I am nervous about writing the column this week. It seems like every time I write about some breakout WR who was a steal at ADP and is shaping up to be a league winner, he is lost to injury. It is an awful trend and one I would like to avoid for the rest of the season.

Cooper Kupp. Rashee Rice. And now, Nico Collins.

The loss of Collins, the current WR2 overall, is yet another massive blow for fantasy managers to deal with in the year of attrition.

How Houston overcomes losing a player averaging 21.3 PPR PPG will be a massive fantasy storyline to monitor. Stefon Diggs should see all the targets he can handle. Tank Dell has a chance for a big turnaround with a 20%-plus weekly target share. Sleeper options such as second-year WR Xavier Hutchinson could come into play.

The contingent upside for the Houston Texans’ skill position players is one of many situations to keep an eye on this week.

Here are 13 more that fantasy managers need to monitor.

1. Kirk Cousins and Atlanta’s offensive breakout

Cousins was masterful in Atlanta’s primetime win over Tampa Bay. He passed for 509 yards — a franchise record, and the 15th most in NFL history — and added 4 TD passes. No QB had passed the 500-yard mark since Joe Burrow in late 2021.

Kirk Cousins completed 42 of 58 passes for 509 yards, 4 TDs and an INT, with all 509 yards coming from passes within the pocket, the most in a game in the NGS era (since 2016).

Cousins Passing Between Numbers: 27/33, 385 yards, 3 TD (+25.1 EPA)#TBvsATL | @AtlantaFalcons pic.twitter.com/FjJ9TCKvJl

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 4, 2024

The passing volume was outstanding and elevated multiple pass catchers to massive fantasy outputs. Drake London and Darnell Mooney each went over 30 fantasy points , finishing the week as the WR2 and WR3 overall, respectively. They combined for 29 targets. Kyle Pitts also set season highs in catches and yards and finished as the TE5 overall on the week.

Atlanta’s offensive outburst was everything we were promised this offseason with Zac Robinson’s hire as OC — we are so far removed from the stone ages (aka the Arthur Smith Era).

The Falcons have a chance to build on their Week 5 win this Sunday against a Carolina team that has allowed 30 points or more in three games this season.

2. Brian Thomas Jr.: Alpha WR ascension

I wrote about Thomas’ breakout last week, but he continues to hit new heights. The Jaguars finally won a game, with Thomas setting a new season high with 23.2 PPR points. This is Thomas’ second consecutive game with 20+ points scored. He is currently the WR9 overall. Much like during his 2023 season at LSU, Malik Nabers has slightly overshadowed BTJ’s incredible start.

Thomas Jr. has joined Nabers in some truly elite company.

Rookie WR Fantasy Points Per Game Leaders
[2010-2024, min. 4 games]

1. Odell Beckham – 24.6
2. MALIK NABERS – 22.9
3. Ja’Marr Chase – 17.9
4. Puka Nacua – 17.6
5. Justin Jefferson – 17.1
6. Michael Thomas – 17.1
7. Mike Evans – 16.3
8. BRIAN THOMAS JR. – 16.2
9. Julio Jones -…

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) October 7, 2024

Highest yards per route run average for rookie wide receivers in Weeks 1-5 since at least 2000 (min. 100 routes):

1. Greg Jennings (3..28)
2. Ja’Marr Chase (2.98)
3. Brian Thomas Jr. (2.78) !!!
4. Justin Jefferson (2.77)
5. Puka Nacua (2.74)

— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) October 7, 2024

Thomas Jr. just turned 22 this week. He is in a perfect storm fantasy-wise: Jacksonville is allowing 28.6 PPG — the third-most in the NFL. His usage and team game scripts are lining up perfectly for BTJ to have a strong rest of the season, possibly challenging for a WR1 finish.

3. Bengals’ target consolidation masterpiece

Did the Bengals coaching staff read my article last week mentioning Ja’Marr Chase’s low early-season target totals? We’ll never truly know.

But whether or not an article at The Athletic influenced NFL play-calling, Chase put up his best game of the season in fantasy. He finished with 41.3 points, his highest fantasy output since Week 5 of 2023, when he scored 52.2. (Note to self: MUST use Chase in DFS during Week 5 of next season.)

Chase wasn’t the only Bengals receiver to finish with a high-scoring fantasy week. Tee Higgins exploded for 29.3 points.

Since Higgins’ return, the Bengals offense has been trending upward and consolidating. Higgins and Chase have combined for 48.1% of the Bengals’ targets and 60.8% of their receiving yardage (per FantasyPoints Data).

Burrow, Chase and Higgins have a symbiotic relationship when it comes to team scoring and fantasy production. When all three are on the field, great things seem to happen.

Ja’Marr’s last 5 games when Tee plays:
34 catches, 537 yards, 5 TDs

His last 5 w/o Tee:
20 catches, 209 yards, 1 TD

The #Bengals are averaging 32 points and 410 yards in the last 5 games when Burrow, Tee and Ja’Marr start and finish.

On poison picking:https://t.co/uDlapzRxt8

— Jay Morrison (@ByJayMorrison) October 9, 2024

4. The Year 2 TE surprise

Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid entered the 2024 season with about as much collective enthusiasm as we have ever seen for a pair of second-year TEs. LaPorta finished last season as the TE1 overall, and Kincaid had a clear pathway to becoming Buffalo’s No. 1 target in the passing game. Both of these players steamed up in ADP, with LaPorta often going off the board as the first TE selected and Kincaid not far behind.

It’s not surprising that a second-year TE is currently the TE3 overall, but it’s not LaPorta or Kincaid challenging for the top spot at the position.

The number one TE scorer out of the 2023 NFL Draft Class this season is Tucker Kraft.

TE1 overall in Week 4
TE1 overall in Week 5

Continues to flash.

pic.twitter.com/7ooi25U0yv

— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) October 7, 2024

Tucker Kraft has finished as the TE1 overall in consecutive weeks. He has played in three games alongside Jordan Love. In those games, Kraft has averaged 16.3 PPG — No. 1 at the TE position in that stretch. Every season we have at least one TE fantasy breakout player. This year, Kraft appears to be one of them.

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Why Packers believe Tucker Kraft can be the ‘best tight end in the game’

5. Post-bye week usage watch

CeeDee Lamb is the poster child for teams self-scouting and coming out of a bye week with a new game plan — often a fantasy-friendly one for a particular player or two.

2023 CeeDee Lamb Stats

• Weeks 1-6 14.9 PPG, WR13 Overall
• Weeks 8-18 28.5 PPG, WR1 Overall

Lamb’s WR1 overall season is an extreme example, but there are several players to keep an eye on this week who could be in store for a big rest of the season.

A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith returning to elite usage is almost expected. Rookie Ladd McConkey could see an elevated role in the Chargers’ weekly game plan and further establish himself as the team’s top option in the passing game. LaPorta has a chance to turn things around after a rough start.

But the storyline to watch could be with LaPorta’s teammate…

6. Jahmyr Gibbs: Passing game usage

The Lions’ fantasy RB production has been stellar. Gibbs is currently the RB7 in points per game at the position, only slightly edging out the RB8 overall, David Montgomery. Gibbs managers may hardly have noticed, but he has seen a lack of usage as a pass catcher. He finished eighth overall at the position last season with 71 targets. So far in 2024, Gibbs has only been targeted 13 times — tied for 24th. Even more confusing has been his lack of routes run.

Jahmyr Gibbs has gone 2 straight games without a target.

Route rates by week:

56%
55%
46%
32%

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) October 8, 2024

Gibbs was not drafted to be a between-the-tackles grinder. On the contrary. He was drafted to be a dynamic two-way threat at the position. He had the most receptions by an Alabama running back in a single season during the Nick Saban era.

Even with all the mouths to feed in Detroit, it is hard to imagine the Lions coaching staff not doing some self-scouting during the bye week. Expect one of the league’s best two-way threats to soon be fully utilized, possibly this week in a shootout environment against Dallas.

7. 39 miles on I-95 

The Baltimore Ravens square off against the 4-1 Washington Commanders this week. Less than 40 miles separate the two franchises’ stadiums, but there has been a massive chasm in terms of on-field success. Since 2000, the Ravens have won 17 playoff games, while the Commanders have won just one.

Since Lamar Jackson took over as the full-time starter in 2019, he has won two MVPs. Meanwhile, Washington has had 12 QBs start at least one game during that same span.

These franchises may both play in the same state, but they might as well have been worlds apart.

Jayden Daniels’ arrival has changed everything. The Commanders now have their own star franchise QB.

Daniels joins Jackson as the top fantasy scorers at the QB position.

QB fantasy leaders Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels battle this week in Baltimore. pic.twitter.com/63DNmtKjRC

— Rotoworld Football (@rotoworld_fb) October 10, 2024

NFL fans and fantasy football managers alike could be in for a treat with this one. The Commanders and Ravens have been the most potent offenses in football with scoring averages of 31 and 29.4 PPGs, respectively.

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8. Wan’Dale Robinson: Year 3 breakout

Robinson continued his strong start to the season with a TD catch in New York’s win over Seattle. The 2022 second-round draft pick has been enjoying a breakout season. The Giants have consistently utilized him week in, week out.

He is fourth overall in the NFL with 47 targets.

Wan’Dale Robinson maintained his high target share in Week 5, hitting the 29% mark. He now has a 28.1% target share on the season. That’s a top-10 number at the position.

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 7, 2024

Robinson is WR21 on the season. He could be in store for another high target share Sunday against Cincinnati with Malik Nabers set to miss another game as he works through concussion protocol.

9. The Drake Maye Era begins in New England

The Patriots have issues galore on offense, including an offensive line allowing the second-most sacks in football. Last week they held the Miami Dolphins to 15 points … and lost. Not exactly the ideal situation for a young QB to thrive in.

New England tried to be patient, but its patience has run out. Drake Maye will make the first start of his career in Week 6.

There is a great deal of hope with the Patriots fan base, and also some slight optimism from fantasy managers. Maye rushed for over 1,200 yards during his UNC career, and even led the Tar Heels in rushing yardage in 2022. Expect him to be utilized as a runner in New England as well.

Drake Maye’s 14% career designed rush rate and 11% scramble rate ranked second behind Jayden Daniels.

He is going to run once he takes the starting job.

pic.twitter.com/rvadbii2rE

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) August 16, 2024

Patriots fans are desperate for a sign of life. They averaged 13.9 PPG last season (tied for last) and are even worse this year (12.4).

10. So, about that Jonathon Brooks takeover…

Chuba Hubbard’s red-hot fantasy scoring streak continued in Week 5. Hubbard barely missed his third 100-yard rushing performance in a row, finishing with 97.

His level of play and production have risen considerably since Andy Dalton took over at QB.

The narrative has quickly shifted from “Hubbard is a placeholder until Jonathon Brooks returns,” to “let’s get Hubbard more touches.”

Stat No. 2

Since Andy Dalton took over in Week 3, Chuba Hubbard is the fantasy RB3 and is averaging 21.7 touches for 128 yards and 1.0 touchdown per game.

— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) October 9, 2024

Hubbard is averaging 16.1 PPG and is currently the RB12. The last Carolina Panthers RB to finish as an RB1? Christian McCaffrey.

11. A Tank Bigsby takeover?

Bigsby finished as the RB1 overall in Jacksonville’s Week 5 win over Indianapolis. He rushed 13 times for 101 yards and 2 TDs, and added a 28-yard reception. This was the third time that Bigsby has led Jacksonville in rushing yards this season. Dating to last year, Bigsby has three out of the four highest rushing totals over Jacksonville’s past 14 games played. He has a 17.6% explosive run rate (rushes over 15 yards), leading all RBs (min. 20 attempts — per Fantasy Points Data).

Jacksonville won its first game of the year and scored its most points of the season. This coincided with Bigsby’s expanded role.

Tank Bigsby out-snapped Travis Etienne for the first time in his career today.

Bigsby in Week 5:

– 41% snap rate
– 13-101-2 rushing
– 60% snap rate and both rush attempts from inside of the 10-yard line

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 6, 2024

Bigsby is a real threat to Travis Etienne’s weekly workload, and if this keeps up, to the hierarchy at the position in Jacksonville. The numbers show just how much more effective Bigsby has been.

Tank Bigsby this season:
* 1st in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt
* 3rd in PFF grades
* 50.0% Success Rate
* 1st in Yards Per Carry

Travis Etienne this season:
* 18th in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt
* 55th in PFF grades
* 56.6% Success Rate
* 27th in Yards Per… pic.twitter.com/EhijcgYYEL

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 7, 2024

This week’s matchup against Chicago looks promising for another impactful fantasy performance.

12. So, did you draft that fantasy stud Brandon Aubrey?

Aubrey is helping teams win fantasy games on a weekly basis. He is averaging 14 PPG, nearly four points higher than his average in 2023 (when he finished as the No. 1 scorer at the position).

Brandon Aubrey has made a field goal from 50-plus yards in seven consecutive games, an NFL record. The previous record was five, held by Dustin Hopkins (9/18/23 – 10/22/23) and Justin Tucker (12/27/15 – 9/25/16).

— Dallas Cowboys Public Relations (@DallasCowboysPR) October 7, 2024

If it seemed to you like kicker scoring overall was up, you would be correct. There are 11 kickers averaging 10 or more PPG. Only Aubrey accomplished that feat last season.

A lot of the kicker scoring success can be attributed to long field goals. Per The Wall Street Journal — “They’re Better, Longer and More Valuable Than Ever. The NFL’s Newest Superstars Are Kickers.”  — 29% of all field goal attempts this season are from 50+ yards, and 76% of those went through the uprights.

13. Turn back the clocks in KC

Kansas City is having to change things up offensively seemingly every week. In Monday night’s win over New Orleans, the Chiefs were led by JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kareem Hunt. Smith-Schuster rejoined the team after a brief stint in New England, signing a $1.2 million deal in August that was an afterthought for most.

Hunt finally returned to the franchise that drafted him. He signed with the team less than three weeks ago.

So naturally, the two combined for 38.7 points on MNF.

JuJu Smith-Schuster’s 130 receiving yards are his most in a game since the 2020-2021 season Wild Card round with the Steelers.

That was 1,366 days ago.

Kareem Hunt’s 102 rushing yards are his most in a game since a 2020 season game with the Browns.

That was 1,422 days ago.

— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) October 8, 2024

The 5-0 Chiefs are off this week on a bye.

GO DEEPER

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(Top photo of Chuba Hubbard: Daniel Bartel — Imagn Images)