Photo:

Sue Kawczynski / Eclipse Sportswire

The Dirt Mile will conclude next Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup program, and it has an opportunity to be the most chaotic of race of the weekend. There is an abundance of speed signed on and the defection of likely favorite National Treasure further opens the door in this wide-open affair.

Nineteen horses were pre-entered, but in addition to National Treasure, Bob Baffert has said he is also unlikely to run Fort Bragg. Derma Sotogake and Señor Buscador are likely headed to the Breeders’ Cup Classic and Dr. Venkman appears set for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. These defections from the field are significant because they should allow every also-eligible to draw in to the race.

Two of these also-eligibles, Pipeline and T O Saint Denis, are need-the-lead types that will add to an already hot pace. Saudi Crown and Full Serrano have shown they can set sub-45-second fractions for the first half. Seize the Grey was pressing a sub-45 half in the Pat Day Mile and he is at his best when on the lead. Tumbarumba, Muth, Mufasa and Skippylongstocking are all pressers who will not be too far off the lead.

Keeping in mind this anticipated nuclear pace, I rank the contenders for the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile from first to last below.

1. Post Time. As one of the only pure closers in this field, no one would benefit more from a pace meltdown than this son of Frosted. The model of consistency has never been out of the money in 13 lifetime starts. Though he may be stabled at Laurel Park, he proved this summer he could compete at the highest level with a second-place finish in the Met Mile (G1) and a third-place effort in the Whitney Stakes (G1). A two-turn mile looks like the absolute perfect fit for this colt who looks primed to pull off a minor upset. 

2. Domestic Product. Unlike Post Time, this colt has not shown he is as good around two-turns. He improved dramatically in his last two starts when dominating the Dwyer Stakes (G3) and defeating a solid field in the H. Allen Jerkens Stakes (G1). While both wins came around one-turn, the improvement could also be due to the cutback in distance and continued development as a 3-year-old. If he can handle the configuration, then Chad Brown’s colt should be right there. His strong recent form puts him squarely in the mix and he will be flying from the back of the pack.

3. Mufasa. This horse has a bit of upside and enters the Breeders’ Cup in an improving pattern. His trainer, Ignacio Correas, has a knack for steadily improving South American imports such as; Blue Prize and Didia. He has won a consecutive pair of sprint races in his last two starts in America, but previously proved he can handle a route of ground in his native Chile. The son of Practical Joke does not need the lead and should sit a nice trip in here. Do not be surprised if he outruns his odds.

4. Saudi Crown. He brings the best credentials to this field and under the right circumstances, he would be tough to beat as he appears to have the most raw ability in this group. The front-runner will be up against it on Saturday however, and he has shown in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic and the 2024 Godolphin Mile that when things do not go his way he can fold. He may win the battle of the early speed, but eventually lose the war to the closers in the lane. 

5. Cagliostro. One can be forgiving of his effort on a sloppy track last out. Prior to that, his form since adding blinkers as a 4-year-old was very strong. He has yet to win a graded stakes race, but has knocked heads with some good company and should relish a two-turn mile. This colt has an adaptable style, which should lead to a nice trip. 

6. Skippylongstocking. He ran a solid third in this race last year. This runner may appreciate shortening up to a mile after a series of longer races, but he has been able to sit cozy trips on or near slower paces in these longer races, which is a luxury he will not have in this spot.

7. Seize the Gray. This neat colt is a dual Grade 1 winner who can be handful on his best day. His wins in the Preakness Stakes and Pennsylvania Derby put him squarely in the mix, but he also has thrown in his share of clunkers along the way. A two-turn mile is a nice fit for him, but he must prove he can be just as effective when he does not make the early lead.

8. Muth. The 3-year-old’s first test against older foes in the California Crown (G1) was a disaster. With such little form to go off of since March, it is hard to trust him after that race. If he can return to his Arkansas Derby (G1) form then he may be able to get a piece, but even that effort would put him a step behind his elders. 

9. Tumbarumba. Brain Lynch’s gelding has never been worse than third in 12 starts over a dry dirt surface and he is a hard knocker at the Grade 3 level. His consistency should be respected, but he may find the waters a bit too deep in here.

10. Full Serano. He has already run two good races over this track, which gives him a home court advantage, but he will not have a pace advantage. I would give him a chance if I had confidence that he could rate, but to this point he has not shown the ability to do so in America. 

11. Katonah. This gelding has run well at a mile and this distance should not be a problem. What may be a problem however, is this level of competition. His last win came at Pleasanton and his good comeback effort in the San Diego (G2) is starting to look like a fluke. 

12. Three Technique. Every now and then this old pro runs a big race like he did last out in the Ack Ack (G3), but more often than not he is fighting for a smaller piece. It is hard to imagine him repeating his win last out over a sloppy track over this fast track. 

13. Pipeline. Know him early, but this horse has stopped time and time again when pressed on the lead against good competition. He may opt to run in the Cigar Mile in December instead, which would be a better spot for him.

14. T O Saint Denis. The Japanese import outran his odds after opening up a big lead in the Alysheba Stakes (G2), but he will not be able to put distance between this field early. He has finished 13th in three straight races in Japan and should fade quickly on Saturday.