13 insights fantasy football managers need to know ahead of 2025

Posted by December 28, 2024 Football
13 insights fantasy football managers need to know ahead of 2025

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Getting ready for a long fantasy football offseason and the chance to step away from the game for a few months? Of course you’re not.

The end of the regular season marks the beginning of months of buildup, news, draft planning, and reacting to the unexpected — all in anticipation of the next fantasy season. For some, fantasy football is a seasonal activity, running from the end of August until the holiday season. But for many of us, it’s a year-round obsession — a circle of life where ADP movements are studied and analyzed as closely as a hedge-funder tracks the S&P 500. No stone is left unturned as new players enter the league and veterans find themselves in new roles with new teams.

And, really, who can afford to take time off when we’re only 76 days away from the start of NFL free agency and just 119 days from the 2025 NFL Draft?

Here are few things fantasy managers should keep an eye on heading into 2025.

1. Tetairoa McMillan watch: The league’s next alpha WR1

Rookie wide receiver scoring used to be a cheat code for drafters — a potential edge for the bold manager who zigged while others zagged and was willing to take the risk on a player new to the league. Boy, how times have changed. Drafters have fully embraced rookie wide receivers and have gone from hoping for big scoring numbers to expecting them.

This past preseason, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers were both drafted, on average, more highly than any other rookie wideout in history. Harrison Jr. was a major disappointment, but Nabers joined Brian Thomas Jr. as instant rookie WR1s. A rookie has finished inside the top 10 scorers at WR in four of the past five season, with Nabers and BTJ following up breakout Year 1 performances from players like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Puka Nacua.

Ladd McConkey also returned value at ADP, and Xavier Worthy had his highs and lows but is up to 9 TDs in his rookie campaign and returned value during the fantasy playoffs. Next season, look for drafters to aggressively embrace rookie wideouts once again. There are several players who could land well in the NFL draft and gain ADP value, but the best bet to be the first wideout off the board (full-time wideout, that is — more on that later) is Tet McMillan.

McMillan has classic alpha WR size at around 6-foot-5 (a measurement to confirm at the combine) and 212 pounds. He caught 26 TD passes and set the Arizona record in receiving yardage with 3,416. The NFL comparisons have ranged from A.J. Green to Mike Evans to a twitchier Drake London (I particularly like that one). And if you want your WRs to have cool nicknames, he checks off that box too as the most famous T-Mac in sports since Tracy McGrady. Expect to hear McMillan’s name called early in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft.

There is another pass catcher who fantasy managers have their eye on, too. He happens to be the draft’s top cornerback as well…

2. Travis Hunter is an exceptional talent, but at what position?

Baseball has Shohei Ohtani. The NFL will soon have Travis Hunter, who became the first player to win the Heisman Trophy while playing on both sides of the ball since Charles Woodson in 1997. Unlike Woodson, Hunter not only played offense but also put up gaudy statistics. He led the Big 12 in receptions (92 ) and touchdown catches (14), outproducing McMillan.

Hunter is a lock to be one of the first few picks in the draft and is in the mix for the No. 1 overall pick. He has drawn comparisons to players like Patrick Surtain and Champ Bailey for his cornerback skills, with Garrett Wilson-like abilities as a pass catcher. He has a highlight reel littered with jaw-dropping plays and sequences.

Coaches are already commenting on their interest in an impact two-way player. Spoiler alert: they want him.

But unless you play IDP, let’s hope he focuses on playing wide receiver. This game of ours is too important for us to worry about our pass-catching weapons having to waste valuable snaps on defense of all things.

Everything Hunter-related is already a daily news story — expect the drumbeats to get louder and louder over the next few months.

3. Ashton Jeanty: The Chosen One at the running back position

Jeanty is one of the most hyped running back prospects to enter the league in the past decade. You may have read about his journey here, and if you haven’t, the article is well worth your time. This time of year, you often hear about various prospects’ impressive college production, but Jeanty takes this to another level. He led Boise State to a 12-1 record and the No. 3 seed in the College Football Playoff, posting insane numbers along the way — 2,497 rushing yards and 29 TDs (!!!).

Jeanty had a decent season-opening performance.

The Broncos’ lone loss was a 37-34 thriller at Oregon — Jeanty was not half bad in that one, either.

Jeanty became Boise State’s first unanimous first team All American and just missed becoming the first Heisman trophy winner in school history after a close loss to Hunter. He was not asked to catch passes this season, but finished with 39 in 2023. Jeanty checks all the boxes. He even made Bruce Feldman’s annual freaks list (#54). Jeanty should have no issue with the physical pounding in the NFL. Cold weather games should not be a problem either.

He should have similar draft capital to Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs — respectively, the No. 8 and No. 12 overall picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. In a class devoid of stars, expect Jeanty to be highly in demand. Dane Brugler lists him as one of the highest-rated prospects in the 2025 draft class. Multiple teams in the first round will aggressively pursue Jeanty, and numerous landing spots would propel him into the first round in 2025 redraft leagues. It was the year of the running back in 2024 fantasy football, with multiple backs putting up strong numbers. Expect Jeanty to quickly cement himself as a player who many “cannot leave their drafts without” in 2025.

But he is not the only rookie running back for drafters to be excited about.

4. Multiple first-round running backs on the way?

Jeanty is a lock to go in the first round, but he may not be alone among RBs. The 2025 running back class is loaded. Last season, Jonathon Brooks was the first back selected — mid-second round, No. 46 overall. He ended up being the only back chosen in the first two rounds. This year, expect that to change.

Drake Maye’s former teammate in the UNC backfield should soon join him on Sundays. And, like Maye, he could be the next Tar Heel to be selected in the first round. Omarion Hampton combines ideal size (6-foot, 220 pounds) and athleticism (4.47 40). He ran a 10.7 100-meter dash. Hampton set a school record with 2,033 total yards and led the ACC with 1,660 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns.

Kaleb Johnson is this year’s biggest NFL draft riser at running back. He exploded for 1,537 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns — a Hawkeyes record. He joins Hampton in early discussions for the No. 2 running back in this class behind Jeanty. Johnson has size, home run-hitting explosiveness, and the ability to earn tough yardage. Like Jeanty and Hampton, he has a three-down back profile. Sorry to use technical language, but this “grown ass man” touchdown against Nebraska says more about Johnson than I could in 10 paragraphs.

But there’s more! Ohio State’s Quinshon Judkins has been on the NFL radar since he broke out as a freshman at Ole Miss. He rushed for 10 TDs in his only season as a Buckeye. Expect to hear his name called early in Round 2.

Judkins shared the backfield in his lone season in Columbus with TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson has seemingly been in college forever, at one point playing alongside C.J. Stroud, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and other current NFL players. While multiple backs will be selected ahead of him, he reminded everyone of his talent in Ohio State’s blowout win over Tennessee. He should also hear his name called on Day 2.

There are many more names to monitor, but expect to learn more about them in the upcoming weeks and months.

But there are more storylines to monitor that could shape fantasy football this offseason than just the 2025 rookies. How about a few Year 2 players?

5. Brock Bowers 2025 ADP watch… and the rise of the rookie TE

If you’ve been reading this column all year, it has documented the rise and impact of Brock Bowers — not just for this season, but for fantasy seasons to come. Long gone are the days of auto-fading rookie tight ends. Barring a couple more George Kittle smash games to end the year, a rookie tight end will lead fantasy football in scoring at the position. And with all due respect to Sam LaPorta’s 2023 campaign, Bowers’ season has been far more impactful.

He has shown that a rookie tight end can not only put up big numbers — even in one of the league’s worst offenses — but can also command a massive target share. His numbers are comparable to the best rookie wide receivers in football.

In Week 17, Bowers is set to pass Puka Nacua for the most receptions by a rookie and Mike Ditka for the most receiving yards by a rookie tight end.

So, we know Bowers’ rookie year was special, but will he vault into the first round of 2025 redraft leagues? A 21-year-old with 101 catches and 1,000+ yards has to be in the conversation. In tight end premium formats like the FFPC, he’s a lock to be selected there. In traditional PPR leagues like the NFFC, it will be close. If he gets a significant quarterback upgrade, his ADP rise could be rapid.

It’s wild to consider we’re already discussing the positional statistical edge a second-year tight end could provide next season. And it seems like a conversation we’ll be having about Bowers for years to come.

What rookie tight ends are we drafting this coming season?

Putting Bowers-like expectations on any rookie tight end is setting yourself up for major disappointment. However, Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland should be in the mix for top-12 TE ADP status if they land in favorable situations.

Warren won the Mackey Award and put up gaudy stats along the way. He holds the Penn State tight end record for receptions with 92 (and counting). Unlike Bowers and LaPorta, he has traditional tight end size — at 6-foot-6, 265 pounds, think Rob Gronkowski. Like Bowers, he also excelled as a runner, finishing with nearly 200 rushing yards and 4 TDs on 24 carries. In Penn State’s 33-30 win over USC, Warren set single-game NCAA records with 17 catches and 224 receiving yards.

Loveland will compete with Warren to be the first tight end off the board. He led Michigan in all receiving categories and was a bright spot in a down year for the Wolverines’ offense. At 6-foot-5, 245 pounds, he is a versatile player with excellent athleticism and route-running ability. A few highlights are enough to confirm he’s NFL-ready.

Loveland’s journey from Idaho to Ann Arbor — and soon to NFL Sundays — is well worth exploring.

There’s even speculation a certain coach with Michigan ties, currently in the AFC West, could target Loveland in the NFL draft. If Loveland is attached to Justin Herbert, he could have a Bowers-like impact.

Okay, maybe I’m getting ahead of myself, but I won’t be the only one. The NFL is a copycat league, and fantasy managers are always looking for history to repeat itself. One thing is for sure: instant-impact rookie tight ends will be sought after for years to come.

6. Brian Thomas Jr.: He’s special

Every year, we see a summertime ADP riser. This coming summer, that player will be Brian Thomas Jr. Are you looking forward to drafting BTJ next season? You probably won’t get him unless you’re willing to spend a very high draft pick.

It seems like every single week, more and more fantasy managers are realizing just how special a rookie season he’s having.

His dynasty value has already exploded.

His recent stretch of play has elevated him into the discussion for the fantasy football 2025 first round. He seems like the kind of high-upside pick drafters selecting at the 1-2 turn tend to gravitate towards.

Thomas is one of only six rookie wide receivers in the past 25 years to post a 9-TD, 1,000-yard season. He has also thrived despite multiple quarterbacks behind center in a Jacksonville offense averaging just 18.7 PPG — sixth-worst in the league. If the Jaguars can simply reach a middle-of-the-pack level on offense, BTJ could be truly special in his second season. Expect to hear about him all offseason long.

7. A potential Garrett Wilson trade?

It wouldn’t be an NFL offseason without trade rumors involving a wide receiver with significant potential fantasy football ramifications. Massive deals have gone down in recent years — A.J. Brown to Philadelphia, Tyreek Hill to Miami, DJ Moore to Chicago… This offseason? It could be a visibly frustrated Garrett Wilson.

Wilson has been one of the league’s top target earners since his debut season in 2023. He ranks fourth with 141 targets this season, after finishing with 168 last year. Wilson is currently the WR8  — the first potential top-12 WR finish of his career. However, he has taken a significant backseat in the wide receiver pecking order since New York reunited Aaron Rodgers with his long-time former WR1, Davante Adams.

The Jets are at a crossroads. They need a new head coach, and the outlook for the 41-year-old Rodgers and 32-year-old Adams in 2025 remains uncertain. Still, the possibility of both returning to New York is very much on the table.

Wilson would attract many suitors, with multiple teams likely willing to part with a first-round pick to acquire his services. He also holds the advantage of playing in the final year of his rookie contract, offering any potential trade partner the opportunity to sign him to a long-term extension.

As with all things Jets-related, expect a circus. For Wilson, escaping New York might provide needed long-term stability. However, a trade would likely further enrage an already frustrated Jets fan base.

8. Sam Darnold… or J.J. McCarthy?

The Vikings are one of the league’s feel-good storylines of the year. Expected to take a backseat to Detroit and Green Bay in a transition year, Minnesota is in the thick of things with a 13-2 record. They have overcome the loss of long-time signal caller Kirk Cousins to Atlanta this past offseason and the preseason injury to first-round draft pick J.J. McCarthy, who missed the entire year with a torn meniscus.

Journeyman Sam Darnold has stepped up in a major way, playing the best ball of his career, including 32 touchdown passes —fifth in the NFL. The 27-year-old has resurrected his career. As the top available QB, he will enter free agency immediately on the radar of many teams (Cleveland? Tennessee? The New York Giants?).

Despite Darnold’s success, most expect Minnesota to move on, embracing the future with McCarthy, who offers the added bonus of a rookie contract. Minnesota even signed Giants castoff Daniel Jones midseason, seemingly as McCarthy’s insurance in case he is slow in his recovery. But with every Vikings win and every Darnold TD pass, there are more and more voices whispering that maybe the foregone conclusion that he is a one-year wonder in Minnesota is a misnomer.

Would a run to the Super Bowl or even an NFC title game appearance ( the Vikings have not been since 2018) change the long-term plan? If Minnesota does bring back Darnold, it would tighten up a shallow pool of potential signal callers set to enter the free-agent market. Keep an eye on this one and the domino effect it could have on the quarterback market.

9. De’Von Achane’s two-way breakout

Did you win your playoff matchup in Week 16 on this Achane run?

You weren’t alone. Achane’s 30-burger not only propelled many fantasy managers to their league championship games but also put an exclamation point on an incredible second-year ascension for one of fantasy football’s top players. After several seasons of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle leading the way in South Beach, Achane emerged as the new face of the Miami offense. Not only did he improve as a receiver, but he also became the most productive player at the position in fantasy.

Achane broke Terry Kirby’s single-season record for the most receptions by a Dolphins running back. With two games remaining, he leads all running backs with 76 receptions, 579 receiving yards, and6 TD receptions — a rare trifecta. He is also second among all players with 629 yards after the catch, which is exactly what you’d expect from one of football’s most electrifying talents.

His season could have been even better. In games Tua Tagovailoa played, Achane averaged an incredible 22.6 PPG. If the season ended today, he would finish with 18.4 PPG — fifth-highest among RBs.

Achane is poised to settle into early ADP as a surefire first-round pick for 2025 drafts. However, he won’t be the only running back from the 2023 draft class who fantasy managers will aggressively target in their leagues.

10. The rise of the Year 3 running back

The 2025 fantasy first round will be jam-packed with running backs who will be entering their third season in the league. Achane will be joined by Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs. All three combine immense talent, great production and ideal roles. They are precisely the type of player who drafters can envision having their best year as a pro and becoming a fantasy league winner. Ageist drafters, unknown upside drafters, robust RB drafters, hero RB drafters… well, pretty much any kind of drafter will love getting the chance to select any one of the young trio.

Heading into Week 17, Robinson is third in the NFL with 1,616 yards from scrimmage.

Gibbs is right behind hRobinson with 1,596 scrimmage yards. He has scored 26 touchdowns in 30 career regular-season games.

Honorable mention goes to Chase Brown. He won’t be joining his fellow class of 2023 backs in the first round, but will enter the offseason with a ton of momentum after his red-hot second half of the 2024 season. From Week 9 on, Brown averaged 21.7 PPG — fifth-most at the position.

The Year 3 backs will be joined by the record-breaking Saquon Barkley, who will soon turn 28, and a few others who continue to shatter the “fantasy football age apex.”

11. But what about the old guys?

There will be a fascinating — some might say shocking — ADP development in 2025. Several older running backs are expected to gain ADP value compared to their 2024 price tags. This defies conventional wisdom. Trajectories for older players are supposed to point downward, and no position reflects the risks of rapid wear and tear like running back. Yet this year, running back scoring dominated fantasy football, with multiple older backs leading the charge. As a result, drafters will head into 2025 caring less about running back age than in any offseason in recent memory.

Barkley’s first season in Philadelphia was magnificent. He obliterated his ADP price tag, averaging 22.4 PPG. He set multiple franchise records and is just 162 yards shy of becoming the ninth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season. In my early 2025 PPR rankings, I have Barkley at No. 2 overall, and there will be strong arguments to select him at 1.01.

But Barkley won’t be the only back to see a significant rise in ADP value. Josh Jacobs, selected in the RB “dead zone” last summer, is likely to be unavailable anywhere lower than the mid-second round — or even the first — in 2025 drafts. His incredible season as the focal point of Green Bay’s offense, highlighted by 14 touchdowns, ensures it. At age 27, Jacobs is poised to rise 20 or more spots in ADP compared to 2024.

Alvin Kamara turns 30 this summer, but it’s hard to imagine him falling below his RB16 ADP from 2024 after averaging 19 PPG this season.

And what about fantasy football’s ageless wonder, Derrick Henry? Spoiler alert: drafters will enthusiastically select the soon-to-be 31-year-old even higher than they did in 2024. A vintage “Ghost of Fantasy Football Christmas Past” performance in Week 17 reminded everyone why fading Henry this season was bad for your wallet. The Texans, in particular, won’t forget his dominance anytime soon.

These older running backs aren’t the only players expected to see their ADPs rise. Stay tuned for more developments heading into the 2025 draft season.

12. An elite quarterback ADP correction

In 2023, early-QB drafting made a comeback. Players like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts were drafted at their highest levels in years, often as early as the second round. This season, however, the market pushed quarterback values down. Drafters “rewarded” Allen and Hurts for their 15 rushing touchdowns in 2023 with ADPs that dropped several rounds. Elite quarterbacks were simply not expected to return the same positional edge.

So, about that positional edge narrative. Lamar Jackson — the current QB1 overall — is averaging nine PPG more than the QB12. He is tied for the lead among quarterbacks with 39 passing touchdowns, while pacing the position with 852 rushing yards. Jackson has more rushing yards than any quarterback in NFL history and is only 27 years old.

Josh Allen was expected to have a down year by his lofty fantasy standards. The Bills lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in free agency, and a transition season was anticipated. That narrative, however, was completely shattered. Allen is currently the QB2 overall, right behind Jackson. For those who love spike weeks, Allen reminded everyone he excels at delivering them.

Expect both quarterbacks to not only rise in ADP but also potentially return to their 2023 draft levels.

13. The year of Ja’Marr Chase and WR revenge

There will be plenty of offseason debate about which player should be the WR2 overall — Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb and few more will have their backers. But there will be little-to-no argument about who the WR1 is.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 1.01 in 2025 drafts will be none other than Ja’Marr Chase.

Chase has completely dominated his position and is this season’s league winner. At only 24 years old, his reign at the top of the fantasy football world could last for years. While players rarely repeat as the top-scoring wide receiver, few have ever matched the sheer number of spike weeks Chase provided.

Chase is averaging 23.9 PPG — one of the best fantasy seasons by a wideout over the past 25 years. He and 2021 Cooper Kupp are the gold standards of what a true fantasy-smashing season looks like at WR. Chase has earned every penny of what will soon be a record-breaking contract.

But, you ask, “Theo, do we really want to be discussing early fantasy football rankings before Week 17 is even over?” Of course we do.

14. (BONUS!) Way-too-early 2025 PPR rankings

My current way-too-early top 25 PPR rankings for 2025 ( I am sure everyone will agree with me)

  1. Ja’Marr Chase — WR, Cincinnati
  2. Saquon Barkley — RB, Philadelphia
  3. Justin Jefferson — WR, Minnesota
  4. Puka Nacua — WR, LA Rams
  5. Bijan Robinson — RB, Atlanta
  6. Jahmyr Gibbs — RB, Detroit
  7. De’Von Achane — RB, Miami
  8. CeeDee Lamb — WR, Dallas
  9. Nico Collins — WR, Houston
  10. Amon-Ra St. Brown — WR, Detroit
  11. Brian Thomas Jr. — WR, Jacksonville
  12. A.J. Brown — WR, Philadelphia
  13. Brock Bowers — TE, Las Vegas
  14. Josh Jacobs — RB, Green Bay
  15. Malik Nabers — WR, New York Giants
  16. Ashton Jeanty — RB, TBD
  17. Chase Brown — RB, Cincinnati
  18. Drake London — WR, Atlanta
  19. Derrick Henry — RB, Baltimore
  20. Breece Hall — RB, New York Jets
  21. Christian McCaffrey — RB, San Francisco
  22. Joe Mixon — RB, Houston
  23. Bucky Irving — RB, Tampa Bay
  24. Trey McBride — TE, Arizona
  25. Kyren Williams — RB, LA Rams

(Top photo of De’Von Achane: Mark Konezny / Imagn Images)

 

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