There are plenty of different ways to build a great NBA team.

Some, such as the early-2000s Dallas Mavericks with Dirk Nowitzki, Michael Finley and Steve Nash, place their primary focus on offense — combining as many talented shooters and scoring threats as possible, with little regard for what happens at the other end of the court. Others, such as the 1990s-era New York Knicks, are built around rugged defenders such as Patrick Ewing and Charles Oakley, rather than an overwhelmingly efficient offense. (Those Knicks ranked among the top five in defensive efficiency nine times in 10 years from 1992-2001, but 19th or worse on offense seven times in the same span.)

Fast forward to this year and rising to the top of both extremes are the Knicks and Orlando Magic, two teams that halfway through the season have shown their strengths on offense (New York ranks second in the league) and defense (Orlando ranks third).

There’s a good argument to be made, however, that it’s best to seek balance when assembling a NBA title contender. Historical data backs this up: If we go back to the dawn of the 16-team postseason era in 1984, running a regression model to predict a playoff team’s probability of winning the NBA Finals based on its balance during the regular season — while controlling for its overall point differential per 100 possessions — we find that its title chances drop if it is better on one side of the ball or the other.

(For instance, a typical championship-caliber team whose offense was 5 points per 100 better than its defense, relative to the league, would be 7 percentage points less likely to win the NBA Finals than a perfectly-balanced counterpart with the same differential.)

Why is this? One explanation aligns with the tug-of-war between what NBA shooting coach Marc Campbell calls Game Theory Optimal (GTO) versus Fully Exploitative Play (FEP). Under GTO, a team maximizes its ability to beat many different opponents of different types — good and bad offenses, defenses, shooting teams, pick-and-roll teams, etc. But the playoffs turn into a chess match of FEP — where needing to beat one opponent four times in seven games is all that matters. If a team is significantly imbalanced toward one side of the ball or another, NBA coaches and players can quickly hone in on that weakness and exploit it over the course of a playoff series, in a way that wouldn’t matter as much during the regular season.

All of which is to say, if a team is off-kilter in one direction or another, it should think about balance before the playoffs begin April 15. Let’s dig into the 10 most imbalanced teams in the NBA this season — five on offense, five on defense — with an eye on how each could level up its weak side of the ball.

Note: NBA rankings, odds and stats through Monday, Jan. 27.

Jump to a team:
Clippers | Knicks | Lakers | Magic | Nuggets
Pacers | Rockets | Suns | Warriors | Wolves

Teams that must level up their defense

Playoff odds: 100%
NBA rank: No. 2 offense | No. 17 defense

Reason for the imbalance: New York has had a problem with balance going back to the 2022-23 season, when it began building the Jalen Brunson-led iteration of the franchise. That season, the Knicks ranked No. 3 on offense but No. 19 on defense, with Brunson, Julius Randle and RJ Barrett standing out as imbalanced players in that regard.

The Knicks seemed to be improving a year ago, ranking seventh on offense while rising to 10th on defense, but this year’s version is back to its old imbalanced self. It would be easy to point fingers at Brunson, an elite offensive talent who has been a part of the Knicks’ worst defensive lineups, but New York plays its starters together so much that everyone shares blame for this mediocre defensive showing.

What they can do to tip the scales back: For regular-season purposes, the Knicks could tap into their depth more — Cameron Payne has solid defensive numbers in 15 minutes per game off the bench — while the potential return of Mitchell Robinson from injury (he’s supposed to return in February) ought to make New York more balanced both by helping its defense and, let’s be honest, hurting the offense. (Robinson might also be a trade piece to improve the team’s rotation, per ESPN’s Bobby Marks.)

The Knicks’ 3-point defense, third worst in the league, should improve some by virtue of being a noisy, luck-driven stat. But with Brunson as the franchise cornerstone, New York will always to some degree be skewed toward offense. New York would benefit if Mikal Bridges, who was traded to the Knicks last June, channels some of his Phoenix-era defensive impact; he has been a negative defender by Estimated RAPTOR since his trade to the Brooklyn Nets in 2023.

Worst possible playoff matchup: If perennial New York nemesis Indiana (more on the Pacers in a moment) falls into a matchup with the Knicks as the No. 6 seed versus the No. 3, their high-octane offense could be a problem for this defense. Otherwise, a potential second-round date with the Boston Celtics looms.

Playoff odds: 32%
NBA rank: No. 9 offense | No. 24 defense

Reason for the imbalance: Though Mike Budenholzer has coached elite defensive units before with both the Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks, the deck was stacked against the Suns’ defense in some ways this season. This is an aging roster — second oldest in the NBA (behind Milwaukee) with an average age of 29.3 — whose best Estimated RAPTOR defender from last year (Jusuf Nurkić) has missed nearly half the season with various injuries, and whose two leading minute-earners (Devin Booker and Tyus Jones) have a history of significantly negative defensive metrics.

Kevin Durant used to be great enough at both ends to keep his teams from ever being too imbalanced, but he’s also 36 now and his statistical impact on defense is less than it used to be. That doesn’t excuse the inability to improve on flaws the Suns already had last season, though — namely, a lack of deflections, forced turnovers, defensive rebounds and contested shots.

What they can do to tip the scales back: Getting Nurkić on the court more would have helped after the former DPOY candidate missed a lot of time over the past few months. However, it’s difficult to see what kind of effect he will have after recently stating that he and Budenholzer “don’t have a relationship.” And as Marks writes, he is likely to be traded, given he has a cap hit ($18 million) that can actually be workable for deals under the CBA’s salary-matching rules. But he and Mason Plumlee have been part of the only two Phoenix five-man units that were actually good defensively.

And then as ESPN’s Brian Windhorst writes, Bradley Beal is a possible move if he could be convinced to waive his no-trade clause; Beal is the common thread in almost all of the worst defensive configurations of the Suns’ primary lineup.

Worst possible playoff matchup: If the Suns make the playoffs — which is doubtful — it would likely be as the No. 8 seed coming out of the play-in, meaning a date with an Oklahoma City Thunder team (No. 6 on offense, No. 1 on defense) that is anything but imbalanced.

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Playoff odds: 97%
NBA rank: No. 4 offense | No. 16 defense

Reason for the imbalance: The Nikola Jokić era in Denver has been consistently marked by teams tilted toward offense. In the nine seasons since 2016-17, the Nuggets have ranked seventh or better on offense every season … and 10th or worse on defense all but once. The lone exception, oddly enough, came last season, when Denver was No. 5 on offense and No. 8 on defense.

Such uncommon balance came with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope on the wing and Aaron Gordon playing a full season, which fueled an improved defensive effort that focused on running shooters off the 3-point line. But with Caldwell-Pope in Orlando and Gordon missing half of this season with calf troubles (while posting a career-low defensive Estimated RAPTOR), Denver is back to its old ways, relying on monster Jokić performances to power an offense-first approach.

What they can do to tip the scales back: In terms of existing personnel, it’s worth hoping a healthier Gordon can play his way back to his disruptive defensive form, as he’d previously posted an above-average defensive Estimated RAPTOR in six of the past seven seasons. (Though he has four games of zero steals and zero blocks in six outings since returning from his latest injury.) As Marks writes, trading Michael Porter Jr., who has a minus-0.3 defensive RAPTOR and whose lineups are allowing 2.1 more points per 100 possessions when he’s on the court, might also be a helpful move.

But talks, as mentioned by Windhorst, that Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine might be the return in a trade would only intensify Denver’s imbalance. LaVine is a great scorer but consistently rates below average in the defensive metrics — pairing him with Jamal Murray in the backcourt could create significant defensive challenges.

Worst possible playoff matchup: Denver will likely end up with either the No. 2, 3 or 4 seed in the West, which would potentially land it in a first-round matchup with the Dallas Mavericks. If that happens, watch out: Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving could have a field day with the Nuggets’ defense.

Playoff odds: 93%
NBA rank: No. 10 offense | No. 20 defense

Reason for the imbalance: Believe it or not, this season represents a balanced build by the Pacers’ recent standards. Last season, Indiana ranked No. 2 on offense but No. 24 on defense, spending most of the year looking like one of the most imbalanced teams in NBA history. This season, by contrast, they only have a 10-spot difference between their No. 10 ranking on offense and No. 20 rank on defense.

But still, Indiana has prioritized an offense-heavy mindset in a rotation led by Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, with T.J. McConnell, Obi Toppin and Thomas Bryant playing important roles off the bench. All have a consistent history of poor defensive Estimated RAPTOR ratings in recent seasons.

What they can do to tip the scales back: The Pacers have tried new tactics to address their defensive shortcomings, to some effect. They’ve paid much greater attention to getting back on defense in transition, at the expense of offensive rebounding. (They’ve gone from 15th to 29th in offensive rebound rate, but they give up the league’s lowest share of plays in transition as a result.)

That strategy can only help so much, given this roster composition — they might not have much flexibility to change that at the trade deadline (Feb. 6). They’re just under the luxury tax, and among their players with real trade value, only Aaron Nesmith has a better Estimated RAPTOR on offense versus defense this season.

Worst possible playoff matchup: Though the Pacers are more likely to be the No. 5 seed in the East, which would line them up against a Bucks team that ranks 11th on offense, we mentioned above that there is a chance they would face the Knicks in the No. 6-versus-No. 3 matchup. In a series full of firepower, the Knicks’ offense would punish Indiana’s defense every bit as much as the opposite would also be true.

Playoff odds: 57%
NBA rank: No. 13 offense | No. 22 defense

Reason for the imbalance: Ranking 15th on offense and 16th on defense, the 2023-24 Lakers were a balanced (if deeply average) team. This season’s Lakers have improved their ranking on offense, with LeBron James and Anthony Davis continuing to produce and Austin Reaves scoring more points per 100 possessions with a better 3-point percentage, a higher assist rate and a lower turnover rate. But the defense simply has not been there.

Among the 12 Lakers who have at least 100 minutes, only three — Davis, Cam Reddish and Dorian Finney-Smith — boast a positive defensive Estimated RAPTOR. And, shockingly, one of the worst ratings on the team belongs to James, who has seen L.A.’s defense give up 7.2 more points per 100 possessions when on the court versus off. After decades of being arguably the greatest all-around player in NBA history, age might be catching up to the 40-year-old on defense before it erodes his offensive skills.

What they can do to tip the scales back: The trade for Finney-Smith in December, which sent D’Angelo Russell in exchange for a far better defender, started to address the Lakers’ balance issue. According to Marks, Los Angeles has other tradable players, such as Rui Hachimura — who is slightly below average at both ends of the floor by Estimated RAPTOR (though he has a history of being worse on defense in years past) — but they have to be wary about taking on salaries that might move them into the second apron, making trades much harder.

The most painful move that could actually improve the Lakers’ balance, though, would be a trade involving Reaves (who carries a much higher rating on offense than defense).

Worst possible playoff matchup: The Lakers are probably bound for the play-in, and that could involve a collision with the No. 7-ranked offense of the Sacramento Kings. Between Domantas Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan, Malik Monk and De’Aaron Fox, Sacramento has many offensive weapons to throw at the Lakers’ suspect defense.

Teams that must level up their offense

Playoff odds: 92%
NBA rank: No. 29 offense | No. 3 defense

Reason for the imbalance: For Orlando, explaining its weak offense might seem obvious: The team has spent most of the season — all but 156 total minutes — with either one or both of its two biggest stars, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, in street clothes. But the issue of imbalance dates back to last season for the Magic, when the team’s big breakout was driven almost completely by its second-ranked defense and not its 22nd-ranked offense. (The losses of Wagner and Banchero simply made an existing problem worse.)

Coach Jamahl Mosley runs an exemplary modern defensive system, focused on denying 3-pointers and forcing long midrange jumpers, but the players necessary for that have struggled to find efficient offensive roles at the other end. Out of Orlando’s nine leading minute-earners, eight have a negative offensive Estimated RAPTOR, and seven are significantly better on defense than offense in the metric.

What they can do to tip the scales back: There’s no question that having Banchero and Wagner back, healthy and playing together, will bring Orlando’s offense more in line with its defense. The team’s offensive rating is 5.9 points per 100 better with that duo on the court than off. But beyond that, they also have a lot of movable assets, according to Windhorst, and a clear need on offense as the league’s most imbalanced team.

A couple of names that Marks floated on the trading block have been Cole Anthony and Gary Harris, both of whom struggle offensively; using them to swing a deal for an offense-first player would be a big win for the Magic.

Worst possible playoff matchup: Orlando is currently staring at the No. 7 seed in the East, and therefore a likely date with the play-in. None of the other teams in and around that mix (Detroit Pistons, Philadelphia 76ers, Hawks and Bulls) have defenses that can really make the Magic miserable, but the Celtics would be a nightmare for Orlando to try to score on if they’re the No. 2 seed.

Playoff odds: 72%
NBA rank: No. 22 offense | No. 2 defense

Reason for the imbalance: The Clippers might be the most bizarre entry on this list. Last season’s version of the team was also imbalanced … but in the opposite direction, ranking fourth on offense and 17th on defense. This wasn’t necessarily a huge surprise, either, as LA made a trade in early November for the notoriously offense-oriented James Harden, who ranked second on the team in minutes.

What’s shocking is that this Clippers team, with Harden leading in minutes — and Paul George gone and Kawhi Leonard limited to a handful of games — is No. 2 on defense and No. 22 on offense. For the latter, Harden’s trademark offensive efficiency is slipping (his True Shooting percentage, or TS%, is merely average this season) while LA ranks 22nd in made 3s per 100 possessions. And for the former, the team has leaned on a host of players (Ivica Zubac, Derrick Jones Jr., Kris Dunn and Nicolas Batum) known more for their defense than their offensive skills.

What they can do to tip the scales back: Like Orlando with the returns of Wagner and Banchero, LA is getting a scoring spark from the return of Leonard, whose presence is associated with an offensive rating 14.9 points per 100 higher for the Clippers when on the court. It’s also plausible Harden gains efficiency over the rest of the season — otherwise, this will be his lowest points per 100 possessions since his rookie year (2009-10) — especially with Leonard back from injury (albeit on a load-management plan).

Finally, P.J. Tucker‘s expiring contract could provide the trade ammunition, as detailed by Marks, to acquire more offensive firepower before the deadline.

Worst possible playoff matchup: The Clippers are jockeying with the Minnesota Timberwolves for the No. 6 seed in the West, meaning they might face the No. 3-seed (potentially either the Memphis Grizzlies, Houston Rockets or Nuggets) or fall into the play-in. Out of the group of potential opponents in that mix, Memphis and Houston have the defenses to completely lock down the Clippers’ scoring attack, as does Minnesota if somehow both teams pull first-round upsets.

Playoff odds: 28%
NBA rank: No. 18 offense | No. 10 defense

Reason for the imbalance: The Warriors’ balance has been all over the place in recent seasons. It surprised many, for instance, that the Splash Brothers-led Dubs revival that won the 2022 championship did it on the strength of the NBA’s No. 1 defense (despite an offense that ranked just 17th). But things had flipped over the past two seasons, with Golden State averaging a ranking of No. 8 on offense and No. 16 on defense, seeming to signal a return to the days of the Warriors shooting opponents into oblivion.

And yet, this season has seen another pivot — Golden State ranks 10th on defense but just 18th on offense. Some of that is due to a slight decline in Stephen Curry‘s scoring volume and efficiency, but it’s more because the other Warriors are struggling: Of Golden State’s top 12 most-used players, only three (Curry, Trayce Jackson-Davis and Moses Moody) have a TS% at or above league average.

What they can do to tip the scales back: Despite being very near the first apron line, the Warriors, according to Marks, do have some interesting trade chips, including expiring contracts, young players and picks.

Any attempt, as outlined by Windhorst, to get a second star to pair with Curry would probably be done with an eye on improving this offense, and jettisoning Dennis Schroder — the name that comes up most often in Warriors trade discussions — would be addition by subtraction, given his -3.3 offensive Estimated RAPTOR since joining the team in mid-December.

Worst possible playoff matchup: Any playoff-bound iteration of the Warriors will have to do it through the play-in, where Golden State would potentially have to run their mediocre offense through the defensive brick walls of either the Clippers or Wolves at some point.

Playoff odds: 80%
NBA rank: No. 15 offense | No. 7 defense

Reason for the imbalance: The Wolves were already lopsided last season — they led the league in defensive efficiency, but ranked 16th on offense, after ditching some of their worst defenders and getting a NBA Defensive Player of the Year performance from Rudy Gobert in his second season with the club. The hope was the continued development of Anthony Edwards as an elite scorer would mesh with the blockbuster Karl-Anthony Towns trade acquisitions of Randle (long an offense-first player) and Donte DiVincenzo to improve this offense without sacrificing on defense.

Such dreams of perfect balance have not yet come to fruition, however, as Minnesota’s offense has barely improved while its defense has taken a slight step backward. Randle has gotten a bit more efficient, but Edwards is scoring less per 100 possessions and DiVincenzo’s trademark two-way game has become tilted toward his defense.

What they can do to tip the scales back: Unfortunately, the Wolves’ moves in recent years have left them with little flexibility to further rebalance at midseason. They’re already into the second apron, and they have few salaries that might be compatible with a trade, according to Marks, that improves their rotation; they also owe multiple future first-round picks to other teams. Plus, their top two offensive players by Estimated RAPTOR — Edwards and Randle — already rank 1-2 on the team in playing time.

Worst possible playoff matchup: Similar to the Clippers, Minnesota might not want its offense to face the Grizzlies or Rockets’ defenses in Round 1 if it is the No. 6 seed.

Playoff odds: >99%
NBA rank: No. 11 offense | No. 4 defense

Reason for the imbalance: The Rockets’ renaissance in recent years — quickly transforming from a young, raw and undisciplined group to a title contender — always centered around defense over offense, between the choice to hire Ime Udoka as coach to the veteran acquisitions of Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks. Year 1 of Houston’s grand experiment saw the team finish ninth on defense and 20th on offense, but the former was supposed to catch up with the latter as the team’s young talent came into its own.

This has happened, to a degree: Houston now sits fourth on defense and 11th on offense, a far greater balance than before. But the Rockets still need to improve their shooting — they’re 23rd in 3s per 100 possessions and 27th in 3P% — to bring their offense even more in line with an elite defense.

What they can do to tip the scales back: There is a sense that, rather than making a small upgrade to address a targeted concern such as shooting, the Rockets would only shake up their roster-building timeline for a superstar, according to Windhorst. Perhaps that is true, but they are also under the tax and have expiring deals and other players with value on the trade market — both factors that would at least make improved offense a plausible goal for the deadline.

Otherwise, the challenge of finding more minutes in a crowded frontcourt for Tari Eason (22.8 minutes per game) and Cam Whitmore (16.4 MPG), both of whom carry positive offensive RAPTOR ratings, might be worthwhile.

Worst possible playoff matchup: Houston currently sits in line for the No. 2 seed in the West, but the team could realistically finish anywhere from Nos. 2 to 4, which might result in a first-rounding pairing with either the Clippers or Timberwolves — as we mentioned — a couple of defense-first squads that could make Houston one-dimensional.