in the pros. Per Next Gen Stats, he averaged 2.6 yards of separation—72nd among wide receivers— and ESPN’s Open Score liked him even less, ranking him receiver No. 80. Legette was a non-factor after the catch, averaging 2.3 YAC per reception. Simply put, he did nothing to beat the “Jonathan Mingo 2.0” allegations.
Coker was overshadowed by Legette on draft day—he wasn’t even drafted—and throughout the summer. He didn’t take the field early in the year but was called into action once Adam Thielen got hurt and stayed in the mix with Diontae Johnson eventually being sent to Baltimore. Coker immediately looked like the team’s best receiver sans Thielen. He averaged 1.7 yards per route run, fourth-most among the rookie receivers. Coker appeared in 11 games and went for 478 yards on 32 grabs. His 73.8 PFF receiving grade was sixth in the class. In a world without draft capital, Coker is three or four spots higher on this list. However, his UDFA status will force him to prove his worth many times over. Coker will open 2025 as the Panthers’ No. 3 receiver at best.
Vele was an unheralded prospect who cracked the Broncos’ roster with a lights-out training camp. He got injured early in the season and didn’t play his second game until Week 6 when he broke out with four catches for 78 yards. Vele topped 60 yards three times and finished the year with 475 yards and three scores. Vele was platooned with Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims throughout the year and the latter bested him in most metrics. He will probably top out as a No. 3 receiver, but that’s a great find in the last round of the draft.
Whittington didn’t play much as a rookie, but his advanced numbers were good enough for me to include him on this list because of the pending Cooper Kupp trade. The rookie averaged 2.5 YPRR and earned a first down on 12 percent of his reps. Whittington played primarily on the outside and averaged over two YPRR versus press coverage. PFF even graded him as a top-30 run-blocker at wide receiver. Sean McVay, who almost always puts three receivers on the field, even schemed up some unique looks for Whittington.
With Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell hitting free agency, Whittington could leverage his sneaky rookie season into a larger role in year two.
Franklin didn’t see the field much early in the year but picked up a part-time role as the season went on. He only topped 50 yards once but did so in the final contest of the year. He also scored his third touchdown in Denver’s playoff loss. Franklin caught multiple passes four times in his first eight games. He did so in all but one of his final eight. He made progress as a rookie, but that largely meant he earned a rotational gig and wasn’t overly productive in that role. I liked Franklin as a prospect, but his fall to the fourth round of the draft and a quiet rookie season are major red flags.
After Franklin, I don’t see much dynasty value coming from the class. Here’s how I have some of the remaining members of the class ranked with some accompanying notes.
16. Malik Washington, Dolphins
17. Ja’Lynn Polk, Patriots
18. Jermaine Burton, Bengals
19. Malachi Corley, Jets
20. Luke McCaffrey, Commanders
21. Roman Wilson, Steelers
Washington ran plenty of routes as the Dolphins’ third receiver but did next to nothing with them. He totaled 223 receiving yards at .86 YPRR. Washington showed far more juice as a utility player. He scored one rushing touchdown and returned both kicks and punts. That’s likely his primary role in the NFL, though he could see more work if Tyreek Hill becomes more trouble than he’s worth in Miami.
Polk struggled with drops, penalties, poor routes, and contested catch situations. His mark of .32 yards per route run is the lowest for a rookie with at least 250 routes since 2010. The list of players who have escaped that bad of a season to find success later in their careers is roughly: Nelson Agholor, Zay Jones. On a list that bleak, I’d be cutting bait with Polk for pennies on the dollar.
Burton was projected by the beat reporters early in the offseason to spend most of his rookie campaign on the sidelines learning the ropes. While they got the sidelines portion of that right, Burton didn’t appear to do much learning. He was a healthy scratch multiple times including after missing Saturday’s walkthrough when the team was counting on him to step up in place of an injured Tee Higgins. Duke Tobin candidly said Burton has “done nothing” to earn his roster spot in 2025.
Burton headlines a dreadful third round for wide receivers. The first pick of the third round, Malachi Corley, caught three passes and was a healthy scratch or did not take the field for the Jets during nearly half of his rookie season. Steelers wideout Roman Wilson only played on offense or special teams in one game. Luke McCaffrey played far more than Wilson or Corley but barely out-produced them. Even with the Commanders desperate for a No. 2 receiver to step up, McCaffrey caught just 18 passes and averaged a dreadful .6 yards per route run. His last catch came in Week 16 despite the Commanders making it to the NFC Championship game.
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