Photo:

The Jockey Club U.K. TV

Seven of the 13 expected runners in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Mile are foreign shippers. With an international field lined up, the Mile has an opportunity to be one of the weekend’s best betting races.

American-based runners Carl Spackler and Johannes have won 13 out of their last 15 races combined, and yet they likely will be left to fight for minor awards in this race that should be dominated by Europeans.

Gina Romantica, Henry Longfellow, Mountain Bear and River Tiber have been removed from consideration for this race, opening the door for every pre-entered also-eligible to run. 

I rank all 13 expected runners from first to last in Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Mile.

1. Ramatuelle. Off all the European replays I have watched leading up to the Breeders’ Cup, this filly’s performance in the Prix de la Forêt (G1) was the most impressive. She showed an explosive turn of foot that blew away a good field of older males, whom she will be tasked with facing once more. The freshening she had before that race appears to have helped her return to the stellar form she showed as a 2-year-old. All four of her wins have come by three lengths or more as she is a handful when she is on her game. Trainer Christopher Head knows a thing or two about winning this race as his father Freddy Head trained legendary Goldikova to three wins in this race.  

2. Notable Speech. Charlie Appleby has won this race three years in a row, and he brings another top class contender to the Mile this year. This dual Group 1 winner likely did not care for the soft turf last time out and should return to his strong Sussex Stakes (G1) form in here. A repeat of that effort will make him tough to beat.

3. Diego Velázquez. Aidan O’Brien pre-entered four horses in this race but has elected to only run this son of Frankel, which could be interpreted as a positive sign. He has not shown the same class as the top two picks, but he is in great current form and owns three wins from three tries over left-handed configurations, which should not be overlooked.

4. Carl Spackler. Chad Brown’s colt is 6-for-7 at the mile distance and enters this race in the best form of his career. He has the tactical speed to get the jump on his European rivals and will try to hold them off late. It is worth noting that the final time of his win in the Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland was slower than the females ran in the First Lady on the same card. That is just about to only hole to pick in his consistent form. 

5. Porta Fortuna. She never has run out of the money in 11 lifetime starts and brings a three-race winning streak into the Breeders’ Cup. She has shown she can handle left-handed turns and almost won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last year. Like Carl Spackler it is hard to find fault with her form, but I like a few others better as this will be the 3-year-old filly’s first start against males. 

6. More Than Looks. If you like Carl Spackler, then this colt deserves serious consideration as well. He has lost twice to Carl Spackler this year, but he did not have a smooth trip either time and was much closer last time in his second start off the bench. He looks prime to put forth a strong effort in his third start this year. 

7. Johannes. The local colt is better than the typical California entrant in a Breeders’ Cup turf race, owning a perfect record in four starts at the distance. He should he able to sit a cozy trip, but it is fair to question the quality of horses whom he has been facing. This will be his toughest test to date by far. 

8. Chili Flag. This mare will tackles the boys for the first time in her career and has turned into quite a good miler after trying longer distances for much of last year. She will be charging late from the back of the pack, but it is hard to imagine her overtaking the Europeans in the lane.

9. Geoglyph. The Japan import enters this off of the best race he has run this year, but he has not won since April 2022 and seems a notch below some of the best horses that Japan is sending to California for the Breeders’ Cup. 

10. Win for the Money. Mark Casse’s gelding left his previous form behind when pulling off the upset in the Woodbine Mile (G1) last out. It is hard to see him repeating that effort, and even if he does, it would only place him about mid-pack in this spot. 

11. Ten Happy Rose. The second Japan entrant in this field earned a major stakes win over a left-handed track this year. That is the good news. The bad news is she was 207-1 in that race, which is a sign that the effort she put forth that day was a fluke. 

12. Goliad. This speedy colt will try to take this field all the way and will guarantee a honest pace. He has really taken to Kentucky Downs’ unique track, but is only 1-for-7 at Del Mar and never has captured more than a Grade 3.

13. Raqiya. This daughter of Blue Point has yet to win beyond seven furlongs. In addition to distance questions, she must prove she is at this class level as it took a disqualification for her to gain her first career Group 3 win last time out.