13 insights fantasy football managers need to know ahead of Week 4

Posted by September 28, 2024 Football
13 insights fantasy football managers need to know ahead of Week 4

Fantasy football can sometimes be highly unpredictable. If you have played this game long enough, you know to expect the unexpected and roll with the punches. But even in my wildest imagination, I never expected to read about players making September trips … to Germany.

Christian McCaffrey’s rough start took an uncomfortable twist earlier this week as he crossed the pond to see a specialist. Speculation ensued about what sort of treatments CMC would receive. There are now unconfirmed reports that he could miss multiple months. Any way you cut it, the situation is just terrible for McCaffrey managers.

But many Jordan Mason managers are probably actively encouraging CMC to take it easy well past Oktoberfest. Much like the NFL, in fantasy football, when one door closes, another opens. One manager’s loss is someone else’s gain.

1. Juaun Jennings’ huge day

Deebo Samuel and George Kittle were out. So naturally, Brandon Aiyuk would step up and fill the void with increased target volume, right? Wrong. It was not the WR who San Francisco just gave a $120 million contact to who smashed. It was Juaun Jennings.

After scoring two TDs combined over the past two seasons, Jennings exploded with one of the wildest WR1 overall weeks in recent memory.

Jennings’ big performance provided plenty of motivation for fantasy managers to hit the waiver wire every week moving forward. With all the injuries this season, opportunities will open up on a weekly basis. Having a bit of a DFS mentality may be needed to win this season more so than in previous ones.

2. Another low-scoring start to Week 3

Two Thursdays ago opened up Week 3 with a 24-3 clunker as the Jets steamrolled the Patriots. Fantasy managers who grabbed Hunter Henry off the waiver wire were left holding the bag.

Sunday was not much better. There were a few bright spots, including the Rams’ 27-24 upset win over San Francisco and Baltimore’s 28-25 win over Dallas (which included 19 fourth-quarter points from the Cowboys), but overall, scoring continued to trend down.

Monday night’s doubleheader was certainly a fun way to end the week, and provided more than a few bailout performances for fantasy managers in need of a comeback win. And maybe, just maybe, it offered a glimmer of hope for Week 4 — the Cowboys’ 20-15 win at the Giants on Thursday night not withstanding.

3. Josh Allen’s ADP discount could feed families

Allen — and the quarterback market — saw a steep decline in ADP this preseason as drafters pushed quarterbacks further and further down. In 2023, Allen was part of a quarterback group, including Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes, that drafters continually bet on as early as the second and early third rounds. This season, Allen and Hurts fell all the way to Round 5 as drafters devalued early quarterbacks and the position as a whole.

While waiting on QB can have its advantages (see No. 3 below), letting Allen fall was probably a bridge too far. Allen was superhuman in Buffalo’s beatdown of the Jaguars in Week 3.

The Bills lead the NFL in scoring with 37.7 PPG. Allen is the QB1 (time is a flat circle), and RB James Cook is the RB6. Allen has thrown TD passes to seven players already. Receiver Khalil Shakir is off to a solid start — while certainly not in the Stefon Diggs class of No. 1 target wideouts, he has done his part. Shakir is averaging 14.3 PPG — 17th highest among all WRs — and an impressive 2.95 yards per route run  (per Fantasy Points Data).

4. Jayden Daniels: The Chosen One at QB

How effusive can my praise be for Daniels? He passed his opening prime-time test with flying colors, finishing with 293 combined yards and three TDs in the Commanders’ 38-33 upset win at Cincinnati on Monday night in Week 3. Washington continued to be generous to opposing passing games, as Joe Burrow finished with three TDs — two of which went to Ja’Marr Chase, who added 118 receiving yards.

The Bengals trailed at halftime but cut it to 31-26 early in the fourth quarter. Daniels proceeded to lead Washington on a 12-play, 70-yard drive, capped off by a teardrop 27-yard dime to Terry McLaurin for a TD.

Daniels is currently the QB2, right behind Allen. He is on pace to finish with the most fantasy points ever scored by a rookie QB. But what is simply remarkable is his efficiency. Not only is he leading the NFL in completion percentage, but also he is doing things that we have never seen at the QB position, even from truly elite signal callers.

We still have not seen what a full-on Daniels spike week actually looks like. As his comfort level in the offense grows, we could see a passing performance like Week 3 combined with a rushing performance like Week 1 (88 yards, two TDs). He can give Allen a run for his money at the QB position.

Allen and Daniels were sensational, but the talk at the QB position after Week 3 also centered around a 36-year-old fresh off the pine…

5. Andy Dalton: 2024 Joe Flacco?

Dalton took over for Bryce Young just two games into the season. Panthers head coach Dave Canales’ bold decision to bench the 2023 No. 1 overall pick in favor of Dalton was a hot topic across both the NFL and fantasy football circles throughout the week. After Sunday’s performance, it’s easy to see why the switch was made.

Dalton became the only quarterback this season to finish with 300 passing yards and three TDs (all in the first half) in the same game.

From a fantasy perspective, Dalton’s strong play helped propel multiple Panthers to big games as the team secured the road victory, its first win of the season. Diontae Johnson was targeted 13 times, catching eight of them, and he finished with a career-high 122 yards and a TD. He had a 35.8% target share and a 59.1% air yards share in his first game with Dalton. Johnson now looks like a locked-in high-end WR2, after being benchable with Young under center.

Chuba Hubbard was also impressive. He finished with 169 combined yards and a TD on 26 touches. His 27.9 fantasy points were the most in his career.

Last season, we saw a vintage performance from 38-year-old Joe Flacco. Could Dalton follow in his footsteps? That may be wishful thinking, but this is undoubtedly the most optimism we’ve seen from the Carolina offense in several seasons.

In Canales we trust — start your Panthers.

6. Another rookie WR breakout

The Bears offense has struggled mightily this season, and Caleb Williams’ career has gotten off to a rocky start. But there is some recent promise with their other top 10 overall pick. If last week’s usage is any indication, Rome Odunze could quickly join Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. as locked-in impact rookie WR fantasy starters — he probably has already.

Odunze was always a bet-on-talent pick at ADP, but there were some concerns he would be boxed out due to target competition. Keenan Allen missed Week 3 with a heel injury, but Odunze’s big week feels like much more than just a contingent fill-in opportunity. He had six catches on 11 targets and finished with 112 yards and a TD.

The Bears have scored three offensive touchdowns in three games. Making the talented rookie a significant part of their weekly game plan is not only pragmatic, but also necessary if Chicago is going to turn things around.

7. The NFL leader in passing TDs is Sam Darnold

Darnold’s magical start to the season continued in Week 3. He is the only QB who has passed for multiple TDs in every game. Minnesota steamrolled a strong Texans team 34-7. Darnold picked the Houston defense apart with four TD passes. He leads the NFL with eight on the season. Simply a remarkable early outcome for a player viewed as a placeholder for rookie J.J. McCarthy.

The Vikings have started the season 3-0 with Darnold emerging as a darkhorse MVP candidate. There are whispers that Darnold’s strong play could cause a difficult decision next offseason for Minnesota with McCarthy waiting in the wings. The Vikings have a big showdown on Sunday against Green Bay.

Minnesota has not started 4-0 since 2016 but, as crazy as it sounds, suddenly anything seems possible with Darnold behind center.

8. Saquon Barkley … league winner?

Barkley’s incredible start to the season continued. The Eagles won on the road against the undefeated Saints, with their new bell-cow RB leading the way.

Barkley scored two fourth-quarter TDs, including the go-ahead score with a minute remaining. Earlier in the quarter, Philadelphia was being shut out completely before Barkley ripped off a 65-yard score.

Prior to this season, Barkley had scored two rushing TDs in a game only three times in his career. He has now two such games over the first three games of the season.

9. The early-TE malaise continues

So, about the edge that drafting a TE early gave you in your fantasy draft this season…

A quick check-in: Mark Andrews is the TE30 and is unplayable. Travis Kelce is TE21 and looks completely checked out. Dalton Kincaid finally caught a TD and eeks in as TE12. Evan Engram and David Njoku are injured.

Sam LaPorta, the TE1 overall of most analysts, is only TE16 on the year and he’s now banged up with an ankle injury. TE7 overall Trey McBride, whose usage is giving drafters hope that he can emerge as a potential TE1 overall, is now in the concussion protocol.

Dallas Goedert, fresh off of a massive spike week against New Orleans, sits atop the position.

TD scoring is also down — way down.

We have a wide-open chase for the TE1 overall crown for 2024.

10. Rashee Rice season continues

Rice is a locked-in high end WR1 moving forward. In Kansas City’s first game without Isiah Pacheco in Week 3, Rice posted career highs of 14 targets and 12 catches while finishing with 110 yards and a TD.

Everything is shaping up for Rice to go nuclear over the course of the rest of the season. It has been a perfect storm of opportunity: Kelce’s decline combined with Hollywood Brown’s injury and recent lack of clarity at the RB position. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will be leaning on Rice early and often. If you have him on your fantasy team, sit back and enjoy the ride.

11. So, about that Commanders secondary…

Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. connected on another TD in Week 3. A much bigger performance is on tap for Week 4

It’s a probable MHJ smash game. Get your popcorn.

12. So, about that Mike McDaniels offense we aggressively drafted….

In his first start of the season, Skylar Thompson fell flat on his face and the Seattle Seahawks rolled to a 24-3 win in Week 3.

Fantasy managers should contemplate benching players like Jaylen Waddle this week as the Dolphins search for answers at QB. Miami is averaging 11 PPG through three games played. This number is a truly remarkable early decline for a team that averaged 27.9 in 2023.

13. Ben Johnson’s RB productivity streak

Lions OC Ben Johnson continues to churn out RB production from multiple backs year after year. In 2023, Jamaal Williams finished as RB13 with D’Andre Swift joining him inside the RB2 line at RB21. In 2024, it was even better, with Jahmyr Gibbs finishing as the RB10 and David Montgomery joining him as RB17.

So far, this season looks even more promising.

Could Johnson and the Lions break down a fantasy football glass ceiling and have two players finish in the RB1 class? Montgomery is the current RB9 and Gibbs is near-even to him at RB13.

It is nice to know that there are certain offenses and positions we can consistently bet on for fantasy productivity. Next year, make a note to target RBs under Ben Johnson’s guidance. It can help you win in fantasy. Or just pick up Jauan Jennings from the waiver wire — that works too.

(Top photo of Jayden Daniels: Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

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